With six seconds left, I’ll play a safety over the top on Colvin’s side and trust my defense to not allow a game-winning touchdown. Even better, I’d put someone else in Colvin’s spot and still have safety help over the top. Either of those options are better than option #2.
If an NFL defensive coordinator is so afraid of his secondary allowing a 48-yard touchdown pass on the final play of the game than a kicker making a 58-yard field goal in a dome, he needs to stop coaching. The situation with six seconds left was not difficult for the Texans. They were in the drivers seat and the Saints were the ones stuck between a rock and a hard place. Unless you think 48-yard touchdown passes or penalties happen all the time on the final play of the game. Drew Brees gift wrapped the win for the Texans by taking too much time to spike the ball on the prior play, but the Texans’ coaching staff said hold my beer and gave it right back.
The fact that me and @Deckard at a combined 180 yrs could have completed that 7-yard completion against no coverage is what most people see as the stinging indictment of the coach's odd decision. You should have heard Steve Young yelling about this on the radio yesterday. it was so damned hilarious.
It seems to come down to simple math. Unless you think the odds of completing a 50 yard TD pass (when they aren't trying to go for a TD) is higher than a 58 yd FG, this was a terrible defensive strategy. If you estimate the odds of the FG at 30-40%, the odds of the TD should be far less. If it's not, everyone should be fired because your defense is the worst in the history of all of football.
Ah! That's an interesting thought... Using Pro Football Reference's win probability calculator: @Hou40 = 44.5% win probability; 2.995 (expected points) Let's start moving them back a yard: @Hou41 = 43.9% win probability; 2.93 (expected points) @Hou42 = 43.5% win probability; 2.86 (expected points) @Hou43 = 43.0% win probability; 2.80 (expected points) @Hou44 = 42.4% win probability; 2.70 (expected points) @Hou45 = 41.9% win probability; 2.60 (expected points) @Hou46 = 41.4% win probability; 2.60 (expected points) @Hou47 = 40.9% win probability; 2.53 (expected points) @Hou48 = 40.4% win probability; 2.47 (expected points) And then here's where they were prior to the final play: @Hou49 = 35.1% win probability; 1.78 (expected points) So, yeah - not surprisingly, it's a big jump (from 35.1% to 44.5%). However, the odds were still in the Texans' favor, and, as you can see, as few as 2 yards would've jumped the Saints into the territory of 2.5-3 expected points, which speaks to my idea that the Texans biggest mistake was really leaving Drew Brees too much time. Right, and if he misses the kick - that's probably the last we hear of it - again, other than the perpetually angry Texans fans who look for any excuse to drag the team.
See? I don't agree - not as long as the Saints had a timeout. That, to me, was the key because it meant they could call virtually anything, as opposed to being relegated to quick sideline routes.
Other than the Texans playing off the Saints’ receivers and gifting them the short completion they needed to make a game-winning field goal manageable, please enlighten everyone as to what play the Saints could have called that results in a 5-10 yard completion and takes under six seconds without it being designed to quickly get out of bounds. Because if it takes six seconds or more and the nose of the football doesn’t cross the end zone, the Saints lose.
What about going with a "Prevent the Defense from 'defending' " strategy in these situations? Basically, with about 40 seconds to go you purposely fall a yard or 2 from the end zone even with zero timeouts. Clock is running..now down to 24 seconds. You can have 2 run plays before the clock expires or 3 pass plays . You have to think outside the box. It still has a better chance of succeeding than expecting this Defense to hold. If our offense fails to score in those 24 seconds so be it. You tip your chin strap to their goal line defense
Gotta laugh at BoB's clock management expertise yet again. Anyone who thinks he's magically going to learn to coach better is a damn fool.
If we lose this game against Jacksonville, we need to fire BOB and tank so we can get high draft picks to rebuild the team.
I am still pissed off that they let 20 seconds run off in the first half with 3 timeouts left.....Bill O'Brien is a SHITTY coach. DD
I hope someone questions him about the clock management in the postgame presser. He'll probably say he was trying to save them for challenges in the 2nd half.
I'm no where close to what one would consider "knowledgeable" when it comes to NFL playcalling but when I see elite offenses I always notice two things: 1. The coach trusts the qb to go no huddle for consecutive plays outside two minute drills. This throws off the defense and allows the QB to get in a passing rhythm. 2. Coach makes sure to utilize all passing options from the RB to the TEs. His offensive playcalling is just far too predictable.
