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Even "Moreyball" Basic Formulas Show Chucking Is Bad

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by napalm06, Jan 20, 2020.

  1. solid

    solid Contributing Member

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    Fundamentals of basketball:
    1. Move the ball, every pass causes the defense to reset
    2. Work for the high percentage shot.
    3. Defend tenaciously, make your opponent uncomfortable.
    4. Don't get predictable, move, don't over dribble, work your way closer to the basket.
    5. A deficit in talent can be overcome with a well executed system.
     
    napalm06 likes this.
  2. dmoneybangbang

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    Morey works for the owner and does what the owner tells him.
     
  3. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Which means, just by the law of averages, there has been stretches before that where have had far and away the best offense in the league.

    Trying to find a mythical offensive system that never falters is a fools errand.
     
    francis 4 prez likes this.
  4. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    obviously. however the point still remains. playing smarter and being able to realize on certain nights a guy putting up 20 3s a game when something else is working is something you just roll with
     
  5. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs
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    That's because Harden is trying to keep the deceptiveness behind his floater / Capela lob options.

    Now every time he attacks the rim he's stuck between attacking with one or the other, or getting caught in mid-air for an off balanced layup attempt.

    Nothing has been aggressive with his drives, it's the start and stop slow paced moves that even the likes of Luguentz Dort have been able to defend.

    Everything revolves around Harden so if he doesn't get this sh** together we are f***ed.
     
    #85 FLASH21, Jan 22, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
    bloodwings19 likes this.
  6. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    That doesn't make sense.

    The old adage is true, you keep shooting.

    Its a logical fallacy to assume the next shot is a miss because the last X were misses.

    This wasn't some defensive scheme making an otherwise "good shot" into a bad one, it was just missing shots we normally make at a good rate.
     
  7. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    it makes plenty of sense. there comes a certain point where you don't keep shooting. you're sitting there putting up multiple airballs and the shots aren't even close. yet there's free reign to the rim without their stating center the entire night. there's a such thing as adjusting to something else. i never understood the logic of guys getting worked up over that. that's part of the game
     
  8. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    No, not really.

    You always take the best shot, that's what playing smart is.

    You are trying to play the hindsight game.

    Missing 20 in a row has bearing on possibly making the next 20 in a row.
     
  9. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    no i'm not playing it. its just being able to realize something isn't working. if you prefer someone just to continue to chuck while in a obvious slump, that's you. I certainly don't prefer it.
     
  10. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    It all depends on the chucker.

    Melo...Westbrook.... STOP SHOOTING!!!

    Durant....Harden.... I will take my chances.
     
  11. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    meh not me.

    when's the last time durant has chucked that many 3's. certainly not to this spam level.
     
  12. bloodwings19

    bloodwings19 Member

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    If the Rockets are going down, it starts from the top and that is Harden. He is the ship captain, or the bus driver, we are just riding along like D'Antoni, the bus monitor and Morey, except Morey is the bus supervisor who can fire the bus driver and the bus monitor.
     
  13. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    Durant never taking that many 3 point shots has ZERO to do with the point.

    Some players have earned the right to keep shooting. Prolific, high efficiency scorers with years of track record.

    Others haven’t.

    I understand playing the hindsight game, but Harden has shot thousands and thousands of 3s in his career and hits them at a pretty good rate. Hell these past few years he has hit heavily contested step back 3s at a great rate. He’s proven to be capable.
     
  14. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    it has everything to do with it. again being able to adjust and realize something isn't working on certain nights at a certain point is just smart basketball. whether yall enjoy guys continuing to chuck over something else that is working is up to yall. You seem to like it. I don't
     
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  15. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    About 25 times Durant has forced the 3 even when it wasn't working

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    looks pretty smiliar to this level

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    At work, can't see whatever you posted. You will have to describe it.

    Also FWIW, Harden has 8 of the top 14.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    it's just a pic logging the total number of 3s each game he's taken in this slump
     
  19. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Slumps happen
     
  20. SemisolidSnake

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    Bingo. You have to win individual games by whatever means necessary. Averaged over 82 regular season games against opponents of all levels, The System might consistently get you into the top half of the playoff picture. With slightly better shooters, it might get you a top 3 seed; with slightly worse shooters, it might get you a 6-8 seed. Of course, if you take the best player in the NBA out of the picture, who knows how it actually fares?

    Regardless, it consistently fails the Rockets in the playoffs where every game matters and where it's necessary to make adjustments in games. Sometimes, the shots just aren't falling in a game. Sometimes you just need to keep adding ANY points, and it makes sense to go for the less risky 2 points rather than take a big risk of zero points on a three attempt. Infamous Game 7 against the Warriors was the most extreme example. Yes, the refs were working against us hard. Yes, Paul was out, although I no longer buy into "we were just a hammy away from a championship." But the shots just would not fall that night, and the team had no other options in their arsenal. Yes, they tried to let James drive for a bit, and the refs killed that, but that was a couple minutes out of a 48 minute game where they shot themselves to death right until the end.

    The other thing the Rockets do that compounds this problem is trying to value time more than points at the end of games. I think this is actually James' biggest weakness. No matter how much time you spend in a possession, you have to get some points out of it. You can't run 24 seconds, chuck a three, and still be content that you burned clock if it doesn't go in. Playing the outlast game with a dwindling lead has bitten them innumerable times over the years.

    Individual wins matter. Averaged math doesn't. Threes are hard. You have to keep scoring. You need more options than just MORE THREES.
     
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