From the Parsons move to predict the Rockets transaction timeline of the next few months

- Decline Parsons
- Trade Asik/Lin/Dmo/#25 to Celtics for Trade Exception and second rounders
- July 1-4 Talk to Dirk, Lebron, Pau, Melo, and Lowry
- July 7 come to agreement with Pau and Lowry splitting the approx. 16 mil in cap space.
- July 8 Sign Parsons to a 5 year deal worth 45 million
- July 9 Sign Shawn Marion or Paul Pierce with a portion of the MLE
- July 15 Sign Kostas Panipanokau(sp?) with the rest of the MLE
- Sign vet center to back up Dwight


- June 15, 2015 win an NBA Championship

 

I don't expect to see a salary dump on draft night. I can see trading Lin/Asik for a guy we're going to keep on draft night. But, I don't think you just dump those 2 on the assumption that you can do something useful with the cap-space once free agency begins. If they take this strategy at all, I think they get a verbal commitment from the player during the moratorium first, and then execute on trades to drop those players. And, you can't get that commitment on draft night.

 

I agree with the bolted statement but Lin will not be involved in that deal. The Celtics don't need 3 point guards and I doubt they would move Rondo with the thought that they have Lin to replace him. I mean, come on. Also, if the Rockets clear the cap, they are signing Melo if he accepts. None of this Pau clap is going to happen, he is washed up.

 

Can someone please make a flow chart here so we can see the critical path? :grin:

 

Prior June 30 - Decline Parsons option
Draft best player available
July 1 - Lineup Melo for S&T but have dumps for Lin and Asik ready.
Mid July - S&T Melo
Late July - Sign or match Parsons :grin:
Late July - Use MLE on Spencer Hawes
Late July - Use BAE on Danny Granger (2 year with player option for 2nd year)

Other free agent options for MLE/BAE/Vet Min. include Trevor Ariza (unlikely), Andrei Kirilenko, Shawn Marion, Kris Humphries, Caron Butler, PJ Tucker, Al-Farouq Aminu, Rashard Lewis, Aaron Brooks, Toney Douglas, Emeka Okafor.

Rockets Lineup:

Beverley/Canaan
Harden/Daniels
Parsons/Melo/Granger
Melo/Hawes/Jones/D-Mo
Howard/Hawes/D-Mo

The only real weakness there is the backup point guard.



My prediction for other teams:
Boston - Trades #6 + Green + Olynyk + Joel Anthony + 2 other picks for Love
Boston - Involved in the Melo S&T getting Asik for a pick

 

*Morey will trade out of the first round - we need the cap space more than another young player. we'll get either a euro-stash player, or future picks.

*Lin gets traded to either the lakers, sixers, jazz, magic, or bucks with a first and second round pick, plus $3M in cash to help pay for some of his salary. - Why those teams? all but the lakers aren't hoping to use their cap space, so why not turn it into a couple of picks and international tv deals? the lakers may be interested in such a deal if they fail to trade for love or sign melo since they would be able to afford him, they would want the picks, and they could cash in on his brand.

*getting rid of lin and our pick is a good move whether or not we are able to sign melo bc we could still afford to sign lowry straight out. or if we really strike out, we could still use the money to build a better bench.

*that being said, i think we could win the bidding war for melo. he wants to join stars and NY failed on the promise to do that for him. the lakers, mavs, and bulls can't really do that. well, kobe and dirk are stars, but will only be with melo for 2 years. the bulls could give us a run for melo but with rose's injury risk, its probably not worth it.

*with a verbal agreement from melo, the rockets can pull the trigger on an asik deal that was probably agreed upon in principal weeks before, just incase melo agreed to sign. he's probably traded to the sixers, cavs, hawks, or hornets for a couple of second round picks. he's worth more, but those teams know we have to trade him.

*with lin/asik traded, we can officially S&T for melo. we will give up some picks, and non-guaranteed contracts of casspi, powell, and covington. melo gets the max and knicks get some compensation.

