If Dwight comes to Houston he has leverage. We give up our farm to get him and then he won't resign. The only way he'll sign is if we do a sign and trade with Brooklyn otherwise he walks. That's why I believe when this is all said and done with, we'll have Brooke Lopez and Kris Humphries.
Did you read the first post entirely? (I don't mean that rudely) He can sign with an under the cap team for a max contract but it will cost him approximately $30 million over the life of the contract vs signing with Houston. Dallas is probably the only team that can threaten to go sign with honestly, and that is based on current cap situations. He really has very little leverage in my opinion.
at that point we try and find another team that is willing to take him on for a rental. Screw DH. The team needs to do what's best for the team and not cater to these cry babies. Set an example that you could end up in nba purgatory if you try and dictate where you want to go. Send him to the Wizards or Bobcats for all I care.
So here are some interesting nuggets I've found that I want some clarification on before adding to the FAQ. Regarding the sign and trade and the possibility of sending him to Brooklyn, these are restrictions in the CBA on sign and trades. The way I read this, it would be very difficult for the Nets to even complete a sign and trade for Dwight after the 2012 season because they would be over the luxury tax threshold.
So what is the max dwight can sign for in FA with Brooklyn? How much will he lose? Sorry I read the FAQ and I am just student asking questions.
No problemo that's what the thread is for. The most he could sign for as a FA is $3.5 million for 3 years. He'd be walking away from approximately a 5 year $100+ million contract to sign a 3 year $10 million contract. It would have to be a helluva shoe deal to convince him to do that. If that back goes out in year 2, he just lost $90 million. And that ONLY counts the math up front. It doesn't take into account the long term losses he'd take due to the difference between the max he could sign here and the continuing raises and the one he could sign after that 3 year contract in Brooklyn which would be lower.
seems like dallas is in the drivers seat for howard in terms of the FA and money side right? Seems like rockets could sign and trade with Brooklyn or Dallas? Maybe Lakers. His only teams are dallas and brooklyn right? Otherwise outright trade his ass to Lakers before deadline but that would mean we were hoping bynum would sign? Maybe a swap a roo and we sign bynum and they sign howard. At that point its likely bynum would sign since he has been pretty clear that he wants to get paid. So with howard jetting the results are: 1)us with bynum, 2)dallas trash, 3)Brooklyn trash, 4)empty slot to sign 2 max FA? Im still unclear.. One thing for sure with howard, we need approach this from the 'dude aint signing with us in FA'
Meant to say with howard jetting in FA the 5 possible likely results are: 1)us with bynum, 2)us with dallas trash sign and trade, 3)us Brooklyn trash sign and trade,, 4)empty slot to sign 2 max FA?If I understand this correctly? right? maybe add a 6) and say 'some other All star in a trade for howard' right?
#1 is possibility #2 is unlikely if not outright ruled out. The new CBA tries to discourage star movement through sign and trade and therefore makes it so a player can't get more money in sign and trade then he could in an outright signing for the max. We couldn't give him the 5th year or 7.5% raises and then trade him to Dallas. Dallas would just outright sign him. #3 might be possible (still not clear. It is possible that if Brooklyn is over the luxury tax they couldn't trade for him anyway) but is extremely unlikely in my mind. #4 is possibility
4)empty slot to sign 2 max FA? So if howard walks in FA we can sign 2 max players? Even while still having hedo or davis or whoever right? That is one of the stated facts here correct? Whereas ORL would have to carry those bad contract guys and only have room for one max contract presuming howard had left? So the advantage to ORL to trade to houston is getting a bunch of room to pursue how many max guys? Also ORL gets to shed hedo and co. too and gets great picks from us. So seems like of the places that howard would sign LA,NJ,DAL we have the best offer for ORL. Seems like Bynum deal for ORL is the 2nd choice vs Rockets deal. Seems like LA is not going to take on Hedo and the bad contracts since LA ownership is going cheap new 'Buss'. Also Bynum should sign but that is not clear too so ORL doesn't know. Even then Bynum has health and personality issues too. Seems like shedding and then being clear how many max and how many picks and what might be the best deal for ORL. ORL holds the key to first domino. If they are getting stab at more max guys and picks down the road vs. keeping hedo and the other baddies. Well we are the best option.. even if they wait and let dwight walk we would have been the best option. that is if I am understanding this correctly.
Updated with information on offer sheets and the Jeremy Lin offer. Mods, would it be out of line to ask this to be stickied so I can find it easier for updating?
Can't answer that until we see what the deals are. Depends heavily on what players we take back in the trade, whether we sign Courtney Lee, whether we get Lin or Asik, etc.
Lin and Asik are not part of picture. I thought we were past that. It was my understanding that we could take on the bad contracts, lose dwight in FA and still afford 2 max deals? If that is yes then we are good either way since we can sign 2 max later.. or try and get howard in meantime. If howard walks then we are cool too since we have 2 max slots open. So it comes down to howard and what he wants to do. If he wants to get to dallas that is possible and he will make pretty decent. If he wants to get to Brooklyn he won't be able to make much supposedly. Whether he goes to dallas or brooklyn in FA doesnt mean jack if we can use 2 slots to fill with max FA. So maybe it's true we are in drivers seat on some weird level to have bunch of room for 2 maxes when we want or we can try and pick up howard in meantime. All the while we can develop our rookies and make them more attractive too. maybe morey really is playing chess when we are all playing checkers.
If Dwight lands here, Houston is in the drivers seat. And it is all thanks to the new CBA... By leaving via Free Agency or S&T Howard could be leaving as much as $56.7MM on the table, ($9.5MM by year 5). If you wish for an in depth breakdown click the spoiler: Spoiler The first 5 Years: The new CBA has increased the incentive for Max Free Agents to extend via Bird Rights. The difference between staying with your current team vs leaving via FA or S&T is as follows: By re-signing with Houston, Howard would be extended over a 5 year period at 7.5% vs. a 4 year period at 4.5%. This is assuming a Max Extension. Note the last column in the Free Agency or S&T row is highlighted red. This is because it represents a Max 7.5% increase in the first eligible year of new Bird Rights. by Year 5 Howard is already $9.5MM behind. However it's in the next 4 years of salary increases that Howard realizes his greatest losses. Spoiler The NEXT 4 Years: Under the original Bird Rights scenario Howard becomes eligible for an extension at Year 5. If he leaves via FA or S&T he becomes eligible for extension at Year 4. Under both scenarios the Max Veteran Extension Increase is 7.5% over 4 years. Notice by Year 9 Howard is now 35 years of age, and one can only assume his days of actually earning a Max Contract are well behind him. By leaving via FA or S&T Howard misses out on one guaranteed max year (9). This year alone is valued at $36.9MM. At age 35, the scenario of leaving via FA or S&T suddenly seems a bit foolish There is a reason Einstein called compound interest the most power force in the universe. more powerful than kryptonite...
