http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/managing-decisions-and-an-mlb-team/ Included interviews with three managers including Hinch. Thought this was timely as Hinch has been a topic of discussion the last couple of weeks. He's also been a topic of discussion almost every other week since he's been manager of Stros. Here's an excerpt about Hinch: Hinch mentioned a situation when Brian McCann faced Andrew Miller later in a game earlier in the series. After the game, he thought he perhaps should have pinch-hit for him. He noted how he regrets having Chris Devenski up in the bullpen when he doesn’t call upon him. Here's an excerpt about article in general: Said Lewis in an interview with Time advancing the book: “Some of the most interesting ideas were these throw-away thoughts, like Danny’s idea they played with for a while—how people making decisions aren’t actually trying to maximize their returns, but minimize regret. I see it all that time in people’s decisions.” For instance, when offering research subjects $1,000 — or — having a 50% chance to earn $2,500 depending on the result of a coin flip, most chose the certainty of $1,000. From a Kahneman and Tversky paper recounted in the book: “The greater sensitivity to negative rather than positive changes is not specific to monetary outcomes,” wrote Amos and Danny. “It reflects a general property of the human organism as a pleasure machine. For most people, the happiness involved in receiving a desirable object is smaller than the unhappiness involved in losing the same object. … Happy species endowed with infinite appreciation of pleasures and low sensitivity to pain would probably not survive the evolutionary battle.” ----
Hinch usually throws whomever is warmed. If relating money, what's the baseball equivalent of 1000 guaranteed vs 2500 fifty-ed? 4.00 ERA guaranteed vs 2.00 or 5.00 ? Theoretically, the fifty-ed option has to be better average-wise than the 4.00 since 2500/2 > 1000 There's many examples to explore among pitching, hitting, fielding., whatever. _______________ Another question, regarding real money,... "What's Your Price?" If $2500 isn't enough, what is? Personally, $2500 isn't far from my limit. Just playing odds. Would your answer be the same if this was posed multiple times? Say 100.. Odds are, you'll win 50x with an extra $500 (50x). Lazy math says, 45 wins, still wins.
I'm not sure the conclusion here fits the test. If I offered $1 million vs a 50% chance at $2.5 million, the vast majority of people would also choose the $1 million. But the reason has nothing to do with happiness of receiving vs unhappiness in losing. It's just a purely economic decision - $1MM is life-changing money. The extra $1.5MM isn't worth as much as the first $1MM - the actual real-life value is not linear, despite the numbers. It's why a Jon Singleton rationally can choose to give up a big payday in exchange for certainty of life-changing money.
Morgan was very successful as a player and "know it all" broadcaster. I'm surprised he never managed a MLB team.
I agree with this for the example and almost said something similar on Fangraphs for a one-time event . I would say managers typically make a lot of similar decisions over a season and mazimizing return usually is the best option for them even if the example isn't a good fit.
Years and years ago, he was offered the Astros job, but he wanted to also be GM. The Astros took a pass.
