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[GRAPHS!!] Rockets 3 Point Shooting Woes

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by napalm06, Nov 24, 2019.

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Should an NBA team that shoots record 3s acquire 3-point shooters?

  1. Yes

    28 vote(s)
    93.3%
  2. Abstain, courteously

    2 vote(s)
    6.7%
  1. napalm06

    napalm06 Missed Three Pointer Enthusiast
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    Today versus the Mavericks, Bill and Bull pointed out that:

    The Rockets generate the most open 3 point shots in the league.
    (a stat that I'll have to take their word for)

    But it has been frustrating watching the Rockets take so many bricks from 3 point range for a few seasons now. (This thread has nothing to do with the defense, btw.)

    Is our consistently inconsistent 3 point shooting a system problem? Or do we not pick up the right personnel?

    Exhibit A: All NBA teams 3 Point Attempts (X) vs 3P% (Y)
    The annotation lines are NBA averages.
    Notice that the Rockets are in the quadrant you don't want to be in - high volume, low efficiency.

    NBA Teams 3PA vs 3P%.JPG

    This obviously doesn't tell the whole story about winning, because the Wizards, Pelicans, Hornets, and Blazers are hardly elite company, though they're in the ideal quadrant.

    But when you base your whole offense around it...

    Exhibit B: A Look At Each Rocket
    (Annotation lines are NBA averages.)
    Harden is OK - he takes a crap ton of 3s and makes them at essentially an average clip. (The problem is it's feast or famine.)

    Clemons, Tucker and House are keeping the Rockets' shooting afloat. We should feed these guys shots.

    Sefolosha, Rivers and McLemore are who they are. Below-average shooters who are bargain-bin signings but aren't going to move us in the right direction.

    Gordon and Westbrook have been absolute boat anchors. If their current play continues, either they or the system have to go. Your top 3 players and scheme have to co-exist. (Fortunately I believe that Gordon having time to get his head and knee right will help him.)

    Rockets 3 Point Shooting.JPG


    Exhibit C: How Are The Rockets Shooting Versus Their Career Averages?

    (Y axis is 2019 3 point % minus career 3 point % - e.g. the difference from career average)
    (Color is career 3P% - redder the better)
    (Size is 2019 attempts.)

    Rockets 3P vs Career.JPG

    Based on this, Morey has found some diamonds in the rough (House and Clemons) that can be viable rotation players if we stick with a 3-point heavy system.

    At a strategy level, we need to shift some of the attempts (bubble size) UP in this chart.

    Harden can do his thing. His 3 point shooting is a massive ball of average, but his overall numbers justify taking them.

    Morey did his best to fill in the roster with bargain bin players who can help the defense (Rivers, Sefolosha), but they're a detriment to the offense, so they're a net nothing at best. There shouldn't be more than one of Rivers/Sefolosha/McLemore on the court at once, and preferably not with Westbrook.

    Gordon needs to be shooting in the gym every day when his rehab allows.

    Westbrook needs to never take 3s, under pretty much any circumstances.

    Morey needs to be watching this closely week to week. Westbrook can't make threes, but his drives and Harden's existence create so much gravity that we should be able to find role players that shoot 40%.
     
  2. napalm06

    napalm06 Missed Three Pointer Enthusiast
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    [bump, maybe this is a better bored-at-work thread than a Sunday night thread]
     
  3. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    if your 3 point shooters have been slumping (e.g., Gordon), perhaps because of injury, how does that affect your thinking? serious question
     
  4. juanm34

    juanm34 Member

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    Hard to find shooters when The Tilmans cheap.
    Ryno once shot the 3 ball well but he sucks on the defensive end......the team currently sucks on the defensive end and 3 pt shooting...
    What do we do? Waive him without seeing what he can do....
    i-Hart and Clark can rain it in the G-league....what do we do....let them rot on the bench..
    Clemons can hit the 3...the guy got 1 garbage time minute during yesterdays game.
    None of these guys are the answer but sometimes you need a scrub to spark the team. All we do is run the same burnt out players brick after brick.
     
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  5. gotsis

    gotsis Member

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    Great thread.

    Everyone was hoping Westbrook could get closer to his MVP season 3pt efficiency due to the open looks he would get in this offense, but this is far from happening. Hope he at least reaches 30% at some moment.

    Mclemore being better than Rivers caught my attention, watching the games he seems to miss so many wide open ones and Rivers had a hot start but is now kind of hesitant on the shots.

    One thing I would wish they'd do:

    -Play Clark and Clemons more - Clark should get Seloshas minutes and we should find some time for Clemons, even though he is really small he has such a smooth 3pt shot. In the game against the Timberwolves he carried the bench in scoring.
     
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  6. sealclubber1016

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    Of the 7 non centers that would play when healthy, 6 of them have career track records of being at least average shooters. Even Westbrook isn't as bad as he's been. I don't think the shooting is as bad as it seems, water will find it's level in that regard.

