I wrote this before the win against Toronto last night, but still stand behind much of it's content. Check out my post over at the GreekGodofStats.com on the issues that plague the Rockets at the 20 game mark of the season. https://greekgodofstats.com/2019/12/05/failure-to-launch/ Here's a taste of it:
Nice read and I agree on your assessment of Westbrook. I would also add that MDA is not doing his job by allowing Westbrook to continue shooting jump shots, especially three point shots. He should either be attacking to score or pass it out. I would like to think, he was brought in to provide much needed athleticism, attacks, and increase the pace, not to settle for shots that everyone, but himself and MDA know he can't make. Honestly, I would rather see Cayleigh Griffin take three point or jump shots over Westbrook and I don't even know how Cayleigh shoots, that's how much faith I have in his shots. Even on a rare occasion, it goes in, I still feel he had no business taking that shot.
The Rockets are 6 games above .500, while last year at this time they were 2 games under .500 with a record of 9-11. That’s an improvement, right? Sort of. If we compare the totals between the two years around this point in time, this team is arguably the same – if not worse – relative to last year’s Rockets. I couldn’t disagree more. This team is much better at the 20 game mark than last year’s team, and just like last year’s team eventually found their stride and improved greatly, we’ll have to see if this year’s squad can do the same as well. Russ being a great help to the team or a burden is up to him. A Kobe mindset with a Tony Allen shooting touch is pretty disastrous. I trust Markelle Fultz’s jumper more than I do Westbrook’s.
Looking at raw win totals only tells part of the story. Look at the offense, the defense and how the Rockets win and lose games. This isn't a path independent observation that we can just look at the end points, we are trying to articulate a trajectory. That trajectory, based on the relativistic factors of the season leads me to believe this team is around the same mark as they were last year. Last year also had more mitigating factors to why their record was the way it was, and that roster was not as locked as this one is. Heck, even independent of those factors, by win shares alone the swap from CP3 to WB should put Houston on a 56 game win pace, of which they currently are not on.
Last year’s team was nowhere close to this one at the 20 game mark. If u want to compare last year’s team at the end of the season to this year’s team after 20 games then that’s a different conversation. At the 20 game mark, there is no comparison to the level of play between the 2 teams.
Not through 20 games it wasn't. The Rockets were 9-11 and their net rating was close to zero, I think it was actually negative. I think at the end of the day the Rockets regular season W/L will be slightly higher than last year, pretty much what you'd expect from swapping out WB for CP3 as you note in your article. I also don't see a huge difference in terms of 56 vs. 53 wins. Plain old statistical noise/variance will give you 2 or 3 wins, like an uncounted dunk that triggers a wild 2OT loss. When you're talking 10 wins, like the 2018 Rockets, that's a substantial difference in quality.
But you understand, the noise argument you're making could also be the difference between 9 and 13 games as well right? Net ratings are also relativistic to the league, but I provided data that is both relativistic to the NBA in terms of defense and offense, as well as data that is relativistic between both this and last years teams. By no means does that mean there aren't any corrective actions this team can take, that's not what the article says in the least bit. Rather, it says if they forgo those actions and move forward as is, they are on a pace to underwhelm us this season. The Rockets options are far more limited this season than last, but they still have options to improve. It just begs the question, will they?
There is an interesting observation that Harden started to average around 35-37 ppg last year starting with December. Just a hunch. This year he has been doing that half a month or 1 month earlier. I am sure that if Harden continued to shoot poorly from the 3 as in the first 3-5 games, the record would not have been good. I like those vectors, reminding me of math class back in the days!
