Well it's back. After taking a vacation and dropping out of Rockets discussion for a while, I'm back with another GARM FAQ article. For those new to the series, I take a Rocket discussion topic and give my own spin and summary on all the different facets of the subject. You can find my previous ones here: GARM FAQs: Kirk Snyder Trade Edition GARM FAQs: Vassilis Spanoulis Signing Edition GARM FAQs: John Lucas III and Steve Novak Signing Edition So time for me to weigh in on the Bonzi Wells signing. That one thread about the deal falling apart gave me pause, so I decided to wait until it became official before posting this. So here goes: So I heard we signed Bonzi Wells. I don't follow basketball per se, I'm just a guest alter ego here to lob softball questions at you while the regular guy is out sick. Really? What happened? Let's just say that the annual Popeye Festival Spinach Eating Contest had a bit of a setback. Wow. I'm sorry to hear that. I hope he's okay. Oh I wouldn't worry. He's only a figment of your imagination. You on the the other hand could use some help... Hey. I thought you were just here to toss softballs. This alter ego device is thin enough as it is, without the need to dissect it. Mea Culpa. So Bonzi Wells. Who Dat? Bonzi is a free agent SG from Sacramento. He previously played for the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trailblazers. Word is that we signed him with the remaining $2.1 million of our MLE for two years, with the second year being a player option. So it would break down to: Year 1: $2.1 million Year 2: $2.268 million (Player Option) Total worth: $4.368 This $2.1 million figure gives backup to my previous assertion that we did in fact give both Lucas and Novak two year deals with third year team options. The $2.1 million leftover MLE directly supports the scenario that I described in this thread: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=116086 As for Bonzi, he's pretty much guaranteed to opt out of his contract next summer. He was looking for a big payday this year (supposedly in the $50 million range), but got squeezed out of the free agent market when all the teams with cap room or the inclination to use a full MLE went in a different direction, and Sacramento decided to sign John Salmons instead. Couple this with Sacto not wanting to take back salaries in a sign and trade, and that meant that Wells had to take a short term deal and try again for a long-term contract next year. So Bonzi is basically a one year rental then. What about next year? Well if the Rockets want to re-sign him next year, they'll have a pretty decent shot. Next year's free agent crop purports to be much better than this year's, and will once again have a limited amount of teams with any real cap space. If the Rockets want to re-sign Bonzi, an MLE offer could probably get it done. Okay, now that the business aspects have been explained what about the basketball side. What does Bonzi bring to the table? Bonzi's strengths are: 1. A strong ability to post up and score on the block. 2. Excellent rebounding from the guard position. 3. He doesn't have a reputation of being a shutdown defender, but he does have the size, strength and athleticism to be a good defender. And he's always had a knack for getting steals, even back to college when he had an entire year of averaging over 3.5 spg. His weaknesses are: 1. He's not a good perimeter shooter. In fact according to this hotzone chart: http://www.nba.com/hotzones/popup.html Over the past three years, Bonzi is cold or average from everywhere outside the paint. Some have said that he's got a good mid-range game, but this data shows that it's mediocre at best. 2. He hasn't exactly been a model of consistency during his career. He's got an enormous set of basketball tools, but he's never really put it together except for a suspicious "contract run" playoff series in 2006. Of course this is mitigated by the fact that he's in another contract year now, so he'll want to put his best foot forward. 3. He's got an attitude problem, and had numerous run-ins with coaches, officials, reporters and even fans. No way to sugarcoat it. Come on. You can sugarcoat anything. How bad could he be? Well here's a rundown from his wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonzi_Wells He also made GQ's "Ten Most Hated Athletes" List: http://men.style.com/gq/features/full?id=content_4103&pageNum=3 Well Now. Sounds like a real gem of a signing. To be fair, he's a pure bargain at $2 million. And if he's performing on the court, we'll forgive any offcourt incident this side of attempted murder (And even then you'll still have a segment of people looking for all kinds of excuses. See Eddie Griffin for example). And he did seem to be on his best behavior with the Kings last season, but I think it's safe to say that it's a good thing for the Rockets (and Bonzi) that it's only a one year commitment right now. Okay. Back to basketball then. Let's talk lineups. Bonzi a starter, or supersub? Bonzi's skillset on offense, and rebounding ability provides some interesting matchups and lineups (A Tracy/Bonzi swing combination is going to be a tough matchup for anybody). But if he's going to be in the starting lineup, it better be with: Rafer Bonzi Tracy Battier Yao Bonzi, Rafer, and Howard together with Yao would be an absolute nightmare. The opposition would clog up the paint and dare anybody to make an outside shot, which that group hasn't shown that it can do. So