I'm getting way, way ahead of myself. But this is something different to think about (other than bs Tmac trade rumors). First, let me say that we have a hell of a battle ahead of us to just make the playoffs. (I think we squeak in) But if we do, it doesn't matter much whether we climb up the seeding. (more on that in a minute). Rather, it's most important for us to be playing our best basketball and being healthy. So Adelman should focus on getting our right players in the rotation, getting us to play the right way, even if it costs us a 6 or 7 seed. (yes, I know that's a dangerous game to play considering it's not clear we'll make the playoffs.) As to the main point, our seeding: - it will be very difficult for us to crack the 4th or 5th seed, considering our poor record so far and cluster of teams ahead of us. Thus, we have no shot at home court advantage in round 1. - As luck would have it, there may be no benefit to climbing up to the 6th or 7th seed. In each of the last three years, Dallas (06-07), SA (05-06) and Phx (04-05)have each been seeded No. 1. They're the best 3 teams in the West and have the top 3 records (with a number of teams close). It stands to reason that one of these teams will command the top spot again, and it's as likely to be one as the other two. - PHX is our nighmare matchup. I'd prefer Dallas, then SA. - Let's aim for the 8th spot. The key difference is round 2. If we get there (HUGE if), we face the winner of 4 v. 5 seed. The 4 seed will likely be occupied by the NW Div winner (Denver/Portland/Utah). It's a tossup among Denver, Portland, NO, LA Lakers, Utah, GSW and us for the rest of the seeds. As long as Golden State isn't the winner of the 4/5 seed matchup, that looks very winnable, if we're healthy and playing our best ball. (I'm now way, way ahead of myself ... assuming that we get into the playoffs, that we somehow beat Dallas or SA by playing our best ball at year end). The reality is it's going to be tough to make the playoffs, and if we do, we're likely a first round exit. But, if things break just right, and we're playing as a cohesive unit under Adelman's style, maybe, just maybe, we could make this interesting. In the near term, what I'm trying to say is that we have to concentrate on just getting into the playoffs and not worry about seeding. In particular, we need to continue to develop Brooks if he is our best long term solution. Scola also. We need him to get more minutes to accelerate the adjustment to the NBA officiating, and to further integrate him into the offense. They represent our upside. In past years, I think Van Gundy was so focused on regular season wins that he did not consider whether it would be better take steps to prepare for our best play at the end of the year ... such as play the younger guys (perhaps spanoulis) or risk disrupting a good chemistry by trading howard for james. (please do not derail this into a Vspan thread).
Reality check: 4-5 seed would probably require at least 50 wins or more (see Hollinger's playoff odds on ESPN). We'd have to go at least 32-15 in the rest of our games. That's 68%. That's far from easy (only 4 teams in the league so far have a 68% or higher winning percentage).
i dont think its too far of a reach...if the 04-05 rockets can do it...so can we..i still believe... 94-95 Rockets were the 6th seed...wouldnt that be sweet for us to win it all as the 6th seed again
Personlly, I don't think it will be a "hell of a battle" to get to the playoffs because we're going to be roaring in. And the league will be pissing their collective pants watching us get there. 3 weeks ago I had no hope. Today? All the way, baby, all the way! (ok, that last line was a bit homer)
not a reach at all, new coach, best player has missed time, can't get rotation straight, new system is a 180 from old system look at the rest of this month ten games Rockets should go about 8-2 and as far as Febuary goes we can run that month 13 games only at New Orleans we will be a dog and maybe close to a pick at cleveland EDIT so say we go 12-1 add that to the 8-2 and it's 20-3 + these last three wins 23-3 run not out of the question (of course this is best case senario) 38-20 woth 24 left a 2-1 clip =54 wins!
What it boils down to is whether or not you believe Brooks and Scola have talent. I'd say hell yeah, and I'd also argue that they bring something to the table that last year's lineup was lacking. It's going to be very, very tough for the Rockets to get home court in any playoff series. If you give Brooks and Scola minutes now that's a head start on next season. And if you want to trade them my firm belief is that they're only going to get better with more minutes, raising their potential trade value. I really think they should be getting around 20 minutes a game.
