http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-houston-rockets-preview/ Has us projected at 52 wins, 30 losses (losing four more games than last season) in spite of picking up Lawson, another year of continuity, and likely being more healthy than last season. I think their projection is a bit low. I think we may win 60 this year, but I may be biased! What do you all think? Discuss.
The player comparisons are hilarious. Dwight is most comparable to Emeka Okafor? Ty Lawson is most comparable to Andre Miller? Among others... If the Rockets stay healthy (admittedly big 'if'), there's no way they come close to 52 wins. They'll blow past that with ease.
These projections are based upon the fair assumption that OKC will be back to their usual dominant selves. With only Dallas taking a step back, it isn't too far-fetched to assume that we could finish with a worse record.
we may win or not less games this year BUT i have a very low opinion of predictions like those. They think that a team is like the ingredients of a soup and you can just add each players contributions and you got the number of team wins, and their projections are idiotic. (and use a false database in the first place with wrong heights and positions for multiple players).
True, I forgot about Portland. Still you can replace them and Dallas with Utah +OKC and the West is much more difficult this year
Comps appear to be based on WAR--possibly at that age? At least that's why I assume they're so far off across the board in terms of playing styles, if that's what you were comparing
I have us at 65+ wins and the championship ring based on strength and depth of roster. Anything less and the "play harder" "clap clap" coach needs to be shown the exit door.
I remember this formula from last year, it tends to forecast everybody pretty low. Also it needs to be said that - had we done the Rockets forecast last year, accounting for injuries in the forecast, they would have barely been a 45 win team.
They were pretty good last other than the Rockets and Mavericks. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-rise-of-the-warriors/
Personally I think that IF OKC gets back to playing at a high level it won't happen right out of the gate. And if health is being taken into the equation, their health is a huge issue as well. There top two guys are constantly busted up these days.
I am calling it right now, assuming Lawson does not get more than 3 games off due to a supension, we will win 60+. This team is 3 deep at almost every position, except center. With that kind of depth and overall talent, even the dreaded "i" won't stand a chance let alone the vast majority of NBA teams. We will steamroll others teams like dang pancakes.
With the talent we have, we should win about 60 games give or take. Anything less than the WCF would be a disappointment given what we accomplished last year.
It still does say that we "should compete for a title"... it's the playoff records that count, not pre-season prediction records.
Proof that you can use fancy infographics to hide a terrible analysis. According to this "CARMELO": McHale will have a 13 man rotation Trevor Ariza will only play 26.4 mpg Sam Dekker will play twice as much as Capela, the same mpg as KJ & the same mpg as Thornton Capela will play 4.8 mpg TJ & D-Mo will combine for three times more playing time at C over Capela Montrezl will play as much as Capela D-Mo will only play 2 minutes more than Dekker each night at PF Also W-L projection is based off every team member's CARMELO score, but there is actually no CARMELO score for Capela.
