Here, a reporter grilling her. Some good material that go both against her and for her. I actually agree re: her loan with a Russian bank being a negative. I wonder how many of you have bothered listening to her actual interviews? If you haven't, you should. Not a lot of people could handle a grilling like that.
That's the decisive point. The candidates from the two (former?) major parties immediately endorsed Macron. History will repeat itself here, in 2002 Jean-Marie LePen made it to the second ballot, but everybody gathered around his rival Jacques Chirac, who won in a landslide (82%). Marine might take it to around 40%, but she'll never get the majority (just like Trump didn't either, by the way). The Front National is already trying to seduce Mélenchon's voters. If you have to lure left-radical voters as an ultra-nationalist party, you're kind of desperate. And talking about change: LePen faces prosecution for using EU money (€ 342 000) to pay her FN employees. Guess that's the French answer of drowning the swamp.
When called out, he privately claims to be a liberal while publically espousing and praising alt-right ideals. He's got the playbook down.
It is a key point. I don't know French politics as well as a citizen, which I admit. As someone on the ground, living there, experiencing it first hand and the effects of their policy. I don't hear what their conversations are at work and when their having coffee. However... I do know politics in general. Enough to make educated guessed. I am also willing to bet on the middle class being out of touch with the working class for similar reasons. They are living in two separate bubbles in most cases. What I do know: party endorsement doesn't always translate in to votes. I don't know French politics to where I can predict how the supporters of those losing candidates will play out, but from my own experience with elections and politics, I do know that people don't always listen to the candidate after they lost. IE Bernie endorsing Clinton. I also am willing to bet that the middle class is out of touch with the working class and just as ignorant of how people really feel. Especially with people associating her with Trump, or white nationalists, or whatever other demonic force they accuse her of being. Really the list goes on. But this type of situation is similar to Trump. People were afraid to say they support Trump publically, because of the negative assocaitions drawn against them. But all of that changes in the voting booth with it's just you and your vote. This is why she stands a good chance. And I love your reasoning. You do a good job explaining the predicted outcomes and I agree, it's hard to sway far left voters for support. She won't get it. But it's that secret support that people are not voicing that is in her favor. It's that moment of truth when some people say OK, enough. It's that near unpredictable element that could play a key role. The same way people were saying they didn't support Trump but actually voting for him. There is also the over confidence factor at play, which helped push Brexit. People were complacent and didn't care enough to vote. It comes down to wanting something badly enough to get people out to vote. If Le Pen has her side motivated and the other side listens to the "Macron will win" narrative, they may elect to go home. If the working class is hungry enough for change, they will pull a Frexit right under the nose of the Macron's support if they get complacent. Anyway, I like your post and you make good points. I just think Le Pen has a lot of intangibles in her favor and very well COULD upset this election. We'll find out soon enough I guess. Side note: Is anyone on here going to be voting in this election? Do we have any French nationals on Clutchfans?
I'm closest to a classical liberal. Again, not alt-right. I don't support people who hail Trump, nor do I truly support Trump. Nor am I conservative. I do believe that at the moment the centrists are not able to get things done in France. Your understanding of my views is limited to what you want to see. I often disagree with the left and right, however at the moment mostly leftists hold power. They are the ones being held accountable this election and they seem to not have real solutions. Here is a further explanation of where I stand: Classical liberalism is a political ideology and a branch of liberalism which advocates civil liberties under the rule of law, and emphasizes economic freedoms found in economic liberalism which is also called free market capitalism. Now this is very broad. As for how it translates into today's political landscape, I think that it's an openness of mind that allows one to critique the establishment, whether it's left or right. Today's so-called liberals (neoliberals) have actually become more authoritarian than anything, wanting to police speech and use political correctness as a weapon. This is not a liberal move in my opinion and goes against what true liberals value. So yeah, I see things as less "PC" and more ration-based, which is why I really don't care that Le Pen wants to boot out the migrants since they are ruining the country. I don't care what her father said in the 1980s because she is her own woman. And I really don't care if people are scared of leaving the EU because feelings. Most of the people on this forum aren't even real liberals for that matter. Plenty of you are likely communists who post on their iPhone or socialists at best. Which is why to those of you who have fallen far left, I probably do seem like I am from the right (Or a Russian agent! Eh Comrade?). Also my Avatar is a Pepe. Get over it. He's endearing. He's lasting. And he triggers snowflakes like you. Though, admittedly, my intention in using him wasn't to trigger you. It was because the Rockets got written off this season and now they are the bell of the ball. That's why I chose a smug Pepe with a Rockets hat for a Rockets forum.
Oh look, http://www.france24.com/en/20170424-livethe-winners-losers-all-latest-updates-french-election The French President picks Macron... yep, a real revolutionary outsider isn't he. And the election will be May 7. That's a lot of time for Le Pen to drum up support. Anything can happen at this point. And people can get even more complacent about the establishment's new golden boy winning. This reeks of Brexit. It smells of Trump. And it is all too similar to what is essentially a shift in the swinging pendulum of politics. It always goes back in the other direction, and the question is when. Maybe I'll change my avatar to a Pepe Le Pen on election day. We should do a friendly bet. I'll change my avatar to an EU flag for a week if Macron wins. And if Le Pen wins, you have to change it to Pepe Le Pen for a week. Any takers?
I'm a citizen but I won't be voting. Decided a long time ago that I'd abstain if I wasn't living in the country and suffering the consequences of my votes. Le Pen may make me regret that decision if she wins and takes away my citizenship. Sounds like a libertarian to me.
