1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Harden and Giannis stats against teams over 0.500

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by T.MAC, Mar 24, 2019.

  1. T.MAC

    T.MAC Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2013
    Messages:
    110
    Likes Received:
    102
    Well it's obvious that at the end of the season, MVP gonna be one of these two guys. Individually, it's evident that Harden has been having a better season, he has been a beast offensively and his defense has been considerably improved and now, he is the best players in the league and deserves to win MVP, but, these days what most of us are hearing in the media, is that since Giannis is best player in the best team, MVP is his right, so I was curious to know what are their teams stats in terms of winning and losing against best teams in the league and also their personal stats against those teams, so I gathered some information and like to share it with you.
    There are sixteen teams, including Rockets and Bucks, with winning percentage of 50 or more (right now most the teams have played 72 or 73 games). 9 of those 16 teams are in the west (Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets, Trail Blazers, Thunder, Jazz, Clippers, Spurs and Kings) and 7 of them are in the east (Bucks, Raptors, 76ers, Pacers, Celtics, Pistons and Nets). I have summarized some stats in two tables:

    [​IMG]

    Well in terms of winning percentage, Bucks and Giannis have better record compare to Rockets and Harden, as we all know, Giannis is playing in much weaker conference, however, we can see in this table that both of them having almost the same record against best teams in the west and it worth mentioning that 4 of those 9 losses of Rockets to over 0.500 teams in the west, are for the beginning of the season, in the 11-14 start. But the most interesting thing for me in this comparison is winning percentage against teams with the record of 0.600 or better. There are not much difference between performance of these two teams and players, and if we had won the game against the Bucks, Harden would have had a better winning percentage compare to Giannis. The other fact worth mentioning is winning percentage of Bucks with Giannis in games with >0.500 teams in the east, they were absolutely dominant, but for our, again one of those four losses to eastern teams was at the beginning of the season and another one was the OT145-142 loss to Nets which Harden was incredible with 58 points and if we had won these two games, we would have had better stats than Giannis and Bucks against eastern teams. It has been a season of ifs for our unfortunately.

    And in the second table, I have compare personal stats of Harden and Giannis against over 0.500 teams:

    [​IMG]

    This is where I believe Harden overtakes Giannis. I'm not gonna say anything about it, you can just look at the stats and enjoy those number of James, the guy has almost averaged 40 points!! against best teams in the east.

    In conclusion what I can see from these stats is that against best teams in the league, in term of winning, there is not much difference between team performances of James and Giannis, but individually Harden has been a beast and clearly deserves to win MVP.
     
    #1 T.MAC, Mar 24, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2019
  2. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2000
    Messages:
    20,440
    Likes Received:
    4,308
    Nice effort.

    That said, these look pretty similar to their overall stats and w/l, etc. Not sure how it advances one argument or the other.

    If you are FIRM in best player on best team, you are choosing Giannis. If you have wiggle room in that, you are choosing Harden.

    If you just don't like Harden that much, you are choosing Giannis.

    Nobody "doesn't like Giannis that much". How can they? He's a Nigerian Greek dude with a huge smile super committed to a small town team that hasn't been good in decades and he has a girlfriend and brothers that are trying to and he really improves every year so that's great!!!!!!!!

    Because of the above narrative, Harden will be 2nd. ;) Again. WHich would give him 3 second places finishes, tying him with KD and MJ. Only Larry and Jerry West finished second 4 times.
     
  3. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    31,582
    Likes Received:
    5,386
    I don’t think the second table says all that much without at least also looking at minutes, turnovers, shot attempts, and probably also +/-.

    I agree Harden’s counting stats that you presented look more impressive. How that translates to comparative impact on winning is less clear. A lot of work has shown that PPG is overrated in distinguishing who the best players in the game are in terms of impacting winning, and all the stuff Giannis does that Harden can’t do has historically been underrated.

    So I’d be hesitant to draw any conclusions just from a few counting stats like this. Daryl Morey once quipped “Someone created the boxscore, and they should be shot.” That’s a basic recognition that our traditional instincts on how “good” a player is based on the boxscore is often very misleading.
     
  4. biina

    biina Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2018
    Messages:
    494
    Likes Received:
    248
    Think the MVP race will be influenced heavily by who wins on Tuesday.