it's a good thing that we have Battier, a proven three point shooter, and a guy that isn't afraid to do the dirty work. The tandem of Battier and Bonzi can split the traditional offensive duties of the SG and PF. Battier can sets screens (like a normal 4), and spot up for threes (like a typical 2), while Bonzi can curl off screens in order to power-drive his way into the paint (like a SG), and be the secondary post-up player (like a PF). On defense Bonzi would mitigate the rebounding downgrade from playing Battier at PF, and would get some more quickness on the court for defensive rotations. Though Battier's ability to guard the PF position is still up in the air, but it's probably not worse than Juwan. But I think I prefer the idea of Bonzi coming off the bench better. He can come in when Yao takes his first break, and start operating in the low post right away. It would give Bonzi the straight forward role of point-maker off the bench early in the game. Simplifying his role so he doesn't have to worry about trying to fit in and get Yao going, which should be the first order of business when the game starts. What about the rest of the team. Are we done making moves? What's next? Looking over the roster, we really could use a big 4/5 as insurance for Deke, and to be able to go big versus certain teams. But I would not be thinking about making a deal right now, for two reasons: 1. We've already been burned bad by a training camp trade (see the rafer/james debacle). And it makes absolutely no sense to make a deal now, when it's incredibly likely that a few teams will lose hope in their season and become more receptive to making a deal later. The front office was a bunch of fools last year for jumping the gun on the Alston/James trade. That Raptors team wasn't going anywhere. A big losing streak, and another outburst from Rafer, and they would've jumped all over a deal to dump him straight up for an expiring contract (i.e. Moochie). 2. As much as Bonzi will help this team, I don't think we can win a title unless one of the question marks in the backcourt (Rafer, Head, Vspan, Snyder etc.) steps up their game. And I would loathe to put any one of them in a trade until we see them in action, and find out what they can give us. Speaking of title runs. How close is this team? Depends. There are some question marks to be sure. First off, we've got the PF situation. Battier is supposed to be our answer to matching up with top contenders like the Mavs and Suns. And Bonzi's rebounding ability will cover up some of what Battier is giving up on the glass. But do we have the versatility to matchup with the Spurs as well? We can over-commit and toss a defensive blanket on top of Duncan, but will that open up things Parker and Manu to run wild? It's a definite concern. And what about our backcourt? Like I said, we need someone to step up and give us some consistency from the guard position. Whether it's shooting the ball, penetrating the lane, or distributing the rock, we could really use some playmakers back there. Of course neither of those is the biggest question heading into the season. What's the biggest question? You'll never guess. Um, I'm in your head, so I already know. Okay, not you then, but the board in general. In fact let's test it out. Everybody, before you scroll any further, think of the most important question heading into the new season. I mean aside from the obvious injuries concerns. The fact that we need Yao and Tracy healthy heading into the playoffs is so basic and uncontrollable, that it isn't really worth discussing in this context. So aside from injuries what is the main determining factor for whether this team can compete for a title or not? The absolute biggest question, whose answer will set the team's fate: Take as long as you want. That's probably enough space. Okay, the question is: "Can the new perimeter players commit to feeding Yao on the re-post." If your answer has the word re-post in it, then congratulations. I'm surprised that we're on the same wavelength. Yeah, yeah. Toss out an esoteric, narrow-minded, and utterly specific reasoning and wow us with your deep, outside the box thinking. Puh-leeze. What an absolutely transparent egomaniacal stroke job. You better pony up some fierce logic and insightful explanations, or end up looking more preened up than a peacock pillow. What the hell does that even mean? Just get going fool. Okay, my reasoning goes like this. Remember the second half of last season, when Yao started punishing teams on a night in and night out basis. And there was all the talk about how he's changed and turned the corner and all this other mumble jumble about lights clicking and so forth. But if you look deeper to see what was the real tangible difference, it was the fact that Yao committed to re-posting, and the perimeter guys committed to the re-entry pass. That's the big secret right there. Sure, Yao improved every facet of his game during his layoff; rebounding, hands, free throws, stamina, and turnovers. But if we're talking nuts and bolts, meat and potatoes dominance, we're talking about low post scoring. And on that front it's all about the re-post. I remember the way Yao used to be. He'd start off the game going off on single coverage. Let's face it, he's been un-guardable one-on-one since his sophomore season. But the defense would adjust by tossing these double-teams at him with varying degrees of tenacity. Didn't really matter how hard or soft you brought it, because