Also known as the thread that will make you look like a fool a few years from now. Let's try not to exclusively pick guys who're projected top-10 as somebody you really like. Anthony Davis is only fair game if you don't like him. Three guys or more for each category. I'll start: Guys I don't like at all: Andre Drummond - Uber athlete with lots of 'upside', but the guy quite simply is a terrible basketball player. He's got no clue. I understand the desire to go with a high upside guy, but Andre Drummond would scare the hell out of me if I'm a GM taking him with one of the top picks in this draft. PJIII - I think he'll show flashes every now and then and might potentially even turn out to be an decent role player down the road, but I believe taking him in the lottery would be a mistake. To me he's a guy you take a flyer on in the 20s. Quincy Miller - He will need to put on some weight (which is a concern due to his knee & skinny frame) and become a better shooter. Didn't show up in a lot of the games against ranked opponents. Also not sure how his game translates. I'd stay away. Guys I really like: Jeremy Lamb - I don't care that he looks like he doesn't care, nor that he's only 185lbs. This guy can flat out play. I see him becoming the third best player on a championship team. No way do I take Barnes or Sullinger over him. Royce White - If you want to take a risk in the first round, this is the guy to take the risk on. He has his fair share of flaws like every other prospect, but this is one of the few guys in this draft that could be truly special. Jeff Taylor - Can't miss prospect. Instant impact player. Will have a long NBA career. I don't think he's nearly as good as coachbadlee thinks he is, but pretty good nonetheless. Bonus category, for those who're interested: Potential sleepers: Kyle O'Quinn - I've only seen highlights, but I like a lot him from what I've seen. Productive college career. Great measurements. Seems to have a head on his shoulders. Miles Plumlee - You want to add more size? Do it in the 2nd round. Drummond, Leonard and Fab Melo are all risky. There is no risk in a guy you take in the 2nd round. I have little doubt that Plumlee can play in this league. Can he be more than a backup? Who knows, he might. Let's find out. JaMychal Green - I've only seen a few video clips of Green, but there seems to be lots to like. Good length. Athletic. Decent rebounder. Good shot-blocker. Plays hard. Productive throughout his college career. Might be worth a flyer. Projected 2nd rounders Daryl Morey likes: Draymond Green - Undersized PF/tweener? Check. Productive college career? Check. Junior/Senior? Check. Played in one of the major conferences? Check. Yup, this sure seems like a Morey guy. Khris Middleton - SF with good size? Check? Undervalued due to injury? Check. Junior/Senior? Check. Played in one of the major conferences? Check. Yup, this, too, seems like a Morey guy. Kyle O'Quinn/Miles Plumlee - Has Morey learned that it might not be the worst idea to take a flyer on a C in the 2nd round? I think so. Both O'Quinn and Plumlee are seniors and were productive/efficient in college. In think at least one of them is on Morey's radar.
Guys I like: Bradley Beal: After Gilchrist this is the best wing player in the draft. His wingspan will more then make up for his 6'4'' frame. but his skills are what set him apart. He is a good shooter who can be great, he has the strength and athletisicm to become a top defender at his position, and a good slasher for the same reasons and his shooting ability. Andre Drummond: It is rare that a big man comes out with his size and athletisicm. Now he is still a work in progress, but that should be expected with his age. For all the love Davis gets his offense is not that much further along then Drummond's. When I see Drummond, I immediatly thing of Bynum. That's the benchmark for him. Now whatever team drafts Drummond needs to have a solid big man mentor on board. I wouldn't expect much from him his rookie year, but starting in year 2 and moving forward, with the right coaching and development this kid can be a force down low for a long time. John Henson: Has the type of frame that will cause oppponets fits on both ends of the court. Still not a finished product, can/should add about 10-15 pounds of muscle to fully utalize his size. Still room for growth on offense but the foundation is solid. Defensively this guy is a monster and will be a force in the paint. Also will be great in transition and beat his man down the court consistently. Guys I don't like: John Sullinger: I think college may have been as good as it gets for this guy. I worry that he may be a little undersized while not being in the best shape possible. I don't see him being able to get his the same way he did in Ohio State. I don't know if there's more upside then Glen Davis for this kid and that is not enough to warrent a possible top 10 pick. Harrison Barnes: Much like Sullinger, there was no improvement after his freshman year. I worry that he may not develop all the skills necessary to be a premier wing in the NBA. I can see his career playing out much like fellow UNC'er Marvin Williams which is not bad, but not going to cut it when it comes to a possible top 5 pick.
