GSW could be at $300m salary by 19-20 season

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by theDude, Jun 1, 2017.

  1. knote32

    knote32 Contributing Member

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    Yes it is.

    Just because it is history does not mean that it should be that way forever. There are lots of terrible things in history that needed changing. Dunking used to be outlawed too, should we stick to no dunking? Three Pointers? It's the quality of the competition and the quality of the game that is most important. If you think this year is a good example of those things, I'm afraid we could not disagree more.
     
  2. knote32

    knote32 Contributing Member

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    You think they would all agree to split 100 million, as opposed to taking home 50 million more dollars a season each? Upwards of 250 million over 5 years?

    :D
     
  3. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    I will wait out this year and see what happenz, breh. Precursor to all that happens in the next years.
     
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  4. knote32

    knote32 Contributing Member

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    Oh no I think we are screwed man. No way Adam Silver makes the crazy changes to the cap that I suggest. We are stuck with this mockery.
     
  5. mrm32

    mrm32 Member

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    I say Klay Thompson either gets traded or ends up leaving when his contract is up. No way he can be happy with his role knowing he can be a top 2 guy on a championship team.
     
  6. Icehouse

    Icehouse Contributing Member

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    But there is nothing terrible about super teams, especially not as far as the league is concerned. The one decade where they didn't have them, they almost folded (the 70's). Super teams have been great for the league (60's, 80's, 90's, 00's and this decade). If you are an adult fan of basketball then you fell in love with a league that had a few superteams that kept winning everything. If you didn't care then, then your only issue is players having more input on where they go. At the end of the day the talent level on teams is the same.

    Where was the quality of competition when Russell played? Where was the quality of competition in the 80's, when 8 teams won titles? Where was the quality of competition in the 90's, when 8 teams won titles? Or the 00's, when 7 teams won titles?
     
  7. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  8. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    Just shown on ESPN

    Year__ | Salary | Luxury Tax | Total
    2017-18: $138.6M | $42.8M | $181.4M
    2018-19: $154.1M | $90.4M | $244.5M
    2019-20: $174.5M | $198.6M | $373.0M
    2020-21: $177.9M | $222.7M | $$400.6M
     
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  9. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member

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  10. RocketDream

    RocketDream Member

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    That's quite a lot.

    The Nets' owner, Mikhail Prokhorov, was initially willing to go as deep into the tax as necessary and ignore luxury tax implications. He gave up on that, but that might have also been because his team was mediocre. Mediocre + outlandishly expensive is not a good combination. The Warriors have a chance to put together one of the great runs in NBA history--one wonders if their ownership, Lacob/Guber, will be willing to pay unlimited amounts while this core is contending for titles and then perhaps cheap out afterwards. They are moving into a new stadium in San Francisco in a couple of years.
     
  11. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    The Warriors "superteam" has 2 more years left, max. The luxury tax increasing from $90 million to nearly $200 million is guaranteed to break them up.
     
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  12. ghettocheeze

    ghettocheeze Member

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    Yes, but the owner Joe Lacob, is a Silicon Valley venture capitalist at Kleiner Perkins who understands how to maximize valuation over time. Warriors' value has already reached $2.6 billion, up nearly 600% from the $450 million he paid for the team in 2010.

    So, I think he's in it for the long haul. If Warriors can win multiple championships over the next 3-5 years, his investment might be worth $4 billion by the end of the decade. That would be a phenomenal 10X valuation multiple in 10 years -- the holy grail of Silicon Valley investments.

    I could see Lacob sell the Warriors at the end of their championship run, cash out, and take his windfall.
     
  13. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    I feel so bad for them. :rolleyes:
     
  14. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    Can the Golden State Warriors afford a dynasty? The price will be unprecedented

    Even as the favorites to win their third NBA title in four years, the Golden State Warriors have work to do, including difficult decisions to make on Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and the rest of the roster over the next three years.

    Golden State's front office, led by GM Bob Myers, knows that the salary cap and luxury taxes will challenge its ability to keep this group together and that the financial penalties will be significant if the Warriors retain their core.

    Including an expected $168 million in salary and tax this season, Golden State projects to spend more than $1.1 billion through 2020-21. As one league executive told ESPN, "Finances are the only thing that will break up this Warriors team."