*parsons is still shopping around for the best deal he can find. The cavs want to win now in order to keep kyrie, they could make a big offer, so can the hornets, and suns. but the cavs strike me as the only team that would overpay (the hornets can't afford it and the suns are usually smarter than that). with melo at SF we dont NEED parsons anymore. we can force a S&T with the leverage of "if you don't trade with us, we'll match the offer." in this case (lets assume the cavs) we could ask for a first round pick that can only be conveyed if its a lotto pick (much like the lowry trade).

*finally, we go "all in" with a near MLE offer to sefolosha, and an LLE offer to hinrich. vet min signings of steimsma and kenyon martin. (notice the defensive theme of the signings).

opening day roster:

dwight-steimsma
TJ-dmo-martin
melo-thabo-garcia
harden-daniels
bev-kirk-canaan


we would be close to the LT, and assured of hitting it in the next year or two... but this team would win 64 games and possibly a championship or 3.

 

Bolded and umm, wouldn't that be better than trading future picks?

 

While I agree that we are unlikely to use our 1st rd pick, I think something needs to be clarified.
Morey cannot avoid the cap hit by simply drafting a Euro-stash player. Every 1st rounder has a cap hold associated with them the minute they are drafted.

In our case, the 25th pick will have a cap hold of $991K, regardless of his status with the team. To make matters worse, the cap hold comes into effect immediately upon drafting (as a safehold to ensure that the team won't spend their way out of the cap and the player will get paid.)

Bottom line: If we are serious about maximizing our cap, Morey will flip the pick (to the future, the 2nd rd or away in a package.)

References:
http://www.cbafaq.com/scale2011.htm
http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/draftpickcapholds.jsp

Note: the cap hit may actually be 120% of the cap hold ($1,189,200), depending upon the agreed terms

 

I predict that the Rockets will sign Emeka Okafor as a FA, to take over Asik's backup C role after we trade him away for assets or in a SnT for a max-level guy.

 

This..

 

Can't have mle and cap space

 

1. If we can trade those guys for cap space, we won't decline Parsons.

2. If we can trade those guys for cap space, we will exercise the option for Parsons and make a max contract offer to multiple guys starting with Lebron, then Bosh, then Dirk.

If we get down to Dirk, the contract offer will be for about $40 over 2 seasons with about $26 million guaranteed (1st year-$20 million guaranteed, second season $6 million guaranteed). This means we could waive Dirk after 1 year and still have enough cap space to sign either LaMarcus or Love in the summer of 2015. And it's a lot of dough for Dirk for basically 1 year (or 2 years if we keep him) of basketball. Would he take it for a chance to win rings over the next season or two? Mavs have around $32 million of cap space without Dirk. Is he going to take $5 million for one season to allow them to sign free agents? And who are they going to sign/acquire?

Kinda puts Dirk in a dilemma. He can get big bucks to walk away to a competitor. And it puts the heat on Cuban to have to field a championship contending team around Dirk quickly.

 

^ I love the idea of the Rockets offering Dirk a super rich offer just to make Cuban look like an ass while only offering Dirk pennies. Of course Dirk will want to stay in Dallas, but it puts Cuban in a bad position. It looks bad and probably ultimately makes Cuban UP his offer to Dirk -- thus lowering their resource options to improve the team. ;-)

 

Yeah. But really..what Cuban will do in response will be offer Dirk a 1-year deal for around $6 million with a "wink-wink" deal to give him the max again in 2015.

So much for you guys that don't think "wink-wink" deals happen.

 

you had me ALL the way until you said offer thabo the MLE. sorry not happening on morey's watch.

 

don't forget, Dwight post-ups. I think an offence of Melo+Harden Iso and Dwight Post-ups is at all bad. Those 3 earned it, with 3 of them, efficiency will be higher. Coaching just needs to install the discipline of not forcing/chucking it, if it's not your night, give it to the 2 guys.

Iso+Iso+Postup is a lock for Play-offs. McHale just need to mix it up with PnR and some plays for role players (3pts/slash/screen-drive), then we get the CHIP! :grin: