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Fire Bill O'Brien

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by DonnyMost, Sep 23, 2016.

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Should we fire Bill O'Brien?

  1. Yes

    67.2%
  2. No

    21.9%
  3. Abstain (for the moment)

    10.9%
  1. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    The Saints were going to run a quick strike REGARDLESS of the coverage. They had NO OTHER OPTION. You seem to be suggesting if the Texans had come out in press, the Saints would've shrugged their shoulders and walked into the locker room. They had a TO - that opened the field to them - there was no reason to go to the sideline. Quick hitch route, get down, kick the field goal. That was their ONLY viable plan. And, BTW - the other likely reason the Texans didn't press: pass interference, which, remember, is now reviewable specifically because the Saints got screwed by a non-call of it. Give space, don't draw a flag, keep everything in front of you and inbounds, force a long FG.

    The ONLY wrinkle: an offensive player breaking free and running uncovered (or loosely covered) - which, given the disparity in their personnel and our personnel, wasn't entirely unfathomable and would've only been possible in press coverage. So RAC took that & the penalty off the table and forced a long field goal.

    I'm not arguing it was the BEST defense - they should have made it harder to complete a pass. But this idea that they "failed" because they forced the Saints to beat them on a 58-yard field goal just seems... odd to me.
     
  2. likestohypeguy

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    True talent saved him in the Fire Swamp, and he treated it like garbage! And that's what he is! The Coach of Refuse!

    So bow down to him if you want! Bow to him! Bow to the Coach of Slime! The Coach of Filth! The Coach of Putrescence! Boo! Boo! Rubbish! Filth! Slime! Muck! Boo! Boo! Boo!
     
  3. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

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    I am saying if the Texans played man press at the line of scrimmage and legally jammed the Saints’ receivers within the first five yards along with bringing pressure odds are good that either Brees doesn’t complete the pass and they have to try a Hail Mary or he does and the clock runs out before they can attempt the field goal. It took three seconds for Brees to complete a wide-open, seven-yard pass to Ginn, Jr. It would take more time if the Texans’ secondary was actually trying to cover the Saints’ receivers.

    Also, if you think the odds of the Saints hitting a 45-yard pass on the final play of the game or the Texans committing a penalty are greater than the Saints completing a seven or eight-yard pass in less than six seconds and their kicker making a 58-yard-field goal with no harsh weather conditions to contend with, there’s nothing worth discussing.
     
    #4143 DVauthrin, Sep 11, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
    Nook likes this.
  4. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    14 points in a half vs saints 27 points = BoB fked up with da offense and RAC didn't do well on defense.
     
  5. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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  6. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Basically this.
     
  7. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Bill O'Brien is a glorified college coach. He has no business coaching a professional NFL team.
     
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  8. Major

    Major Member

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    They made it super-easy for the Saints to do exactly what the Saints ideally wanted to do and what everyone knew what they were going to try to do. How is that a good thing? Your goal is to force the other team to NOT do the thing they want to do.

    They forced a kicker to kick a 58 yard field goal, yes. The only problem was that was the best possible outcome for the Saints. Your alternatives were to make them run out of tiem, hit a hail mary, or kick a 65 yard field goal. Your only goal on defense there is to try to make them do any one of those three things - not the thing you let them do.

    This seems like football 101 to me.
     
  9. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast
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    "Hey, they had 3 options and we gave them the best of the 3!"
     
  10. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I've never compared the two outcomes as one being better than the other. What I have said is that while the Texans could have defended the final play differently/better - what they wound up doing forced a low percentage final play that favored them, based on a variety of factors. It might not have been the *best* outcome but I'm hard-pressed to call it a *bad* outcome. Forcing a kicker who had never made one from that distance and had missed from 56 yards earlier, to win the game from 58 yards... I'm struggling to get terribly angry about that.

    I think a lot of fans are taking the fact he absolutely CRUSHED that kick and then working backwards under the assumption it was an easy kick.
     
  11. Major

    Major Member

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    Why do they get credit for this? EVERY outcome was going to force a low percentage final play that favored the Texans. You're giving them praise for doing something that they couldn't have not done. They openly gave New Orleans the best of all the available possibilities and more importantly the possibility New Orleans wanted.

    They gave a super-reliable kicker with a 75% success rate the past 2 years in 50+ yard kicks a long field goal in a indoor stadium with no wind.
     
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  12. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I never said it was a good thing; or, at least - I don't think I have. My point has been fans working backwards from Lutz CRUSHING that kick and applying anything "easy" to the situation. He made it *look* easy - but it was not easy.

    Right; the Saints had to pick their poison as none of their options were optimal. And, no - the best possible outcome for the Saints would've been their superior personnel finding a way to get behind the Texans' inferior personnel. That was the nightmare scenario - and it's *only* in play if the Texans are pressing/blitzing. And I'm not arguing they shouldn't have - I'm merely trying to get inside RAC's head, and I'd wager that's probably what he was thinking.

