GSW could be at $300m salary by 19-20 season

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by theDude, Jun 1, 2017.

  1. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member

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    It is theorized that the Warriors could have a $300m salary team in the coming seasons. Could someone show how the salaries and tax would break down in order to reach that number? Thanks in advance.
     
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  2. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    I'm not doing the math so will just say even if their top 4 all got $35 million a year that's still only $140 million. Fill the rest with vet minimums.

    So if the $300 million is close to accurate it has to do with luxury tax.
     
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  3. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  4. ghettocheeze

    ghettocheeze Member

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    $300 million sounds inaccurate. The salary cap for 2018 is projected to be $101 million. Under the current CBA, the max salary is 35% with Bird rights. So, $35 million is the most a player will be making. Unless the cap increases dramatically by 2020, there is no way to have a payroll of $300 million even with 4 max players.

    Also, this would break the league altogether. With the current revenue sharing model among teams, no way owners would agree to subsidizes the Warriors dynasty at the price of $300 million.
     
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  5. Ziggy

    Ziggy Contributing Member

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    In other words, Nike is willing to pay him MORE to preserve Warriors' core.
     
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  6. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member

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    I'm not really interested in whether or not they actually get to that point (or if it's smart decision to do so). I'm just curious what the salaries and tax would look like in order to get to such an astronomical number. I don't think the Rockets or many other teams could get to that figure even if they wanted to (based on players currently on their rosters).
     
  7. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    do they mean all the contracts, not just one season?
     
  8. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member

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    Actually, it's the tax revenue from tax paying teams that subsidizes other teams.

    But I agree that it seems like it would be very difficult to get to that figure.
     
  9. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member

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    Maybe that's what it is. But the article links to a tweet claiming payroll would be $600M over two seasons, so I assume they are talking per season.
     
  10. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    I agree with @JayZ750 that the number , if true, would include tax.

    That said, here's some additional math, player salaries can exceed the max, since Max is a calculation for just FIRST yr money. So raises are percentages of precious year salary, not tied to potential flat-lining or decreasing caps. So Player X signing a max this year could forever be the highest paid player in his tenure group, if his raises outperform the cap, and subsequently outperform increases of Max first yr salary

    But still, $300 must be including tax. I can't see them getting close

    @ghettocheeze younsiad the owners wouldn't allow it because they be "subsidizing" it. But wouldn't the reap a lot of tax money from it too
     
  11. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    That is clever sponsoring.
     
  12. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    There is no way the 300 million is per year, the salary cap is 102 and luxury cap is 122, GS would be stupid to pay 180 million above that, are they going to hand out 10 max contracts?
     
  13. knote32

    knote32 Contributing Member

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    Owners/League need to fix this situation. NBA is broken. Make Durant play for 5 million If he wants to stay with the Warriors. :D
     
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  14. napalm_black

    napalm_black Contributing Member

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    The Golden State Warriors can suck it for being a superteam. They'll figure out some way to keep attracting ring-chasers, and the league will help them accommodate it. Although in my opinion It's in any league's best interest to preserve parity, or risk alienating all of the smaller markets. That's the purpose of a salary cap. But the NBA is more star-driven and less team-driven than the NHL/MLB/NFL and it ain't close. Forget this league of pansies and divas. If something doesn't change by next season, I probably won't be watching much. Sports are just entertainment, yes, but the definition of entertainment varies. If you just want to watch the Globetrotters vs Washington Generals, you'll get that with Golden State. But I prefer some intrigue and uncertainty.
     
  15. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    GSW were garbage for 20 years. They built through the draft and now people will sign there to play for less. None of their core guys were top 5 picks either.
     
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  16. napalm_black

    napalm_black Contributing Member

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    And that's perfectly fine; until you add Kevin Durant to the equation. I don't know if you heard -- he signed with Golden State after losing to them last year! They're probably going win 70+ games and sweep the playoffs now. :p
     
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  17. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Yep. I'm not a cap expert, but my understanding is that the luxury tax certainly can add up. Said I wouldn't do the math... but, say for simple math, if the Warriors are at $150 next year - and I don't think they should be that high, if Steph and KD get $35 that's $70, plus another $35 or so for Klay/Dray = $105, then fill out 11 spots even at a $2 million average that's $127... so unless they resign Iggy at a big number again, they should be at $130 million or less, but for math, let's assume $150 million. The luxury tax line is projected at $121 million so they're like $29 million over the luxury tax line.