    We lost the first game with the Greek having the more efficient game. Harden has to do better on Tuesday while bucks will be missing key players.
     
    s3ts and coyotetex like this.
  5. photojoe

    photojoe Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    2,867
    Likes Received:
    2,497
    I really dont know how anyone can make an honest argument for Giannis anymore. That is no knock against him or against the season that the Bucks have been having.

    But come on- over and over and over this season, Harden has done things and we have heard "the first time since Wilt" or "the first time since Jordan" or "the most since Kobe". I've lost track of how many categories that has happened in. It's honestly insane. It's historic.
    Meanwhile, the argument fir Giannis is basically "yeah, he's having a good season on a good team"
     
  6. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
    Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2013
    Messages:
    20,205
    Likes Received:
    9,150
    Harden will guard Giannis in the post at some point. Can't wait.

    Harden needs to avoid getting his shots blocked on offense. Bad look and people will remember.
     
    Hakeemtheking likes this.
  7. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    31,582
    Likes Received:
    5,386
    It’s more than that.

    First, I don’t think the MVP vote should be decided on historic individual games. Harden’s peak performances this year exceed Giannis’s, I’m pretty sure on that. I think the vote should be based on body of work over the entire season (not just a particular stretch of games after a low point in the season, either).

    Second, if you look at what they have done over the entire season, and even just ignore defensive impact, both players are putting up historically impressive numbers. Harden with his combination of PPG and overall scoring efficiency. Giannis with his combination of PPG, RPG, and APG and overall scoring efficiency.

    Third, I actually think the per game numbers undersells the impact on winning Giannis has had for his team. Giannis is putting up his crazy numbers playing only 33 minutes a game. His on-court dominance leads to the Bucks outscoring the opposition by a large margin when he’s on the floor (+12 per 100 poss) giving his coach the room to rest him a bit longer. The Bucks are 51-14 in the minutes with Giannison on the court. The Rockets are 42-26 in the minutes with Harden on the court (+4 per 100 poss).

    So, yes, Harden is probably doing more to fill up a boxscore over the course of an entire game. But I don’t think it follows that he is therefore contributing more to winning.
     
    RocketRed84 and BigM like this.
  8. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2017
    Messages:
    286
    Likes Received:
    1,202
    Effect on winning is such a hard thing to measure. The Bucks are a FAR better team without Giannis than the Rockets are without Harden as evidence by this - https://hoopshabit.com/2018/11/06/milwaukee-bucks-dominating-with-and-without-giannis-antetokounmpo/

    Without GA, the Bucks are an elite, top 3 team in the East from a net rating standpoint. Without Harden the Rockets are (presumably) a lottery team.

    Based on the stats, the Bucks should be able to consistently win without Giannis. In the Spurs game, if Harden doesn't go off, the Rockets (who shot less than 33% other than James) get embarrassed by the Spurs. The Golden State win notwithstanding, the Rockets are a bad team when Harden sits.

    I think Harden is more valuable to the Rockets than Giannis is to the Bucks. The Bucks w/o GA are probably still a conference title contender. The Rockets without James might be a bottom 3 team in the West instead of a top 3 team.
     
  9. topfive

    topfive CF OG
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2002
    Messages:
    13,039
    Likes Received:
    19,219
    All I know is that actual MVP voters should have their voting privileges revoked if:

    They vote for Giannis because "he's the best player on the best team," yet voted for Westbrook during his first triple-double-average year.

    -OR-

    They vote for Giannis because "Harden doesn't play defense," yet voted for Westbrook, Curry, D-Rose, Dirk, etc. the years they won MVP.
     
  10. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2012
    Messages:
    12,601
    Likes Received:
    11,062
    I dont think giannis gets enough credit around here for how dominant a season he is actually having.

    By no means is "best player on best team" the only reason hes a top MVP candidate.

    He has a higher ts% than harden. They have near identical win shares but giannis has a better ws/48.

    When you put their per36 stats side by side, for a more minute by minute representation, giannis is averaging 30, 13 and 6 while Harden is averaging 35, 6 and 7.

    The guy deserves significant praise. He is the runaway MVP any year except this one because what Harden is doing is remarkably historic.

    I believe 100% Harden deserves the MVP. I've ran out of words to express how awe struck I become while watching him play.

    But by no means should we shiit on Giannis to prop Harden up. Appreciate watching both of them.
     