Lookin at tha standins who do yall expect to fall off thats currently in tha playoffs. GS are one BDiddy injury from fallin off, and BDiddy is very injury prone. Same thing with Hornets and Chris Paul. Tha Lakers always fall of in tha second half also. They've gotten off to fast starts tha last three years(prior to this season) and fell off substancially in tha second half, limpin into tha post-season.When kobe starts his annual streak of 40+ games, then we'll know whats up
Especially looking at our remaining schedule and the fact that we have played the most road games in the league.
I believe we will win at least 50 games, probably around 52. There are more 2nd tier teams in the west this year (Denver, NO, Lakers, GS, Portland, Utah, Houston). So it is hard to say what seed that record will land us. I agree that we should develop Scola and Brooks. These two guys' fit Adelman's system well. They just need experience. If Scola's minutes is close to 30 mpg and Brooks around 20 mpg, that would be ideal. The 9-man rotation toward the end of regular season: Yao Scola/Hayes Battier/Bonzi TMac/Head Rafer/Brooks
I agree, I think that will be the rotation. By the way the first quote in your sig is the funniest thing I read today. Wow. I see Denver, GS, Portland, LAL, and NO all slipping in the 2nd half of the season. I can see the Rockets and the hated Jazz having a surge. 50 wins will be quite a challenge, but barring any further serious injuries, it's still doable.
Actually, we're only 4 games back of the 5th seen I believe with plenty of games left. Soft schedule, TMAC back, we should get back in the picture soon. And if that happens, it'll be the same scenario, except easier. Instead of facing 1st then 4th seeds, we'd be facing 4th, then 1st seeds....makin it at least easier to get to 2nd round
I think Scola and Brooks represent our upside on the offensive end, but you have to admit they are going to weaken our defense quite a bit if they get major minutes. Say what you want about Rafer and Chuck, but both are above average defenders. Rafer has really quick hands and Brooks has shown that but also been overmatched at times on D. Chuck's defense speaks for itself against anyone not named Kevin Garnett. I think an increase in Scola's minutes is going to be at the backup center spot. Yao playing over 40 min night after night has got to be somewhat of a concern. It would be nice to get Brooks more minutes, but honestly that is going to be hard with the way Skip has improved and Tmac coming back to take some guard minutes as well. Plus Luther has proved he should be in the rotation.
if they continue to gell the way they have been I can see it as a possibilty, t-mac is still on the horizion, rest of the way they could live up to expectations finally, home heavy schedule ahead of us don't see why its outside the realm of possibilty
According to Hollinger's playoff predictor, there will likely be a very close race between five teams for those last three spots - Utah, Houston, Golden State, Portland and Denver. The Northwest Division title is crucial to each of the three teams in that race. I don't think Utah will win it -- it's the Blazers' to take if they don't flame out before season's end and Brandon Roy can stay healthy. As far as the Rockets are concerned, I'd hope they really go on a strong streak and finish with at least 50 wins, because I'd rather not be caught up in that race at the end of the season. You certainly don't want to be in a situation where you're hoping for Golden State to lose a game.
We won't be able to get in the playoffs without strong contributions with Scola and also from Brooks. Scola is the only low post scorer on the team apart from Yao.He needs to get better on defense,rebounding,and free throws but he needs opportunities to score on the low block and also to improve on his outside shooting. Brooks has to get better as a backup PG,but he is a good scorer who can improve with more playing time as well. He does have his shortcomings because of his lack of size and inexperience,but we won't get in the playoffs without good performances from him either. The Rockets will have to fight tooth and nail to make it into the playoffs IMO. It's very encouraging to see the team fight without McGrady,but we need a healthy and motivated T-Mac to get into the playoffs too.
I Agree with many posters here in that Scola minutes don´t have to come from Hayes only but also from Yao who needs to reduce his playing time by 3-5 mins per game, that only would put scola on the average of 25 mins per game.
