Historically, he deserves to get paid. I don't know what he's getting offered, but I think he deserves to get $50-$75M depending on contract length. I'm not saying the Astros should pay him that (I'd love to see him back but it would be hard for us to go more than 2 years). The timing really sucks for these guys. I've never sweated about the HOF caliber players that are still going to get paid, but other guys that don't hit FA until after 30? Those types are just screwed right now.
It does suck that mostly all of MLB decided not to be throwing stupid money around just to spend money. The Astros and Cubs showed pretty well that you can strip it down, and fans will mostly either come back (or not care) and winning cures everything. Iv'e always thought it was irresponsible that any pitcher get a long term deal more than 3 years... its seemingly never panned out for any team or player. Scherzer is possibly the one modern exception, but he's still got a few more years left on his deal. Certainly worked for Verlander, but his team had to trade him eventually. In hindsight, of course Dallas should have taken the 5 year deal in 2015... would still have 2 more years guaranteed bigger money.... and where things are now, it's making it far more likely that players will accept extensions vs testing free agency (another advantage for the Astros).
Well, the system doesn't allow the players who should be making more (superstars in years 3-5) to make more unless they agree to an early extension (whereby teams will usually want them to fork over some free agency years). The league minimum has gone up... but mega-deals for barely all-star players have gone down. Most will say those players shouldn't have gotten mega-deals in the first place. Its a market correction due to smart teams assigning set dollar figures for production, not revenue-based.
The average salary has gone down 2 years in a row for the first time in MLB history. MLB revenue has increased for about 2 decades. This has nothing to do with your salient points. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26361979/mlb-average-salary-track-2nd-straight-drop
We've established why that's happening though, teams aren't paying guys in their mid 30's beyond a year or 2 like they have been in the past because it's a proven terrible investment. At this point people want owners to give out more money because it's the "fair" thing to do, not because facts support it. The system is completely f**ked, and now that owners are wise to it salaries are gonna continue to deflate until the system is adjusted somehow. Nobody will ever argue the owners aren't cheap, but from a financial standpoint it's nearly impossible to argue.
Lots of media reports out there said Keuchel wanted 6 years 150 million. Based on his performance last year, that was a ridiculous ask. He wanted more than Corbin and he is older and had a worse year. I have no doubt that if Happ could get 17 million a year at his age that Keuchel at least had offers in that range if not more. Once Corbin came off the board Happ, Morton, and Eovaldi signed somewhat quick as well. Meanwhile, Keuchel was still asking for the moon. Plus, how many teams did it actually make sense for him to sign with? Not that many when a third of the teams are tanking. Think about it... Keuchel was asking for the same AAV that Bryce Harper settled for. I know, Harper had the 13 year deal, but still that was too big an ask by Boras.
It “should” be going to younger players earlier... but that’s not the system the union bargained for.
I’m talking more about pre-arb and arb players. We know that owners are fully willing to give extensions when they don’t have to... Keuchel turned down a 5 year $75+million one in 2015. If players don’t take more early money, with the hope they’ll hit it bigger in eventual free agency, they run the risk of missing out on both ends.
I remember when the former Astros thread featured discussion of actual former Astros... not simply former prospects.