    Hvaing said that, I've made my feelings on Westbrook known in a multitude of threads, and McLemore just doesn't seem like he's any good even if he does start making some 3's. We're stuck with Westbrook and his poor choices, but Morey really needs to try and find some way to replace McLemore with a wing.
     
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  7. bro2044

    bro2044 Member

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    Honestly, this just makes me ridiculously sad. To watch NBA professionals continuously clank wide-open threes/shots is ridiculous, especially when we see OTHER teams hitting their wide-open ones and just struggling if covered. Sefolosha and McLemore no longer deserve playing time, WB needs to avoid jump shots almost completely, Gordon needs to get out of his slump when he gets back, and Harden doesnt need to take more than 10 3pt attempts per game. Especially now with the double-team at the line, Harden needs to attack faster and dribbles less anyways.

    Our lack of adjustment to opposing team strategies, or our poor shooting, is the most disappointing thing. I am not anti-MDA, but a lot of that falls onto coaching and leadership. I think MDA needs to adjust, Harden needs to be flexible, and our role players need to step up or step to the bench. House I'm happy with, and hopefully he can continue to play well, but our starting unit does NOT need to allow other teams to jump on us. The majority of our offense comes from them, but early defensive woes are inexcusable.
     
    #7 bro2044, Nov 25, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2019
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  8. TimDuncanDonaut

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    End of Oct, Russ dislocated his fingers. Not sure it was the shooting hand or not. Maybe the injury only lasted those games. Even if they tape his hand, can most likely still affect his shooting %. Sometimes teams don't publish small/medium injuries too openly, so it wouldn't be entirely obvious on the scouting report.

    If shooting woes (which we're in), in transition go for the layup or dunk if it is there (as opposed to the 3).

    Russ should still run the transition, because the defense collapses on him. On the kick out, if the open guy at 3pt line is cold, or opponent daring them to shoot, run a few more misdirection, and find the hot guy (if it's PJ) and let him shoot. Don't just go to the first open guy.
     
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  9. napalm06

    napalm06 Missed Three Pointer Enthusiast
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    I want to believe that Gordon was slumping because of his knee. There's no way he can keep playing as badly as he was this year... right?
     
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  10. napalm06

    napalm06 Missed Three Pointer Enthusiast
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    I was surprised to see that although Russ is shooting terribly, it's still way below his career average.

    It's weird to shoot with any taped or jammed fingers, so hopefully that's what it is. I agree that we should be feeding whoever is hot.
     
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  11. ApuN

    ApuN Member

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    "Westbrook needs to never take 3s, under pretty much any circumstances."

    This is by far the most strongest point -- but the least likeliest to happen.

    Brodies' nonsense will continue to cost Rockets games and its a damn shame
     
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  12. napalm06

    napalm06 Missed Three Pointer Enthusiast
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    Don't get me wrong, I think the Rockets' defense has been costing games more than the offense during our two losing streaks. But every little thing matters.
     
  13. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    I think you need to look at the other side of the equation, too. Although the Rockets' 3pt shooting has always been average at best, the Rockets' 3 pt defense has been among the best. This season, the opponent is jacking up more 3's than ever and they're hitting them at the league average.
     
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  14. aliadiere25

    aliadiere25 Member

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    The worst thing is most of our 3pt shot takers have it easy. All they have to do is hit a wide open spot up 3pt shot. There is no excuse of why certain players like Rivers, Gordon and McLemore should be hitting below 35% from the 3pt.

    Westbrook has never been know for his 3pt shot, so I'll cut him some stack.... even though he is shooting so horribly from the 3pt, even for him. He creates space well for others with his driving to the basket. The other guys who spot up have to start hitting their shots more consistently. It's literally what's killing us when we lose games.

    I think MDA needs to start giving other guys more of a chance, because players like McLemore and Rivers are not playing well this season.
     
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  15. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Which other players on roster would be better 3 point shooters than EGo, Rivers or McLemore other than Clemons?

    Clemons problem is position versatility, he really cannot be paired up with any guard but Harden.

    He and Rivers do not have great chemistry.
     
  16. Remlap

    Remlap Member

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    Based on the graph and data, the answer appears to be. . ..

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Zboy

    Zboy Contributing Member

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    Just imagine how many more points we could have scored if we had attempted twice as many 3s during the same time frame.
     
  18. Gray_Jay

    Gray_Jay Member

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    Honestly, he needs to not take any shots outside of 10 feet, besides free throws. Get to the rim, get fouled---Harden can show him how that works---or kick out to an open shooter. All his outside shooting is doing is padding Clint's rebound numbers.
     
  19. SemisolidSnake

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    So, in other words, the way I used to play NBA Jam. Inbound ball, immediately shoot, repeat until final buzzer.
     
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