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Hollinger's 2012 Draft Rater

Discussion in '2019 NBA Draft' started by redhotrox, Jun 18, 2012.

  1. redhotrox

    redhotrox Contributing Member

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    Interesting Insider read from a stats perspective...

     
  2. Egghead

    Egghead Member

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    draft Royce White
     
  3. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    I'm high on Quincy Miller as well.
     
  4. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    The Morris twins where 25 (marcus) and 27 (markieff) last year with DMo at 23.
     
  5. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I think Harrison Barnes is overrated by many, but putting his teammate John Henson in front of him is insane IMO. Beal is also way too low.

    Can't wait for summer league.
     
  6. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    His 2011 big board:

    1. Kyrie Irving
    2. Derrick Williams
    3. Tristan Thompson
    4. Jonas Valuncianas
    5. Kawhi Leonard
    6. Enes Kanter
    7. Kemba Walker
    8. Tobias Harris
    9. Alec Burks
    10. Jordan Hamilton
    11. Bismack Biyombo
    12. Brandon Knight
    13. Tyler Honeycutt
    14. Jon Leuer
    15. Nikola Vucevic
    16. Chris Singleton
    17. Jan Vesely
    18. Klay Thompson
    19. Norris Cole
    20. Iman Shumpert
    21. Nikola Mirotic
    22. Jimmer Fredette
    23. Donatas Motiejunas
    24. Greg Smith
    25. Marcus Morris
    26. JaJuan Johnson
    27. Markieff Morris
    28. Davis Bertans
    29. Kenneth Faried
    30. Jeremy Tyler
    31. Jordan Williams
    32. Bojan Bogdanovic
    33. Darius Morris
    34. Giorgi Shermadini
    35. Reggie Jackson
    36. Rick Jackson
    37. Brad Wanamaker
    38. Damian Saunders
    39. Nolan Smith
    40. Malcolm Thomas
    41. Travis Leslie
    42. Trey Thompkins
    43. Malcolm Lee
    44. Charles Jenkins
    45. Cory Joseph
    46. E’Twaun Moore
    47. Josh Selby
    48. Jacob Pullen
    49. Justin Harper
    50. Jimmy Butler
    51. Matt Howard
    52. Jamie Skeen
    53. Jereme Richmond
    54. Keith Benson
    55. D.J. Kennedy
    56. Marshon Brooks
    57. Isaiah Thomas
    58. Andrew Goudelouck
    59. Lavoy Allen
    60. Shelvin Mack
     
  7. redhotrox

    redhotrox Contributing Member

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    Hollinger should look into ADVANCED STATS and DEFENSE a lot more when doing his big board compilations. Seems kind of silly to rank basketball players almost strictly by their PER rating. I still like reading those PER projections though -- I can better see why Morey may be high on Teague. Others are also rumored to like him as a great late value pick…

    Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein :

     
  8. Egghead

    Egghead Member

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    Tony Wroten reminds me of a bigger version of Rondo
     
  9. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    Based on his last year, I think this thing is pretty legit. I mean you can't argue with the fact that his projections over the years for wings have mostly all been all-stars. This makes me want to research Dion Waiters now. Never seen him play. This makes me hope MKG slips to Cleveland, I want them to get a sure fire star.
     
  10. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    Well... just checked out a highlight of Dion. This guy is a MAN among boys. It felt like I was watching a real NBA player. I never felt that way when I was watching Beal or Barnes. This guy is going to be a star. He has handles, athleticism and everything. Even the spin move to the basket Kyrie Irving has. He definitely will be a steal for whoever picks him.
     
  11. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    No Parsons? Bad ranking system is bad.
     
  12. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Thank you for posting the article. It was a great read.

    I saw Waiters a couple of times this year in Syracuse this year and the image that sticks in my mind of the guy 3+ feet off the floor at full speed surrounded by bigs in the lane who are just watching him. Teammates and opponents alike. That kind of player, while exciting to watch, just scares me to death.

    Barnes - it is tough to tell about - when Marshal went down it did not look to me like he could create his own shot. But I only saw 3 games of his last season.


    I have gotten into several (volatile) discussions about point guards recently. I like Teague better than Lilliard and Marshal, an opinion that can be quite unpopular.

    Sully I think is ranked to high. He is Scola. Every time I watched him play I thought Scola.I can't figure out if he played better last year at 295 than he did this year at 270.

    Anyway thanks for the post again. I am going to read it again.
     
  13. Garner

    Garner Member

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    Teague and Marshall a coin flip.

    Interesting.
     
  14. mike_lu

    mike_lu Member

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    Greg Smith snuck in between D-Mo and Marcus Morris at 24 ...
     
  15. ObamaFan

    ObamaFan Member

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    I want Teague
     
  16. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    Hollinger put Damian Lillard at #18. I think his rater undervalues small school competition, and it shows in the way he undervalues Marshan Brooks last year.

    I do like Quincy Miller and Tony Wroten(they are Durant clone and Tyreke clone IMO), especially when they can be had in late first round like draftexpress predicted. Those 2 have allstar potentials and may only have the same bust potential as some of the top picks.
     
  17. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    You must be talking about a different Durant. The only one I know is Kevin Durant, who averagred 26 ppg, 11 rpg, 2 spg, and 2 bpg on 47%/40%/81% as a freshman. And there's no way you would compare that to a guy who got 10 ppg, 5 rpg, .7 spg and .6 bpg on 44%/34%/81%.

    So, please, tell me about this other Durant you must be speaking about.
     
  18. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    I'm talking about the size, handle&style. Obviously he's not Durant, otherwise he'll be the #1 pick. He's having a decent season off ACL injury, but has shown getting the athleticism back in the combine. He's a good value in late first round and ranked pretty high on Hollinger's rater.
     
  19. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    I'm also high on Quincy Miller, Royce White and Tony Wroten, and they are currently listed as 20,23,31 on drafexpress mock draft.

    Trade both 14&16 down to get late first rounders and "buy back" the pick obligation from Newjersy. Use the remaining to pick Quincy Miller, Royce White and Tony Wroten. All three have star potential. I believe they are the best values in the entire draft if we can get them in 20's or later.
     
  20. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    One more takeway from this: How ridiculously good Anthony Davis maybe.

    Here's from last year's draft rater edition:

    "The big man conundrum

    As I noted above, the Draft Rater has been really solid on perimeter players. On interior players, the results have been a bit more scattered. The problem has been "false positives." It has picked out all the guys who could play; it has just picked out a lot of other guys along with them.

    Top rated bigs, 2002-2011Player Rating
    Kevin Love 20.78
    Michael Beasley 18.36
    Greg Oden 17.69
    Tyrus Thomas 17.25
    Blake Griffin 17.14
    Andrew Bogut 16.90
    DeMarcus Cousins 16.86

    Michael Sweetney 16.70
    Tristan Thompson 16.21
    Curtis Borchardt 16.01
    Derrick Williams 15.97
    Greg Monroe 15.77
    Jared Jeffries 15.65
    Chris Bosh 15.57
    Derrick Favors 15.51

    "

    Anthony Davis/ Kentucky/ 22.23

    His model projects Davis to be significantly better than all those bigmen!
     
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