Yao wasn't usually in the business of challenging the double-coverage. So more likely than not, Yao would kick it back out, and the ball would get swung around to generally little effect. Nobody got more frustrated than me when Yao tossed the ball out versus soft double-teams. Where it all changed was when Yao started going to the re-post as a weapon. He'd toss it out and immediately go for deeper position, and usually get a high percentage look if he got the ball back. Of course the problem was that the perimeter guy didn't always look to drop in a re-entry pass. That all changed in the second half of last year. We fielded such horrific offensive teams, that the perimeter guys really had no choice but to look for Yao over and over and over again, until he got his look. Yao committed to re-posting after kicking out on doubles and/or bad positioning, and the rest of the team committed to working the ball into him at pretty much all costs. Well we all know what happened next. Yao went on a tear, started ripping up the league, and inducing whispers all over the place about "making the leap" or "turning corners" or whatever. The "what-if" game started up around here, and after a summer of "win now", and upgraded depth and talent, the "Finals Talk" is rearing it head little by little. Well I'm here to say that the new infusion of players creates both excitement as well as anxiousness. The fresh talent and new hope is absolutely exhilarating, because we weren't going anywhere with last year's group. But at the same time you have to wonder whether these new guys will get it. Get that they not only need to feed Yao the ball, but also to re-feed Yao the ball. Getting Yao going has to be job one, two and three around here, and it's not enough to take his kick out and fire up a three. Because the extra effort and patience to send it back into the big fella will pay off so much more in the long run. The fact is, that if Yao continues his All-NBA caliber dominance down low (I don't need to tell you that he got robbed with that 3rd team All-NBA), everything else will just fall into place. Everyone else's job gets easier, as the defense has to bend their focus to avoid getting killed in the post. Looks become more open, lanes become wider to drive-through, and defenses get more vulnerable to cuts and offensive boards. So it's important that all the new guys (and some of the old guys) get with the program, and recognize the importance of the re-entry pass. Because while Yao's got all the makings to be great and dominant, he does needs some help getting there. So how was that? Was that reasoning good enough? I'll let everyone else decide. Fair enough.
Really nice post...I think Bonzi will definitely will want to prove himself and will do what JVG tells him to do. Otherwise, he will be benched and nobody will want him next year. As far as the injuries, I think that if we were to lose one of our stars, that the team will be able to at least win half of those games were the star player is missing, which is much better than last year. Basically, injury or no injuries, we will make the playoffs and have a deep run.
Really good point about the re-posting and re-feeding to Yao. Let's hope JVG will be putting strong emphasis on this during training camp and throughout the season. We know Battier will understand this, and Rafer should too. Wells is a question mark for re-feeding Yao, and this adds to why it makes more sense to make him a 6th man.
I'm with jdrock: I like the idea of Bonzi as 6th man. But it's kinda not that important who starts; it's who finishes. So, no matter what happens with the starting players, Bonzi will be on the court with Yao, a lot. m_cable, When I tell people about the difference in Yao, I'll mention the re-posting, too. I like to emphasize how Yao not only knows how to do it (eg., sealing, repositioning, etc), but he now demands the ball much, much more. I find it not too worrisome. Dream was a master at re-posting, but Maxwell/Horry/Smith broke the NBA record on 3pt attempts. Re-posting and shooting 3s can co-exist. Now, I certainly do not want to see us shooting as many 3s as Max/Horry/Smith, but I wouldn't be surprised if our perimeter shooting attempts (not necessarily 3s) increases with Yao's dominance, given that defenses will have to try to adjust to his dominance. I also hope TMac will penetrate if his man cheats towards Yao, rather than shoot a 3. But, I want Battier to shoot the 3, in the same situation. In short, Yao will demand the re-entry and get plenty of them. What I'm more interested in tracking is how the TMac/Yao high PnR performs this year. Dallas had a lot of trouble with that in 2005, and I we didn't get to see it much last year. Yao's ability to beat doubles with quick decisions on making his move/taking the shot before the double arrives or re-posting to shake the double is no more or less important than using the TMac/Yao PnR, imo. I'd like to see us mix it up each game.
Great post, as usual. How about analysis from a different perspective. How are other teams going to defend this team? If you double Yao there's TMac. If you double TMac there's Yao. And Battier is a pretty decent shooter and Wells can go off for 20+ points at any time. And since this is a Van Gundy team you know the defense will be excellent. And the off season acquisitions appear to have made this team taller, more athletic, faster and stronger. And, if these new Roxs can also shoot, well I pity the other teams.