    Let's look at all the likely and potential maneuvers, decisions and costs facing the Warriors as they try to continue their historic run.

    The returning roster

    The 2018 offseason script will look familiar to last summer's for the Warriors.

    Curry is not a free agent, but a focal point once again will be Kevin Durant's player option, along with replenishing what could be a depleted bench while faced with luxury tax restraints.

    With their top six players returning (including Durant either opting in or signing a new contract), the Warriors have $128 million in salary committed, $5 million above the projected luxury tax line.

    Under contract in 2018-19
    Player Salary
    Stephen Curry $37,457,154
    Kevin Durant $26,250,000 (Player option)
    Klay Thompson $18,988,725
    Draymond Green $17,469,565
    Andre Iguodala $16,000,000
    Shaun Livingston $8,307,692
    Damian Jones $1,544,951
    Jordan Bell $1,378,242
    Jason Thompson* $945,126
    Guaranteed salaries $128,341,455

    *Previously waived and stretched

    The options for Durant

    Durant will essentially face the same three options as last summer, albeit with more long-term consequences and a higher salary amount:
    1. Opt in to his $26.3 million contract
    2. Sign a one-year, $30 million contract (with a player option for a second year)
    3. Sign a four-year, $158 million contract with a starting salary of $35.4 million
    The first two options would have Durant enter the summer of 2019 with full Bird rights, eligible to sign a five-year, $219 million contract when the salary cap is projected to rise from $101 million to $108 million. Durant is not eligible to sign a five-year max contract in July because he has early Bird rights.

    Of course, Durant could bypass all three options and sign another discounted contract. However, unlike last summer, when his lower salary helped the Warriors keep the bench intact, Golden State's owners would really see only tax savings if Durant took a discount again.

    The Thompson and Green super-max dilemma

    The Warriors are on a collision course when it comes to the designated player veteran extension (DPVE), otherwise known as the super-max contract.

    If Klay Thompson and Draymond Green both earn All-NBA honors this season or Thompson is All-NBA while Green is named Defensive Player of the Year for a second consecutive season, the two will become DPVE eligible -- Thompson in 2018 and Green the following year.

    Curry is in the first year of a $201 million super-max contract signed in July, while Durant is not eligible for one after signing as a free agent. Because teams are permitted to sign only two super-max contracts during the life of the current collective bargaining agreement (until 2024), Golden State will face a decision to choose Thompson, Green or neither.

    A Thompson extension next summer would be for five years and $219 million, with a starting salary of $37.8 million beginning in 2019-20. If there is no extension in place, Thompson would enter unrestricted free agency in 2019, though super-max-eligible only with Golden State and only if he has hit the All-NBA criteria. The Warriors could offer the shooting guard a five-year, $188 million contract with a starting salary of $32.4 million in 2019-20 if the super-max is off the table.

    The other alternative for Golden State would be to move Thompson before he reaches free agency. Although it's hard to imagine the Warriors breaking up the Splash Brothers, a trade could either significantly trim a luxury tax bill that could exceed more than $200 million in 2019-20 or return multiple pieces to bolster the rotation around Curry, Durant and Green.

    Thompson will be highly sought after in 2019 if the Warriors bypass an extension but don't pursue a trade. Teams such as the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers could roll over cap space next summer to 2019 with the opportunity to sign the best shooting guard on the market. However, signing with a new team might reduce Thompson's guaranteed money by about $50 million, given that a new contract elsewhere would be worth four years and $139 million.

    Building the bench

    The draft


    A key reason for the San Antonio Spurs' sustained success has been their ability to identify first-round talent late in the draft. When an injury sidelines two starters (Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard), former first-round picks Dejounte Murray (No. 29 in 2016) and Kyle Anderson (No. 30 in 2014) are ready to step in.

    Golden State has not found that same success in recent years. Although 2015 first-rounder Kevon Looney is averaging a career high in minutes (10.4), Golden State elected not to pick up his fourth-year option for next season. Additionally, 2016 first-round pick Damian Jones has not appeared in a game this season, spending the season with the Warriors' G League team in Santa Cruz.