Look. I'm pressing you to come clean on your ideals and where you stand not to bash you, but to understand where you are going with your positions. You put everything together (and the Pepe the frog avatar which I don't take serious sense its based on the Rockets' disposition this year) your ideals start to make more sense, and I continue to realize I know more and more people like you. I will say this.... back in the George W. day I believe yourself, and the folks now that follow guys like Steven Crowder, etc. would probably be labeled as Liberal right? I might have even gotten into some of those positions myself back at that point in my life. Its amazing how those same groups of people could be Bernie people as likely as they could be GOP Trump people if not for one or two small issues. GOP conservatives now have embraced the very same ideals that would have fought against George W. Bush just a few years ago. Its an obsession with "outsiders" and deconstruction. I think where we are now is dividing based on belief of institutions vs. wanting to blow everything up, vs. people just looking out for themselves with the vehicles they have (what I think the GOP leaders like Paul Ryan & the elite 1% are doing right now as we speak). But to the "wanting to blow everything up" Nationalist/Bannon/LePen "Outsiders" stance & objectives - (Here's where you get my viewpoint) I get it... I get why one might say, screw the whole system, lets blow it all up. However.... I'd just challenge you guys on this spectrum to study history more than anything here. Especially pre world war European history and how Nationalism effected much of Europe, and really Russia was a big piece of this movement. We in the US have the unique ability to be essentially an island with only two country borders where as Europe has so many countries, cultures, etc. packed into a tight land mass. But we found out during both World Wars that we can't ignore that part of the world because ultimately we will get sucked in, and have to defend ourselves. There is no wall big enough to encapsulate the United States where we can live in some sort of utopia Elysium space station (that movie was a massive disappointment fyi). LePen's Nationalism "Outsider" movement, if successful, wont save France's culture, or preserve their way of life. It puts them in a state of defense rather than offensively taking positions to solve root problems in Europe & the middle east that affect them. If Merkel is voted out of Germany and they fall out of the EU as well, that's pretty much all Russia needs to launch a full on assault to retake the Baltic states (which they are already trying to do), and at the same time each country will have to prove their dominance and defenses against other neighboring countries. This is exactly what happened in WW1 due to Nationalism. Look up the Serbian nationalist group that set off a war because of an assignation on a Archduke as a way of showing their independence. Fake Trump Nationalism is one thing.... An actual Nationalist France & Germany would be very very bad as history shows. How would Nationalist countries prove themselves nonviolently in 2017 to 2030? Through limiting trade? Will France & Germany be able to produce and manufacture in a self sustainable way to grow their economy? What about the violent self preservation route? Will they go the Kim Jung route by pumping their chest through an arms race enough to say don't F with us or we will nuke you. In a lot of ways we can learn a lot about what being cut off and silo'ed can do for your country by looking at North Korea. Frances problem isn't liberal Democracy. Its Assad for start. Russian & Putin Second. They need to join in more in helping stabilize the region. They also do a piss poor job in ghettoizing immigrants and not properly having a system for integrating those that do legally and illegally live in their country. This creates class divides that creates a breading ground for disenfranchised youth which could become radicalized. Improved institutions can help in these areas. Here in the US, we don't need a F-ing wall. We need better partnerships & more democratic governments to work with in Central America especially that can help us by helping stabilize their own countries. Look at Venezuela as a prime example. Does Trump even have an ambassador to Venezuela right now? Did you not see Trump's gut job on the State Department in his budget? Who in the US government do you think is working with countries in South America etc. to work towards America's best interest? Look I get the theory that is behind folks that think like you do now. I'd just say listen to folks that have a different opinion, and continue to learn about history and how our institutions support our own interests. Nationalism didn't work Pre-WW1 and if it didn't work pre WW, it sure as hell won't work in a technology globalized 2017 & beyond. We've seen this show before, and in the end it just led to a sh#$ ton of death & destruction even if it did advance our technology through war manufacturing. Technology advancements in the future can come from a lot more productive places than war and destruction. Just my take.
There's a lot of truth in what you write and I think the points you make are the main reasons for Trump's and Brexit's victory. A low voter turnout because people say "Macron wins it anyway" is LePen's best chance. I just don't see that happen for various reasons. A party endorsement doesn't automatically collect all the votes, sure, but when it comes to choose the lesser evil, which seems to be the case here, people will do their best to avoid LePen like they did in 2002. Of course, a lot can happen in the next two weeks. Putin will send another accommodation, LePen will focus even more on fear and nationalism, on the other hand Macron will be aware of illustrating himself as the voice of reason. Predictions say right now it's about 60-40 in favor of Macron, that's too much to compare it to Trump and Brexit, when it was about 55-45 or something like that. Speaking of Trump and Brexit: Just like in Austria and the Netherlands I think it will actually help Macron, because non-voters and protest-voters see the consequences of this kind of populistic vote and make sure it won't happen to them, even though they would like to send a message to the "establishment". They've already done that yesterday.
Had you read my response to you post you'd understand that I am a French citizen. I live in Paris and am part of the everyday conversations you mention. Btw Am i the only French resident here ? Anyways Le Pen much like here father before will get crushed in the second round as every other major candidates will suggest to vote for Macron. We are a country of social heritage and thus our moral values lean away from the Front National which is largely seen as a xenophobic and racist party (although Marine Le Pen has tried to clean that image inherited from her father).
Thanks so much for your insight. It's great to be able to have access to your view point on this election.
It's a relief that the French are not as stupid as Americans and won't turn their country over to a nutcase like we did.
