Haralabos Voulgaris on Rockets Small Lineup

Haralabob is the man. Big time NBA gambler(using analytics via blackbox) + hardcore poker player = win in my book.

Regarding Parsons at PF:

I have no doubt we will see this quite a bit especially early on in the season as Casspi is still getting accustomed to our system. However, there are some issues with it.

1. First and foremost, by sliding Parsons to the 4, you are taking our best perimeter defender(until Brewer breaks into the rotation) OUT of the perimeter. On a team who's perimeter defense was challenged last year, that is about the last thing you want to do. This is my biggest issue.

2. By playing a super small lineup of 1-1-2-3-5, we have defensive mismatches at THREE positions, as opposed to merely one when you go 1-2-3-3-5. Of course, we would have offensive mismatches at three positions as well, but I am not sure if such an extreme is worth it over extended minutes. This lineup will definitely be used, as it is likely our best 5 talent-wise(excluding Asik who is a bad fit with Dwight), but it may be best to save it for in game situational purposes or even to close, rather than to start.

3. Pretty simply, Casspi > Garcia. Casspi is younger with room to grow, and most importantly, has shown to be a better player in the past in Sacromento with superior RAPM + other metrics.

Overall I think we will see all sorts of mismatching lineups with Parsons at the 4, Lin at the 2, Garcia all of the place and maybe some Brewer. But to start off the game, I am fairly confident that they will go with Casspi. Like 99% confident.

 

Pause.

 

What's wrong with banging big guys? You gonna tell Carl and Pat how to live their lives? I don't see them judging you jerks.

 

How well does the current smallball backcourt compare to the other combos under Morey? Anyone have the numbers?

There's something about the Lin-Bev combo that doesn't seem to be as dynamic as the past line ups the Rockets have played.

 

The announcement that we have two starting point guards tells me that there will be no fixed starting lineup other than Dwight, Parsons and Harden. And even those three will shuffle positions based on the team we are playing. Things are about to go from smart to brilliant.

 

If anything you get used to it after a period of time.

 

wait a couple of weeks of regular games till the Rockets FO have their hands on their Sportsvue data. then we will have more evidence of which line-ups will work best vs. which match-ups.

What DAL did earlier vs. DH-Asik was draw them out of the paint. They couldn't get back into the paint fast enough to defend or get the rebounds. we should assign one of them to lay back and patrol the paint at all times maybe. anyway with MEM and other big line-ups, I think DH-Asik will work.

let's just be patient. and we need to find someone who is the best at passing inside to DH.

 

Super small lineup will be depends on how well Dwight recover. If he continue his beast mode of Orlando days, then match up issues will not be an issue.

But I would actually prefer to see a huge-small ball lineup of Harden, Garcia, Parson, Casspi and Dwight. Dwight post up, Harden/Dwight PNR, Harden ISO, with 3p gunners everywhere. On defense, play zone. Would/should work wonderful in certain matchups.

 

? Beverley is a better perimeter defender. Lin played about as well as Parsons last season (i.e. Meh). Garcia was a much better perimeter defender and playing Parsons at 4 gets him more minutes. I like the idea of Parsons at the 4, but still think it may be a couple of years away as he adds strength.

If Parsons can split minutes with Casspi at the 4, the Rockets will be a stunning offense. For that to work, Dwight has to be in top form defensively. I do think he is underselling Casspi. Casspi looks good at the 4. I think right now that the Dwight Casspi Harden Beverley Lin lineup may be most effective in more situations as Casspi won't be dominated on defensive side.

BTW. I'm a very big fan of both Lin and Beverley.

 

Beat street ball line up in the nba

 

Nice analysis. Parsons is my first choice for PF but he will not be effective against the 15 best power forwards in the league. As they say - the more you run over a cat the flatter it gets. Casspi has the same problem.

 

This lineup will put Lin/Harden/Parsons into mismatch defensively.

The good thing is all three are big for their own positions(think about the combination of height/reach and vertical/strength), so the mismatch here is somewhat manageable.

 

So many interchangeable parts on this team. Easy to rosterbait.

 

It will be our most lethal lineup, and will cause more problems for the opposing team than for us:

1. Bev (love this dude, btw, may he be a Rocket for a looooong time)
2. Lin
3. Harden
4. Parsons
5. Dwight

With the exception of Garcia alongside Harden rather than Lin, depending on matchups and who has the hot hand and whatnot.

I still think the Asik/Howard lineup is going to look like a couple of Olympic shotputters learning how to play basketball, and the above-mentioned lineup won't look the same when Morey tinkers during the season. But while we have it, it'll kill more than a few opponents.

 

If Beverley, Lin, Harden and Parsons are on the floor together, Harden, not Parsons, will likely spend most of the time as the "PF", i.e. guarding opposing PFs.

The reason for this is simple: 1.) Harden is not as good as a perimeter defender and 2.) Chandler Parsons has no butt

This butt thing may sound silly to some, but having sand in your pants is essential to guarding bigger guys in the post and boxing them out -- especially if undersized. This is why Harden and not Parsons was guarding Ibaka in last year's playoffs and why Delfino, not Parsons, was guarding opposing PFs when sharing the floor together in small-ball lineups.

Otherwise, I do very much agree with Haralabos that it will be one of the Rockets best lineups, though I'm with CH that it's not one you want to go to a ton in the regular season to avoid wearing guys out.

 

You picked Casspi from the onset and for that you deserve some props. But the problem you have always had is you follow Morey and then never veer until way past the obvious. You have no consistent history of evaluating talent. You have no way of knowing what he will do going forward. None of us do. His history is a mixed bag and his sample with the rockets is small. He had a terrible game last outing and played slightly better last night. He has been a consistently good rebounder but his defense is still a work in progress. Is he the lights out shooter in Asia or the guy who shot 5 for 18 the last 2 games. Dmo has outplayed him the last 2 games.

I am inclined to believe Omri is struggling because he has a lot on his plate. He has to excel on defense more and that hurts his freestyle light it up shooting right now. It seems once he gets his d assignments down his offense will pick back up. But that's a hunch or gut feeling that is not guaranteed. And then there is that other big factor that seems to have hurt him in the past and that's his confidence. He seems like a fragile kid. If he struggles early on will that effect his game. There are no guarantees. I suspect he will get past all of that and be a decent contributor. But right now I prefer Lin Beve Harden and Parsons over Casspi. You can substitute Casspi When Parsons needs a rest but Garcia needs minutes. Garcia has proven to be the superior shooter and he plays hard nosed defense at the 3.

I hope Casspi turns into the player you think he will be. But Lots of questions to be answered and anyone who thinks they already know the bench players roles is just fooling themselves. Don't get stuck on Casspi like you did with Morris.

 

Some muscle in your rump is important. But Parsons worked out hard this offseason to get more strength and he is more equipped to guard some PF's then he was last year. Not Zach Randolph but certainly Dirk.

 

I could not have said it better. Great post.