I'm with you on the Royce White RMS Titanic cruise across the Atlantic. Could be great. Could be terrible. But, he seems worthy of a late draft pick to see which side of the coin he ends up on. (Plus, his hands are huge! Who doesn't love a draft pick with gigantic hands!)
Hmmm, I copied and pasted some of your stuff Guys I don't like at all: Andre Drummond - Uber athlete with lots of 'upside', but the guy quite simply is a terrible basketball player. He's got no clue. I understand the desire to go with a high upside guy, but Andre Drummond would scare the hell out of me if I'm a GM taking him with one of the top picks in this draft. Jeremy Lamb - Did not win on a talented UConn team. Is rail thin and has to play off a good point guard. Is not a creator. Will have trouble defending his position in the NBA because of his weight. Lackadasical. Just don't like him, especially high in the draft. Guys I really like: Brad Beal - NBA skillset, was offensively proficient and efficient as a freshman and has good NBA defensive potential. Jared Sullinger - NBA skillset, was offensively proficient and efficient in two college seasons and has good NBA post defense potential. Damien Lillard - NBA skillset, was offensively proficient and efficient in his college career and has the necessary size and quicks to be a good NBA defender. Royce White - If you want to take a risk in the first round, this is the guy to take the risk on. He has his fair share of flaws like every other prospect, but this is one of the few guys in this draft that could be truly special. Jeff Taylor - Can't miss prospect. Instant impact player. Will have a long NBA career. I think he winds up being a starter in his rookie season. Arnett Moultrie - I think he's gonna be a stretch 4 and will be very similar to Sam Perkins when it is all said and done with the ability to go in the paint when he has a mismatch and the ability to step out to the 3 when he's playing a power 4 that wants to hang in the paint. Andrew Nicholson - Serious NBA skillset and great attitude to go along with it. Flying under the radar. Great work ethic. Would love to have him on my team and watch him develop. He will be a huge sleeper if he falls into the second round. He will outperform his draft slot if he goes later than 20. Frankly, I think he's a top 10 player in this draft. Bonus category, for those who're interested: Potential sleepers: Kyle O'Quinn - Productive college career. Great measurements. Seems to have a head on his shoulders. NBA big man skillset. Is better than most third bigs on NBA rosters and if drafted in the second round, will be making about 1/5th to 1/10th what those guys make with more production. Will Barton - Highly skilled offensive player with the size to play SG in the NBA. He does everything Jeremy Lamb does but only better. Has had an attitude issue. If he goes second round, he could be a steal. Kevin Jones - Undersized PF that just knows how to play the game very, very well. Not athletic, won't win any races or dunk contests. But one of the most skilled ballers in this draft. Miles Plumlee - if he goes in the second round, here's another steal for some NBA roster to stash as their third big paying him a little bit of nothing for two years. He's like O'Quinn, better than over half the third bigs on NBA rosters and will be making a pittance of what most of them make. Guys that scare me that I could be wrong about PJIII - One of the 3 most talented players in this draft. Haven't liked him since he came out of high school and I watched him work out and listened to him interview. My gut tells me he's dumb as a box of rocks and will never be able to put it together mentally, that he just plays by the seat of his pants and he can't think his way through a game to be truly great. What scares me if he is so uber-talented that he could very easily be a better, longer Lamar Odom (not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer either), which would make him a sick NBAer. I have had him on my do not like list for two years now. But when I watch him play...I get scared that I may be missing the boat and penalizing him too much for his lack of bball iq. He's got as good an NBA skillset and talent as anyone in this draft. Ugh! MKG - I know he's going to be a good NBA player for many years. But I just don't see superstardom in him. But I could be dead wrong. He could develop into something very special. I just don't see it. But it scares me to say he won't be a superstar. Dude is one hard-working dude. Gotta respect that a lot. Tony Wroten, Jr. - Super talented baller. I've felt that he's too me-dimensional, like McGrady, always wanting to make the pass or the shot and not a good enough passer or shooter to do that. Another guy that I don't think has the mental capacity to become great. But he is super-talented. And I could be wrong. Projected 2nd rounders Daryl Morey likes: Kyle O'Quinn Will Barton John Jenkins Scott Machado Tomas Satoransky Miles Plumlee
