I hadn't seen this posted yet. With 2:17 left in the 3rd, Rockets hit a low of 0.7% chance of continuing the season. http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_live.php This goes down as an all time great and one of the most improbable playoff victories since this site has tracked. http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/topGame.php?sort=cb&season=ALL&team=ALL&po=1&frdt=2011-12-25&todt=2015-05-14 What it doesn't include, is doing it with your best player on the pine. The same person who also was rated as the NBA's 2nd highest win probability value added. http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnPlayer.php?season=2014&pos=ALL&team=ALL&po=2&frdt=2014-10-28&todt=2015-05-14&rate=tot was also the 13-14 most clutch player in NBA. Crazy as hell! The vary reason we love sports!
Sorry, but that 2nd link is a bunch of crock, an excitement level and comeback on a scale of what? Based on what? You're telling me that 1st round win of the Blazers vs. us last year was more exciting than this? They didn't even have a comeback as far as I can remember and the boxscore backs this up..
1) I think you have blocked out the pain.. We were up 10 at the FT line with under 4 minutes. (98.7 % probability) 2) The numbers and statistical analysis pass the eye test. Comeback rating seems easy enough to measure and excitement of the game is simply looking for how much probability %'s swing through out the course of the game. Of course, actual excitement depends on your POV, game flow, etc. As defined on by the site: Excitement: This option will sort games by top value of the excitement index. The excitement index measures how far the win probability graph "travels" over the course of the game. Comeback: This option will sort games by the comeback factor, which is the winning team's odds at their lowest point in the game. My win probability estimates only go down to the 4th decimal place, so any winning teams with a win probability of < 0.0001 show up with a comeback factor of "9999+" Embrace statistical analysis Phil Jackson.