    With $100 million tied up in four players, the Warriors have to hit on draft prospects to have some type of stability in building the bench. If they don't, the focus shifts to one-year minimum contracts and a continual turnover of players.

    After not having first-round picks in 2014 and 2017 because of the 2013 Andre Iguodala trade, the Warriors own all their future first-rounders.

    Golden State has found success buying draft picks in the second round. In consecutive seasons, Golden State drafted Patrick McCaw and Jordan Bell; both picks were bought for a combined $5.9 million. The Warriors are without a second-round pick in June (traded to Denver) and will have $5.1 million at their disposal to purchase a pick.

    The restricted free agent: Patrick McCaw

    The former second-round pick has early Bird rights based on his signing a two-year contract in 2016, so Golden State can offer a contract up to $8.7 million (105 percent of the average player salary).

    After breaking into the rotation last season, McCaw has seen inconsistent playing time this season. Still, the 22-year-old is regarded as a top target for teams in July based on his age and versatility, even with the restricted tag.

    Because the Warriors are protected by the Arenas provision, another team can sign McCaw to an offer sheet starting at only $8.6 million (the non-taxpayer midlevel), but a team with cap space can backload the contract in Years 3 and 4 to make things more difficult for the Warriors (as the Nets did to the Heat with Tyler Johnson).

    Potential McCaw offer sheet
    Season Salary
    2018-19 $8.6 million (non-taxpayer midlevel)
    2019-20 $8.9 million
    2020-21 $11.2 million
    2021-22 $11.3 million
    Total $40 million
    Average $10 million (cap space available)

    Golden State would have the right to match the offer sheet and average the contract over four years for cap purposes ($10 million per season). By letting McCaw go, the Warriors would have only the minimum to replace him.

    (...continued...)
     
  15. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    (...continued...)

    Other free agents

    Golden State will need to make decisions regarding its veteran free agents: Zaza Pachulia, Nick Young, David West, Omri Casspi and JaVale McGee.

    The Warriors can bring back a group that has an average age of 32.8 (albeit with championship experience) or turn to free agency and look to get younger. The youth movement would come with restrictions. Because of the high salaries of their stars, the Warriors will have only the $5.3 million taxpayer midlevel and minimum exceptions.

    Golden State does have more flexibility when it comes to bringing back its own free agents, though that would come at a cost. Pachulia, West and McGee have early Bird rights and can be signed to new contracts up to $8.7 million. Young and Casspi have non-Bird rights and can receive a 120 percent increase of their previous salary (Young up to $6 million and Casspi up to $2.8 million).

    Where Golden State does have an advantage in free agency is the potential of a nuclear summer. With cap space crunched, 20 teams are expected to have only the taxpayer or full midlevel to sign free agents, so the Warriors can snag a key contributor who wants to join a title contender, as they did with Pachulia, West and Casspi.

    How much will everything cost?

    Let's say Durant opts in on his $26.3 million contract and the Warriors elect to sign McCaw to a starting salary of $6 million, while using the $5.3 million taxpayer midlevel on another piece and going bargain shopping with the minimum exception to fill out their bench. Factor in their first-round pick, and the Warriors' payroll next season projects to be $147.3 million. Golden State would have a luxury tax bill of $61 million, an increase of $29 million from the 2017-18 season.

    That's a conservative projection; the cost could run higher. The tax figure would increase to $77 million if Durant were to opt out and sign a one-year, $30 million contract with non-Bird rights. And a combined $93 million in projected luxury taxes in 2017-18 and 2018-19 is only the tip of the iceberg.

    The $400 million team

    By virtue of being in the tax three of the past four seasons (2015-16, 2017-18 and 2018-19), Golden State would be considered a repeater tax team for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons.

    If they don't ink Durant to a long-term deal in 2018 and extend Thompson or Green, three of their four core players -- Durant and Thompson in 2019 and Green in 2020 -- will become unrestricted free agents with the chance to walk. Those luxury tax concerns won't go away even if all three players reach new, discounted deals.

    Combined with Durant's and Thompson's projected max salaries and the repeater tax, Golden State is expected to have a record-high $225 million in tax penalties and $178 million in team salary. That, of course, is if both players are signed for the max.

