Morton embraced PITCHf/x and advanced stats early in his career with Atlanta, which didn't get off to the most sparkling start. When he started off with the Pirates, he adopted the 2-seam fastball as his primary heater and dropped his arm slot, giving him a delivery reminiscent of Roy Halladay. The doubts about whether his velocity gains are legit seem to be quelled. Still a great value signing, even if he doesn't devour innings.
"I just went out there and tried to throw the ball hard one game. I wound up throwing it harder." - Morton "Brilliant!" - Joe Joe
If "Ground Chuck" avoids a long DL stint and pitches anywhere near where he has been for the first quarter of the season, this will be looked at as a great signing. I think we still need another starter, but the way he has thrown has taken some of the pressure off of the rotation.
He's been worth 0.9 fWAR so far, which using the standard $8M/win, he's been worth his 2017 salary already. I'm with everybody else here, if he stays healthy he will be a fantastic signing and Luhnow will look like a genius for giving him 2 years.
As mentioned in the comments section of that post, his third-time-through-the-order numbers are ugly but if he can work on that he can be a crucial piece of a playoff rotation. He needs to work on getting some quick, weak contact outs. The other thing that I have in the back of my mind for both Morton and LMJ are total innings. They both have been healthy and racked up solid (but not egregious) innings and are on pace for 200IP. LMJ should hit an innings limit at some point. Morton I had decided I wouldn't have minded if they kept running him out there til the inevitable injury or his arm falls off, but he's been so good he needs to be carefully managed/saved for the playoffs. It's really too bad they don't have enough other options right now to fill in starts and give LMJ/Morton 10-day vacations. Hopefully they can work in McHugh, Paulino or even Hauschild into the rotation to take some innings off those guys.
Third time through the order does not matter for SP3 in playoffs as he will be pulled. That said, I assumed Astros would pitch him until his arm falls off as well. I'm not counting him as a playoff arm. If one does, it makes it hard to significantly upgrade him. Very tough to find a guy that goes through order twice as well as he does.
If Morton can dominate 2 times through in October, I'm fine. Get us through 5 in great shape then hand it off to the pen. Eating innings that time of year isn't nearly as important. Having said that, if we can add a top flight arm, Morton could be extremely valuable as wipeout bullpen arm. With him, Devo, and the 7,8,9 trio we currently have, that could be a pretty terrifying pen.
I would like the Astros to get a top flight arm to help out pen during regular season so they are fresh for the postseason as well as just not trusting top 3 SPs to remain healthy for postseason...or at a minimum, someone to eat innings that doesn't suck as bad as Fiers.
Thinking about playoff pitching staff management makes me giddy: Game 1: Keuchel pitches 1-6 Devenski pitches 7-9 Game 2: McCullers pitches 1-5 Hoyt pitches 6 (if needed) Harris pitches 7 Gregerson pitches 8 Giles pitches 9 Game 3: Morton pitches 1-5 Peacock pitches 6 (if needed) Feliz pitches 7 Devenski/Harris/Gregerson (whoever is fresh) pitches 8 Giles pitches 9 Fiers and Musgrove would be held in reserve for early pitcher exits and/or extra innings. Sipp would be a loogy.
Not necessarily but for now it's hard to count on him. If he comes back and is as effective has he has been over the last 2-3 years then they'd go to a 4 man rotation and it'd look like this: Game 1: Keuchel 1-6 Devenski 7-9 Game 2: McCullers 1-5 Hoyt 6 Harris 7 Gregerson 8 Giles 9 Game 3: Morton 1-5 Devenski 6-8 Giles 9 Game 4: McHugh 1-5 Feliz 6 Harris 7 Gregerson 8 Giles/Hoyt 9 With Sipp as a loogy and Peacock/Fiers for extra innings, blowouts, or starters getting knocked out early. However, ideally they trade for another ToR SP and a lefty closer and it'll be a five man rotation even in the playoffs: 1-6: Keuchel, TBD, McCullers, Morton, McHugh 7: Devenski/Hoyt 8: Harris/Gregerson 9: Giles/TBD With Peacock and Fiers (or Sipp) as extra innings guys. In this case Feliz and Musgrove would have to be sent to AAA and Peacock or Sipp would have to be DFA/outrighted.
There's zero chance the Astros will have a 5 man rotation in the playoffs. There is no reason ever to pitch your #5 guy over your ace on regular rest. Also, I find it amusing that in mid-May, we're lining up our pitching staff down to the inning for games in October. Not criticising - just think it's hilarious and says how far this team has come. Realistically though, at least 2 or 3 of the current pitchers are going to be injured/ineffective/traded by the time the playoffs come around.