Looking strictly at likely first-rounders.... Guys I really like: Anthony Davis Thomas Robinson Damian Lillard Guys I kinda like: Jared Sullinger Jeremy Lamb Kendall Marshall Terrence Ross Tyler Zeller Royce White Guys I'm unsure of: Terrence Jones Bradley Beal Harrison Barnes Dion Waiters Austin Rivers Tony Wroten Guys I don't like: Andre Drummond MKG PJIII Quincy Miller Fab Melo Meyers Leonard John Henson Arnett Moultrie
I don't want to speculate on who Morey would like, but otherwise I like the rules of HmmmHmmmm. Players I like: Sullinger: I'm not saying this guy is going to be a definite All NBA player, but I think at this point he is getting too much and undue criticism. Yes he can't jump, but that is not the end of the world. He really reminds me of Kevin Love. He has that outside shot, he is an on the court leader, he has good ball skills and the beginnings of a post game. If he puts the work into his game and his rebounding that Love has (and I think he is the kind of guy who might do so), then he could be a really special player. Players I don't like: Harrison Barnes: I've never liked this guy. He has Tweener written all over him. He does not have the speed and explosiveness to be an elite perimeter player, does not have the strength to go into the post, and does not have the smartness of someone like a Battier to excel despite all that. He's the type of guy who can star at the college level but not at the NBA level, but who won't be able to make the adjustment to solid role player. Sleepers: J'Covan Mother effing Brown. Being in Texas I'm surprised more people don't mention this guy. The dude is tough, defends with tenacity, has a good outside shot, plays with confidence, can take it to the basket, is not slow or short. He actually reminds me of Lowry, but a little less strong and with a better natural shot. Even though the guy was a scorer at Texas, that was because the Horns sucked -- he is actually a pretty good floor general. Much like Avery Bradley, his draft stock would be a lot higher if he wasn't on an overrated team coached by a coach who I think I hates all of his players.
These are all possible 14 and 16 picks (not surefire top 5 picks like Davis or Beal that we won't get without a trade) Guys I really like: Jared Sullinger (doubtful he drops to 14 but I think he could be really good) Meyers Leonard (looked good in his first real season, good FG%, blocks, athletic) Jeremy Lamb (if he's there at 14 we should strongly consider him) Guys I like: Royce White John Henson Terrence Jones Guys I like with a later pick?: Tony Wroten Moe Harkless (nobody talks about him, could be a steal) Royce White Will Barton Drew Gordon (a superb rebounder, definitely worth a late second or 1st rounder) Festus Ezeli (his per 40 stats are really good, but why didn't he play more?) Guys I don't like: Fab Melo (Bust) Austin Rivers (overrated) Tyler Zeller (I just don't think he'll be good. This guarantees that the Rockets will pick him, however. Then I will have to root for him, of course.)
I agree with you on 2 of 3. I think Barnes could be a good player. I really agree that Sullinger is facing the "he's a good player, let's just start to invent reasons why he won't be successful" curse. Happens around draft-time, such as with D. Cousins recently (though the reasons are different). The JCovan pick is nails. As a mid to late second round pick he is a STEAL. He is instant scoring off of the bench and every team could use that. If he plays off the bench and plays against other backups then I think his future in the league is guaranteed. Could average 10-12 points off the bench in limited minutes. That's a regular rotation player right there.
I'm actually convinced that, as the draft evaluation process continues, that some of the smart GMs and teams are going to wake up on J'Covan and that he will be a late first round pick. If you look at the draft order, I really think the Bulls (with the Rose uncertainty principle in full swing) or the Thunder (who tend to not make mistakes) will end up drafting him.