  11. Realjad

    Realjad Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2005
    Messages:
    3,112
    Likes Received:
    1,224
    Best player on best team doesn't even make sense.

    IF you wanted to do best player on best team then thats what the FINALS MVP is for.. literally given to the best player on the newly crowned best team.

    I say 'best player on best team' doesn't make sense because all the teams don't have an even schedule. There are teams like the Bucks this year who overall play inferior competition, the numbers can be scewed to the degree of difficulty of the conference and also the division you play in.

    TO make a good analogy.. lets take college basketball or college football.

    You can very well have a team that is undefeated, 15-0 and yet they will be ranked under a team that is 12-3 all because of the degree of difficulty of their schedule.


    tl/dr
    The best player on the best team award is the finals MVP- which literally represents the best player on the best team-- not the season mvp
     
    Relativist and Houstunna like this.
  12. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2001
    Messages:
    23,054
    Likes Received:
    23,703
    Honestly, the NBA Awards and MVP doesn't have to be be hard.

    • MVP: James Harden
    • Defensive Player of the Year: Giannis Antetokounmpo
    • Coach of the Year: Mike Budenholzer

    Award their proper impact and call it a day.
     
  13. Juxtaposed Jolt

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2010
    Messages:
    13,659
    Likes Received:
    3,892
    Disagreed with this. The last 3 GSW titles were Durant, Durant and Iguodala. You've seen what happens when GS has no Steph Curry, who'd I argue is actually the best player on that team. And the Iguodala pick, while well-deserved, means that he was the best player on that team? Far from it.

    My point is, FMVP tells the story of the best player of that particular 7-game series. It does not always mean that particular player is the best player on the best team.
     
    coyotetex likes this.
  14. Rockets4lf

    Rockets4lf Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2016
    Messages:
    1,731
    Likes Received:
    1,531
    kinda pointless, people that get to vote for the mvp are mostly dumb or know nothing about basketball. It's all media. Harden would be looking at his 4th MVP if they are actually not ret arded.
     
    adw and BigShasta like this.
  15. mike2k132

    mike2k132 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2009
    Messages:
    2,357
    Likes Received:
    1,751
    I just think mvp is what u gonna remember bout that season. I'm not gonna remember anything Giannis did. At some point some announcers gonna say this has been done since James harden n wilt. Let that sink in
     
    BigShasta and topfive like this.
  16. valorita

    valorita Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2009
    Messages:
    3,038
    Likes Received:
    1,638
    Honestly, in order for Harden to win, the following scenario must happen.

    1) Bucks fall from #1
    2) Giannis doesn’t have any hallmark games
    3) Rockets keep 3rd
    4) Harden increases! his torrid scoring
    5) Rox & Harden wins head-2-head matchup vs Bucks

    Not impossible, but unlikely.
     
    Matt78777 likes this.
  17. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2001
    Messages:
    23,054
    Likes Received:
    23,703
    Bucks will not fall from #1
    Giannis might not have any hallmark games. His hallmark game to date was the loss to the 76ers. Thanks Philly!
    Rockets keeping 3rd is dicey since Portland's schedule is easier. BUT, semantics, "Rockets might have the 3rd best record in the West"
    I don' think Harden needs to increase his scoring....but maintaining would be good
    Rockets can't "win" the head to head with the Bucks. They can only TIE or lose it.
     
  18. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2001
    Messages:
    23,139
    Likes Received:
    5,018
    You're not factoring in that Harden has done more with less help than Giannis. The Bucks injuries have just occurred now. That's an intangible too, which fits in with no-stats.
     
    everyday eddie and Houstunna like this.
  19. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2005
    Messages:
    15,906
    Likes Received:
    4,646
    same winshares

    and Harden with better BPM

    and LOL at Harden not contributing to Rockets winning he's not like your boy WB
     
  20. napalm06

    napalm06 Fire Bill O'Brien
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2008
    Messages:
    17,945
    Likes Received:
    11,785
    Honestly, I prefer advanced stats and math breakdowns (this is a step in that direction), but the voters don't use this. They use emotion and story telling.

    If we really wanted to break down MVP we should look at both player's performance rated against in the league on a variety of efficiency metrics, proportional contributions compared to teammates, regression analysis of how much their various actions are associated with winning, etc.

    But... we'll just pick who we want. Clutchfans will anoint Harden the MVP, and the media will pick their favorite.
     
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now