I know you mention it in your analysis, regarding injuries, but in reality EG being out of the line up is huge. EG running with Russ will hopefully reduce the amount of shots that Russ takes. It looks like Russ is shooting more shots now than when EG was out of the line up. In reality, Russ has been playing with the bench guys which they have not been stellar this year. When Mac plays off the bench, he can't hit shots. Rivers has been up and down. Thank, mostly sucks. Throw in a non shooting center in there as well and it is understandable why Russ elects to take so many shots and why the team is not as good with him just on the floor. I've always felt EG has been our 2nd or 3rd best player on the floor. With Harden being double teamed, EG will be feasting on this defenses with wide open threes and open lanes to the basket. Even though we have a decent sized sample, stats are not going to tell us much right now since EG is not in there. Those first 9 games were also EGs annual bad games, which definitely those stats won't tell us anything. I would love for you to revisit this in the second half of the season.
I did read them...u just didn’t provide the most relevant stats which would be a comparison of the offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and overall point differential between the 2 teams at the 20 game mark
Excellent article. I am not quite as doom and gloom as you are. I freely acknowledge that the Rockets likely lose in the first round of the playoffs as they are currently constructed. However, in certain cases improvements at the margin actually make a large difference and that is the case with the Rockets. Adding a long wing that can defend and get out in transition would make a huge difference on this Rockets team, more so than the caliber of player shows on the stat sheet. This is similarly true with having a 4/5 that can shoot 3's and play 20 minutes a night. The Rockets do not need stars or even starters that have these traits. There are some players that fit these criteria that can be traded for and not be cost prohibitive. The question is whether or not Morey will be allowed to make such moves. Second, the Rockets are playing without a healthy Eric Gordon and that has played a part in the poor spacing and lower three point shooting position. Westbrook is playable, and even can somewhat thrive if there are the proper pieces around him. He has gone a long way towards solving out rebounding and pace issues. He is also a capable ball handler. He needs to be surrounded by shooters. There are a lot of "if's" but there is a 20%-25% chance that the Rockets stay healthy enough and add the pieces needed (role players) to make this work relatively well and become a legitimate challenger.
Harden shoot, Westbrook drive Idk I’m just not that worried at this point, Westbrook has had some really good games this season, but has had a bunch of poor shooting nights. Nonetheless though even on those poor nights he still brings so much to the court with his hustle/energy/athleticism and passing ability. Plus he can usually drive to the basket at will. Rockets have also performed well against championship quality teams even when they lose the games are close such as the game vs clippers. I think with Westbrook on the team will always have a chance to win a championship. With more adjustments, returning players from injuries, possible trade or buyout market and more focus on defense will still have just as much a shot at a ring as anybody else.
You can win a championship by being the best team in basketball - (2017 Warriors). You can also not win a championship despite being the best team in basketball (2018 Rockets). You can also just be in the right place at the right time: This years Rockets are the latter, rather than the former, and that's fine really.
The tone might come out doom and gloom, but you hit the nail on the head in terms of what I'm trying to say. As constructed, as directed and as lead this team probably won't win a title. Are there improvements to be made, sure! I just think a dramatic one might be hard to do. I acknowledge a lot of mitigating factors that this team has, injuries to guys like Gordon, and concede even Russ himself is playing injured as well. Health and other factors that are hard to account for like other team performances factor in as well, but it's really hard to account for those. All I'm saying is this, turbo-nuclear Harden can't run 82 games long, Russ shooting 23% from 3 is not sustainable long term, and the Rockets in game decisions will sink them. Ownership is ownership, but do not expect them to come in and make a dramatic impact. With Russ, we are in the same waters we were in with CP3 just a year ago, just now we have less flexibility and less talent to flip. If Russ improves, does that change things? OF COURSE IT DOES. My argument simply was, it isn't fine if he doesn't. If we follow this trajectory, this ship ain't gonna fly. As always, thanks for the read too!
Something I gloss over, and my apologies for it is the knee and the fingers of Russ. Russ in OKC last year, and Houston this year is running the same number of iso's, the same number of shots, and all other stat lines are pretty close beyond that... except efficiency. His percentage makes have gone down in terms of 2 and 3-pointers. The fingers and the knee have A LOT to do with that. If he can return to even just his form from last season, it will be a great improvement. For sure, but I can't completely model that. What I can model is where they are currently and how they got there. Maybe a sixth vector needs to be there, like an injury one, haha. Food for thought next time.