Players I'd have most confidence in: High Picks: Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Mid 1st Round Picks: Jeremy Lamb, Arnett Moultrie, Jared Sullinger (as mid 1st round pick), Thomas Robinson (as a low top 10 pick), and Damien Liliard (as mid 1st Round pick). Low 1st Round Picks: Evan Fournier, Royce White, Tony Wroten, Marquis Teague, and Kendall Marshall (as a 20s pick) 2nd Round picks: Festus Ezeli, Fab Melo, William Buford, and definitely Tony Wroten (if he falls into the 2nd round) Players I'd have more confidence in: High Picks: Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Damian Lilliard (after the top 7 picks) Mid 1st Round Picks: Austin Rivers, Terrence Ross, Andre Drummond (as a mid 1st round pick), Kendall Marshall, Terrence Jones, and Perry Jones (out of the top 10 and possibly high teens) Low 1st Round Picks: Dion Waiters (as low first round pick), Festus Ezeli, Fab Melo, and Moe Harkless (if he falls out of the top 25). 2nd Round picks: Khris Middleton, Scott Machado (one of the few pure point guards in the draft), Henry Sims, and Kostas Papanikolaou. Players I'd have less confidence in: High Picks: Andre Drummond, Jared Sullinger (as a high top 10 pick, top 5), Perry Jones (as a top 10 pick), and Jeremy Lamb (as a top 6 pick) Mid 1st Round Picks: Meyers Leonard, Moe Harkless, and Dion Waiters (as high mid first round pick or top 10 pick), Fab Melo (as anything higher than a late 1st round pick), Low 1st Round Picks (most of these picks will turn out to be adequate players): 2nd Rounder: ????, everything is up in the air at that point. Examples: Andre Drummond going to Houston at #16 or Milwaukee at #12 is a much less risk than him going to Washington at #2. Fab Melo as mid 1st round pick is a big stretch, he'd get into bust territory at that point. Melo staying in the low 1st round and high 2nd round area is just right. Though, I suspect at some point The Rockets will try to pick up Baylor's own Quincy Acy or Kevin Jones from West Virginia.
I will take Andre Drummond. Other than Davis I do not see anyone that has superstar potential. Drummond is a 5 (the hardest spot to fill) and has the body and physical ability to be a top 2 center in the NBA. I know he had a poor freshman season, but he was very young, not in an ideal situation and I believe will mature some. Yes Drummond is a risk, but it is harder than ever to get a superstar, and Drummond has that ability.
Players i like: Thomas robinson brad beal john henson arnett moultrie Royce white Players i dont like: Andre drummond Harrison barnes Damian lillard Jared sullinger Fab melo
really like: Beal, MKG, Jeremy Lamb, Doron Lamb, Henson, White, Moultrie, Nicholson, Harkess sorta like: Sully, Drummund, Jones, Barnes don't like: Leonard, Rivers, PJIII, Miller
Guys I really Like Andre Drummond- Very unpopular pick. Most guys believe he will be a bust, he is a high risk and high reward type player. I love his athleticism, he showed very good strides late in Big East play. He has great size, and he's only 18 years old. Drummond will ether be Dwight Howard or DeAndre Jordan. Give him sometime and he will be a superstar. Austin Rivers- Another unpopular pick. The guy is clutch, and can make big time plays. He's aggressive offensively he can take his man to the basket and is a very good shooter. He's very coachable and has a desire to get better everyday. Kendall Marshall- Reminds me so much of Rajon Rondo offensively. His jumpers suspect but he's a phenomenal passer and a team player. A real floor general, that I could easily see averaging 8 APG his rookie season if he's a starter. Others: J.Lamb, A.Davis, MGK, Beal and Royce White Players I don't like Thomas Robinson- He has fantastic potential. But when I look at him I see a 6'8 PF, trying to play the 3 in the NBA. Our last lottery pick tried doing the same thing and played in front of him at Kansas. Meyers Lenoard- Seen him play many times last year, wasn't impressed enough to view him as a lottery pick. 2nd round Steals: Marcus Denmon, Kris Joseph, Will Barton
Players I love : Terrence Ross, Moe Harkless, John Henson, Tyler Zeller and Perry Jones because I feel bad for him. Players I hate : Jeremy Lamb, doron lamb, Harrison Barnes, Myers Leonard , and lillard