    According to Coon http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm - they'd be paying $1.50 per $1 over on the first $5 million, $1.75 on the next $5 million, etc., etc. If my math is correct, then on $29 million of over the luxury line spending, they could potentially have a $80 million luxury tax hit. Which when added to the $150, would get them at $230 million, which is a huge number.

    But again, if they are just at $130 million then their luxury tax amount is closer to $14.5 million, MUCH MUCH more manageable.

    And they shouldn't be much different the following year, since Klay and Dray are locked up that year as well.

    The big issue will be 2019-2020, when Klay is a free agent... AND if they're already over the tax the prior two years, being over the tax line again after resigning Klay puts them in the repeater tax territory.

    Assuming 3 max guys at $35 million per year (Steph, KD, Klay new deal), and $18.5 million for the final year of Dray's deal, that's $123.5 million. Assume another $40 million for the rest of the team = $163.5 million. Assume a luxury tax line at that point of say $135 million. So that's $28.5 million over that assumed luxury tax line. And assume repeater tax at that point. I think it's something like $107 million in luxury tax, which would put their total salary + tax spending around $270 million, so getting close to that $300 million number.

    If they then wanted to keep Dray at a max deal the next offseason, it would indeed get INSANELY expensive for GSW.

    That said, they are moving into a new arena, are now one of the top valued franchises in the league, so I think they will be willing to pay A LOT in total payment every year.

    AND... if each of the guys was willing to say take a $5 million pay cut to keep it rolling [seems unlikely on its surface since arguably 3 of the 4 are underpaid, 1 severely already... but if they would], that would for example save $15 million in salary in that year they have to resign Klay... which takes the luxury tax they'd have to pay that year down to $38.5 million from the $107 million, and would take their total payments in that scenario down from $270 million to $187 million.... so a HUGE difference.

    That's why you are hearing rumblings about KD potentially be willing to take a pay cut.

    Sorry for the long post... can't guarantee math is 100% right, but seems close.
     
  18. ghettocheeze

    ghettocheeze Member

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    Here's a back of the napkin calculation I made using 2018 baseline numbers as a model:

    Salary Cap: $100 million
    Luxury tax threshold: $125 million

    Curry, Durant, Thompson, and Green each at 35% max salary or $35 million, which totals $140 million.
    Add another $25 million minimum for bench and veterans.
    Projected salary: $165 million.

    Excess over threshold: $40 million

    Luxury tax bracket ($20 million over the threshold): $3.75 per dollar in excess
    Therefore, 3.75 * $40 million = $150 million

    So, that put the salary ($165 million) + luxury tax ($150 million) = $315 million

    Again, this only a quick calculation, but it's possible to get a $300 million figure with salary and tax.
     
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  19. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    It is possible, but just to note, Klay and Dray are locked in at like $16-$18.5 million for the next 1-2 years, so they are 3 years away from 4 max guys. Also the tax calculation stair-steps up, you don't take the $3.75 amount by the whole excess over the luxury tax.

    Basically it won't be completely unmanageable until likely 2020/2021...
     
  20. ghettocheeze

    ghettocheeze Member

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    That's what the article is saying, by 2020 the Warriors will have 4 max players and that's what puts them at the $300 million figure. Also, my calculation was crude, but you are right the brackets go up in increments. I just took a shortcut to illustrate that it's possible to get to that number. Here are the actual tax brackets and math.

    Luxury Tax Brackets:
    Tax rate (lower to upper limit) = incremental maximum

    1.50 ($0 to $4,999,999) = $7.5 million
    1.75 ($5,000,000 to $9,999,999) = $8.75 million
    2.50 ($10,000,000 to $14,999,999) = $12.5 million
    3.25 (15,000,000 to $19,999,999) = $16.25 million
    3.75 ($20,000,000 to $24,999,999) = $18.75 million
    4.25 ($25,000,000 to $29,999,999) = $21.25 million
    4.75 ($30,000,000 to $34,999,999) = $23.75 million
    5.25 ($35,000,000 to $39,999,999) = $ 26.25 million

    Incremental total: $135 million

    So using my projection of a $165 million salary, the math still adds up to exactly $300 million.
     
    #20 ghettocheeze, Jun 1, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2017
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