    I mean, would you rather 1) Aaron Colvin be matched up 1-on-1 with Ted Ginn with the game on the line; or 2) force Will Lutz, who had missed from 56 yards earlier and had a career long of 54, to hit a 58-yard FG? I think that's where RAC started - option #2 is better; work from there.
     
  13. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    There were 2 seconds left on the clock. That was with an uncontested, give-yourself-up, 7 yard curl. Wasn't even really a curl or any sort of plant foot separation move because there was no need to create separation. It was run 7 yards, turn around, catch the ball, sit down fast, call time-out. Any close coverage that would cause a contested catch or a tackle or a 10 yard route...anything that forced the receiver to do anything else would have taken more time. Just 2 more seconds and the game is over. If the superior receivers get behind the corners and still make a catch in front of the safeties, the time runs out. I cannot agree with you if you're arguing that it's harder for the Saints to make a 7-yard no coverage completion (and subsequent 58-yard FG) than it is to throw a 48 yard touchdown pass against man press with safety help. I don't think that's what you're arguing, because it's Aaron Colvin 1-on-1 with no time on the clock and safety help and only a 48-yard touchdown will lose the game. In scenario A, the play is sure to work and the FG try becomes the decider (in a dome). In scenario B, once the 48-yard TD is defended (because any other play over 7 yards ends the game without any time), the game is over.
     
  14. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Man... I think you'd be hard-pressed to find any instance of me... "praising" the Texans..... I'm just not *killing* them. I ultimately think two overwhelming factors were unfortunately in play: 1) the Saints had a timeout remaining; 2) the Saints have Drew Brees.

    I mean... honestly - and I don't mean this literally but the worst thing the Texans did was score so quickly. :37, a timeout and only needing ~30 yards... and we're surprised/upset/angry that the QB with the third-most 4Q comebacks in NFL history was able to pull that off?

    It just feels like a small sample size that everyone is focusing on (and for obvious reasons, of course) that is overruling what was, IMO, a pretty encouraging 59:23.

    That "super-reliable" kicker was 0-1 in the game from 56. And how many of those 50+-yard field goals the past two years were game-winners? That's a very important dynamic you conveniently left out of your narrative, don't you think?
     
  15. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    so many games where opponent is allowed to easily march downfield on final possession
     
  16. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Right; it doesn't stop the play. They can still run into the end zone - that's the fear.

    No; I'm not arguing that. I've articulated my opinion all throughout the thread: I think fans are conveniently dismissing how difficult a situation that was for the Texans, given the Saints had a timeout and, you know, Drew Brees. And, too many fans are working backwards from the ease of Lutz's kick to conclude the Texans didn't force the Saints into a pretty tight spot. I think they did and Lutz just crushed it. Credit to him; that was a huge kick.

    But forcing a team to kick a 58-yard field goal to win the game... I mean, those are odds you can live with.
     
  17. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Funny; I'd argue what the Texans did was much harder and impressive - driving 70+ yards in about ~:20 when they needed not a field goal but a touchdown. But no one is killing the Saints.

    Good teams - and I think the Texans are a good team - make good things happen. I think we can give the Saints a little credit and not just "BILL O'BRIEN SUCKS!"
     
  18. marky :)

    marky :) Member
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    I don't think you realize that its 2019 and kickers are far better than they have ever been. They are more accurate at further distances than before. I mean just your example of missing a 56 yarder before and then making the 58 yarder to win the game shows that. So he was literally 50% from 55 yards or more that game. The option we needed to give them was a hail mary bomb into the end zone. The percentage of completion I'm sure is far less than 50%.

    Lutz has made 58% of his FG from 50+ yards and his previous longest FG was 57 yards. The Saints decided that they were going to let him win the game for a reason.

    This is the problem. We gave them the best odds to beat us by giving them that short pass that lead into a FG.
     
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  19. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    And, here's thing, @Major - if Lutz had missed the field goal - as he had done on a shorter one earlier in the game which didn't have the added dynamic of it being a game-winner... Would ANYBODY be wailing about the defense on the final play? (the answer, of course, is probably YES! because Texans fans generally don't seem very happy or that they like the team very much and are always looking for reasons to beat them up. But, you get my point...)

    To me, that's the stinging indictment of this outrage - it sure seems to me that the Saints *executing* is what we're REALLY upset about.
     
  20. Major

    Major Member

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    Fair enough on the praise. And I agree that Brees + TO made it reasonable that the Saints could win this. And it was a difficult FG. I'm just saying the Texans had two choices: make it easier; make it harder. The picked the former. I think if you look a the win probability before that play and after it, it probably went up.

    Sure - a small sample size like this?

    I'm not sure it matters, really. Is there any evidence of lower kick success rates at ends of games? Or in meaningful FGs? Is Lutz worse at game-winning kicks? Does it matter that it was game 1 vs the playoffs? As far as I know, like baseball, there's not a lot of "clutchness" in kicks when looked as a whole.

    YES! The announcers were pointing it out and lambasting it the minute it happened before the kick. People here were going "what the hell" before the kick happened. This doesn't require hindsight.
     
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