Good post. Yeah, our guys need to know by heart this is a inside-out team, breathe with that, not just say it and half-azz about it on the court. Re-post is boring and requires patience. It's not the easiest thing to do when one gets the ball back. But we gotta execute it when Yao is openning up down low. Also I would like to see mix up a little, a little motion here and there, weak side screens and swing. With Bozi's sigining, we just got much deeper and more possibilties to run the play. It's really up to JVG to bring everybody on the same page now.
The two big question marks are Synder and Bonzi. Remember D.A. last year, he would use Yao as decoy to set up play for himself. I dont want to see DA all over again. Really it's up to JVG to convince people, not just giving orders and handing out punishments. He needs to be more tactiful.
heyp Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the three point shot. In fact it's one of the main weapons that go hand and hand with a dominant low post scorer. I'm just wary about trigger happy guys firing up a three from a strong side kick out. That is one area where the defender can recover from without too much trouble, so in general you'd only want a real sharpshooter to take that shot. Otherwise the high percentage play is to drop it back into the post. And I just want the perimeter guys to keep that in mind. As for the high P/R, we didn't see it that much last year because Mcgrady wasn't able to turn the corner on the help defender, and would often get trapped. It was pretty discouraging to watch actually. Here's hoping T-mac's back stays as pain-free as he says it is now. And one thing I'm looking forward to what V-span can do on the P/R with Yao. That's supposed to be his game, and it'll be interesting to see him run it with one of the best screeners in the world.
Are you kidding me? We totally match great against the Spurs. Remember Bonzi Wells absolutely killed Manu in last year playoffs. Now Manu comes back from another deep run with Argentina, you have to wonder how fresh he will be. We can alternate Yao/Battier on Duncan and not worry about their other big: neither Elson nor Butler appear to be too much of a concern. In fact I think the Spurs will mostly play Horry and Finley as PF which are combined 428 years of age, with Tim being the C. But most importantly, do you think that 36 year-old Bruce Bowen could keep up with a healthy T-Mac? Our biggest problem is chemistry and lack of playing time together. It will show a lot more on defense against the Suns and the Mavs than the Spurs. These two teams have played together and have great sets and ball movement; will we be able to read their offence and nail the defensive rotations with so many new players on the court? If we start stumbling, both the Suns and the Mavs can run you out of the building. On offence I do not think the chemistry will matter that much. If JVG is smart, our offense should consist of a steady diet of Yao and Bonzi post-ups with isos and P&R for T-Mac. You don't need special chemistry for that, just discipline.
Bonzi the team player! Ha! He will light up for his stock! Rockets will be so hard tyo contain because of the 1,2 & 3 punch on the floor. Thanks to Bonzi, for his wonderful season.
First off Duncan is going to be a tough matchup for us. Put Battier on him, and we need to bend our entire defense to help. Put Yao on him and you've got to be concerned with Duncan putting Yao in foul trouble. Also don't be so sure about being able to put a smaller guy on Elson/Butler. That's a surefire way to give up offensive boards and garbage buckets. Especially Butler since he's got a pretty good touch around the basket. Also if you can find a guy on the roster that has a prayer of guarding Tony Parker then let me know, because he'll be a killer matchup as well. And regardless of how long in the tooth the team is, they still possess the best team defense in the league. As for the Suns the LA teams showed how to beat them. Run P/R and roll your big guys into the pivot. Then kill them on the switch. They barely escaped two playoff series against the LA teams mostly because they couldn't handle the opposing big guys in the pick and roll. Seriously, I better not see JVG trying to put Yao in a stationary post-up against the suns. That just allows them to set up their front defense. I mean if even Kwame Brown and Lamar Odom can tear them up down low, imagine what Yao would do. Just score on them efficiently to hold down their transition game and that's more than half the battle already. In terms of the Mavs, I really think our additions at the swing positions (Battier, Bonzi, and Snyder) helps us a lot against them. Not only that, but the Mavs aren't a blow-em-out-track-team anymore. They're an offensively efficient group that looks to exploit matchups with isos and clear-outs. So with a (presumeably) stronger group of one-on-one defenders, they become a lot less scary.
So, if the Mavs go small on the Rockets like they did 2 years ago in the playoffs and put out a lineup of Dirk Stack Josh Howard Devin Harris Jason Terry Who does Yao guard?
Just run zone like the Heat. Then have Yao beat up Dirk on the other end. Diop/Dampier will be at the scorer's table before you know it.
Thank You. After watching Pat Riley (JVG's mentor) run a zone defense (i don't remember if it was 3-2 or 2-3, i just remember yelling to my friends, my God, Miami is playing some zone!) many times against Dallas, I hope like crazy that JVG will start showing some of that. The Mavs, Spurs, and Heat all incorporate zone defenses into their systems. It's JVG's time to catch up to the competition.
