Have we taken the 3s, lay-ups and dunks philosophy too far?

Yes. I think we have. Metrics isn't everything. For instance jacking three's midway through the shot clock when you have a decent lead with 5 minutes left in the fourth is not wise. Slow it down. Grind out some points to make it harder for the other team to come back quickly.

 

I agree we have taken it way to far. We are crippling our defense jacking up 50 threes a game.Down the stretch with a lead, there is no point to take horrible 3 point shots. Get a good percentage shot.

 

I think we have

 

No for once the Rockets have an established identity and the team is built that way. The one thing you have to absolutely do with the GSW and Clev is be able to score the ball. That's why a lot of these teams that are built to win years ago realistically have no chance, because they simply can't score enough. that's just the reality of super teams like the gsw and clev.

 

Nah.

Threes, free throws, points in the paint is who we are. Be the best damn who we are period.

That means trying to force teams not equipped for shootouts into a shootout. That means half assing on defense to conserve energy for shooting threes. So be it.

 

I don't think we have taken it too far. I completely agree and data proves it to be the right Philosophy. Offensively it produces the best value per possession. Defensively if you restrict them you will be a top notch defense.

Where I think we have to adapt is end of game situations, where each possession is much more critical. When you only have so many possessions left you shouldn't be looking for the highest return per shot anymore, but the highest probability.

If your down 1pt for instance with 17seconds left. You should run your offense, not ISO, and look to create the best look.

Layup is still the best look if you can get it because it's around a 60% shot. But a mid-range that yields a 45% of going in is better than a 35% chance of a 3 going in.

It's this perspective that needs to be incorporated because while over the long run of the game the 3 yields a higher return it doesn't yield the best probability for points for one single possession.

But no, we haven't taken it too far.

 

The answer is yes and we would be more lethal if harden shot more midrange jumpers when certain things aren't clicking as well as they should.

But I hate this thread because there's no going back and we're in too deep man. Forget about it and let's see what happens in the playoffs

 

The problem that I have is that we seem content with contested threes over open midrange shots. I'm not buying that philosophy. In boxing you need to take body shots so your opponent drops their hands and then you take a head shot.

 

I feel like OP has made this thread before

 

No we havent.

People exaggerate what morey is about. He says in interviews that any open shot is a good shot.

He would prefer to out talent teams if he could but given the talent we have he believes this high variance style of play is the best shot we have at defeating the elite teams.

Morey would be all for midrange if we had a ton of talented midrangers in their prime. Im sure he would love to field a time with kobe and dirk in their prime if he could. He would be content to let them midrange and just out talent teams.

 

I don't think so.

We're a top 2 offense.

I wonder if we can take it further.

 

No it's all about situational basketball. Making the right decisions at the right time. Playoffs is a better time to ask this question. Not after a team like the spurs at home needing a hero type effort to beat us in a close game.

 

Like shooting ONLY threes or maybe running out a five guard lineup?

 

I see what your saying....but no. Only thing is on some instances you could take a mid range jumper, I believe, if you're going to get fouled and it not get called. Harden is deadly in midrange. I mean people miss putbacks and regular layups too I really dont see how its much different then missing a mid range shot. I know layups have a high percentage to be made as with open 3's are of more value to us. Instances are far and few in between that a mid range jumper should be shot. For example im totally fine with Harden taking the mid ranger but not Anderson for some reason. Luis Scola I would be ok with. I think Harden was expecting a foul and didnt get it. I dont know why he thought he would. A step back mid range jumper would have sufficed. If he miss, then he misses. I also believe they should have forced Kawhi off the line and made them take a tough 2 instead of him rising up for a open look at the basket.

We have the 3rd best record. When was the last like we been this many games over .500? No it has not gone to far. It is only the beginning.

 

Its ironic that the shot that Leonard took was a 3 pt shot with 10 secs left in the shot clock with Nene all over him. It's strange that one game completely invalidates what has gotten us to this point. We have lost 2 very close games to a team who has been using a system that has dominated the league for the past decade. If we only made one more 3 ptr in either of those games...

 

No, the philosophy is good. But, we need to continue to upgrade the roster to fit that philosophy. The Rockets rank only 15th in the league in 3pt percentage. Lots of room for improvement. Morey needs to find the best long range shooters in the world and bring them to Houston.

 

This thread again?

 

This is accurate.

This system hasn't reached its peak yet and has room to improve.

IDK if we could ever be top 2-3 is 3fg% because of volume, but if we could escape the middle and get to the top 5 or so that's an insane amount of improvement given our volume.

For instance we have attempted 2595 3 pt attempts at .364% which is good for 14th in the league. This has yielded 2833.74 puts or 44.28 pts/gm.

If you increase that 3fg% to top 5 or say, .376% (which would tie clips and wizards for 4/5). This would yield 2927.16 pts or 45.74 pts/gm.

That's 1.5 extra points per game for 1 extra 3pt%

For reference,
1) Spurs at 39.3%
2) Cavs at 39.1%
3) Gsw at 38.3%

See a pattern?

 

Not yet

We need to take it further and evaluate shooting free throws from the 3 point line to see if gets you into rhythm and increases 3 point field goal percentage