Former Astros Tracking Thread

I can't remember whose bit it was (maybe alleged wife beater Jonah Keri) but they used to refer to pitchers as either above or below "the Wandy line" which was, in their opinion, the face of "average quality big league starter".

That seems fair with Wandy. He had his moments. He pitched at times like a stud. He pitched at times like a dud. But he pretty much took the ball every day (as I remember it) it was offered to him, ate some innings of average quality. That's really a hell of a 4 starter for most teams. If he's your #3 starter you are probably hoping for things to break your way to get in the wild card game. Unless you have 3 guys just like him following 2 studs, in which case you are a playoff team, probably, without a ton of upside.

 

My guess is if you could guarantee that would happen that would be what- like $60 or $65 in surplus value? That would make the MM trade really really bad.

 

I hated that trade.

 

Wandy was criminally underrated. 2007-2012 he put up 18 fWAR. He was a very solid #3 for those 6 seasons and would have been a #2 on most teams. He just never had an ace season and pitched on mediocre teams for a franchise in decline. I was really disappointed in the return they got for him, although I had high hopes for Grossman.

 

I still can't believe we traded him for such a light return. Even if he never pitched for the Astros in the majors, it was so obvious at the time that his value would be much higher this season.

 

Me too. Especially considering we ate a bunch of salary when we dealt him to Pittsburg.
I can tell you this- if we had the Wandy of 07-12 right now we wouldn't be looking forward to throwing him in the playoffs, and we'd have still done the Greinke deal, imo, but we also probably wouldn't have gotten Wade Miley. I'd love to slot Wandy into a spot in the 2020 rotation (that Wandy anyway).

 

So did everybody else. I wonder how often he thinks about the contract that he never took?

 

Miley is such an odd pitcher. He’s still massively over performing his FIP/xFIP even though his average exit velocity has regressed this season.

 

Miley is a true FIP-beater. EV doesn't help much if it is pounded into the ground. Miley leads all SPs in xwOBACON (i.e., he's given up the contact that is least likely to do damage). Mmmmmm Bacon. FIP/xFIP massively underestimate how good Miley is. Not quite sure I'd count on a near 3 ERA going forward, but it isn't close to the FIP/xFIP numbers either.

 

That's a good point and something I was looking at as well. I know exit velocity can be sticky for pitchers but I'm not sure how sticky xwOBACON is, although he's replicated it ever since moving to using his cutter heavily.

 

Overall xwOBA is as good as FIP in year to year predicting wOBA (proxy for ERA that is easier for calculations). xwOBA becomes reliable sooner. For someone like Miley, I would heavily favor xwOBA as xwOBACON is a skill that FIP only partially captures (homers can be used as a weak proxy for quality of contact).

 

I love this. I love this so ****ing much, more than yall will ever know.

 

Now you’re just making up words.

 

Y'all keep talking about BACON and you're gonna find Tyler White back on our doorstep. Watch yourselves.

 

I wouldn't mind if the Dodgers played White this year at MMP.

 

Blue Jays DFA David Paulino.

 

Surprised to see that. He’s still only 25. Although he has been constantly injured and is out of options. Would not be surprised to see him claimed.

 

Joshua Rojas has 15 hits in his last 5 games...