    On the low end, let's say both players shave $7 million off their projected first-year salaries and expand that cut across the length of the deals. Although the Warriors' payroll would drop to $164 million, Golden State would still have a $133 million tax bill for a total savings of $106 million. The Warriors can also find some savings by cutting Shaun Livingston's $7.7 million salary (only $2 million guaranteed), not using the taxpayer midlevel and declining Jones' fourth-year $2.3 million option, replacing those roster spots with minimum contracts.

    Keep in mind that that there is no installment plan when you pay the luxury tax. During the summer of 2020, Golden State would wire the NBA a league-record $225 million if Durant and Thompson are signed for the max. Even with revenue from a new building and the current national television contract, Warriors owner Joe Lacob will have a hard time hitting the send button.

    Here's how the salary sheet would look in 2019-20 if the Warriors can bring everyone back at expected value:

    Under contract in 2019-20
    Player Salary
    Stephen Curry $40,948,000
    Draymond Green $18,539,130
    Andre Iguodala $17,185,185
    Shaun Livingston $7,692,308
    *Patrick McCaw $6,000,000
    Damian Jones $2,305,057
    2018 first-round pick $1,917,350
    Total $93,870,788

    *Projected three-year, $18 million contract

    Free-agent signings in 2019-20
    Player Salary
    Kevin Durant $37,800,000
    Klay Thompson $32,400,000
    First-round pick (No. 30) $2,050,420
    Tax midlevel $5,671,000
    Minimum exception $1,604,677
    Minimum exception $1,604,677
    Minimum exception $1,604,677
    Minimum exception $1,604,677
    Total $84,340,128

    *Does not factor in restricted free agent Jordan Bell

    Looking ahead to 2020-21, the Warriors' total costs could drop significantly, even when factoring in a $33.7 million max contract for Green. That's because the luxury tax threshold is expected to rise from $131 million (2019-20) to $136.7 (2020-21), making the Warriors' massive salary less punitive. Golden State projects to have a smaller luxury tax bill of $177 million.

    The downside is the loss of Iguodala and Livingston. The Warriors would then have to rely on the development of McCaw as well as their 2018, 2019 and 2020 first-round picks when it comes to bench production.

    Warriors' projected salary and luxury tax (2017-21)
    Season Salary Tax Total
    2017-18 $135,356,914 $32,209,264 $167,566,178
    2018-19 $147,277,454 $61,040,453 $208,317,907
    2019-20 $178,210,916 $224,779,141 $402,990,057
    2020-21 $177,071,412 $177,439,531 $354,510,943
    Total $637,916,696 $495,468,389 $1,133,385,085

    For comparison, the Boston Celtics -- with the best record in the NBA and a stable of players either on the rise or in their primes -- are projected to spend $600 million less over the same period, with no luxury tax payments.

    Celtics' projected salary (2017-21)
    Season Salary
    2017-18 $109,873,910
    2018-19 $122,000,000
    2019-20 $127,000,000
    2020-21 $132,000,000
    Total $490,873,910

    Golden State does not absolutely have to trade one of its four All-Stars, but keeping them together will cost in terms of finances, roster flexibility and the bench. Warriors ownership will need to weigh the tax hit versus the ability to put a championship product on the court each season, and the front office will have to hit on draft picks or find useful minimum contract players to have any kind of depth.

    But as one league executive told ESPN, "There are 29 owners that would take this Warriors roster even if the cost was $495 million in luxury tax penalties."
     
  16. Ziggy

    Ziggy Contributing Member

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    They can swap Klay with someone else and still be favorites to win it all any given year.
     
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  17. Vivi

    Vivi Member

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    That's exactly what i think will happen at some point.
     
  18. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    I think draymond is the one to go. He will decline the fastest imo and has a backup currently in training in Jordan bell.
     
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  19. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    1) Durant will probably take a paycut to help them again on the promise of getting the full 5 year max in the 2019 offseason.
    2) Can trade Klay
    3) Draymond won't need a supermax

    They are going to disappoint everyone by not needing do TRULY break up the team. They will at least be weakened a little by losing Klay but will probably be able to trade him for valuable pieces.
     
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  20. Ziggy

    Ziggy Contributing Member

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