Even "Moreyball" Basic Formulas Show Chucking Is Bad

Reeko your last few posts have been some of the best ever on this board. You are spot on. It is not all Tillman....it is 99% Morey and MDA. Morey has never got the players necessary for his system, which is not Rivers, Tucker, House, etc.

 

I think the problem is implementing this extremely efficient offense without the personnel. We bought regular gasoline to fly a jet plane and we’re wondering why we’re still on the ground. The role players we depend on to hit 3’s to keep defenders honest simply haven’t performed on a consistent basis. Morey did his usual buy low on free agents and unlike previous seasons, none have panned out other than maybe Mclemore. House has not reached expectations. Gerald Green got hurt. The rest of the bench has given us no value. Too top heavy.

 

Thanks. Morey’s M.O. all these years has been to bring in guys who shot a decent percentage on a low volume of spot up threes with their previous teams, and then they come here, their volume is increased to career high levels, but their percentages are mediocre at best

he can never manage to bring in a deadeye, knockdown shooter

 

@jordnnnn

Thoughts?

 

It’s not just that these guys aren’t knockdown shooters. The bigger thing, I think, is that these high volumes are inherently tiring over the long haul. I think this is related to how Harden gets fatigued every playoffs, and may be the cause of his current shooting woes.

I listened to Steve Nash on Bill Simmons’s Book of Basketball 2.0 podcast, and he had some really interesting comments about how tired he was by the playoffs every year, and how he felt that impacted his performance.

 

Going 1-17 isn’t going to lead to many wins.

Luckily for us we don’t shoot 20% from 3 as a team and James Harden is a career +.600 TS% player and not the low 50s he’s been for 8ish games.

 

Morley for all his greatness, has tried to make players adapt to the three point shot system. It’s a flawed philosophy as not every team will have a reddick or a klay Thompson. You need to adapt your system to the players you have. If your players are good at cutting and slashing then run an offense that does just that. Stop trying to make non three point shooters become spot up snipers. There’s a reason they’re not. Heck Popavich had to change his system to adapt to the different players he had. Money and company have refused to. Like trying to put a square peg into a circle. As explosive as this offense was, I much more enjoyed the Rick Adelman days where someone was always moving and cutting versus just standing around.

 

He shot ~40% on 2's outside of 10 ft. that year. Which is the equivalent to a 26% 3-point shot.

Hard pass.

 

Um, I'm just drooling at some of the talent on that bench, Robitussin Camby thumbing a ride to work nothwithstanding.
Think any of them might fill a need at the moment?

 

so with a team with jameer nelson at point guard and rashard lewis at power forward, it beat a 60+ win celtics team and a 66-win, super prime, 37 PER in the playoff lebron, but it lost to the 60+ win lakers so it's a bad idea?

also, the rockets championship teams were basically the original moreyball. we led the league in 3 point attempts by a wide margin both seasons. rudy T would be shooting up 45 threes a game if he were coaching now.

 

Offensive rating
1. Dallas
2. Houston
3. Milwaukee

3 point attempt rate
1. Houston
2. Dallas
4. Milwaukee

i will let others draw conclusions about whether firing up 3's is a bad idea.

 

virtually every team in the league is shooting more and more 3's. moreyball isn't going anywhere.

 

Everyone's always just assuming Fertitta is at fault and giving Morey a free pass. It might be true, but we don't know that because it's all based on conjecture. Morey must love being Mr. Teflon. You can say a piece of conjecture 1,000 times, but that doesn't make it any more true. It's still just conjecture.

 

well the offensive rating since the beginning of Jan. 108.9. good for #19 in the league. I wonder if that's good or bad.

 

it's not an assumption. there's plenty of references if you took the time to actually do some research before spilling own your own "conjecture"

 

you got me. teams should always ignore years of data and change their entire offense any time they have a bad 3 week stretch that coincides with their superstar playing like crap for that same stretch.

 

that dramatic nah? don't see anything wrong with being smarter though and knowing when enough is enough. that shouldn't be some huge issue to anyone tbh. something isn't quit working on a particular night, go to something else that is. okc being bbq chicken all night with adams out. nah lets just spam 20 3s over and over. air balling multiple times. and especially being in a slump, that's just dumb basketball

 

Since Harden arrived in Houston in 12/13 we have the best offensive rating, the 2nd best effective field goal percentage and 3rd most wins of all teams during that span.

http://bkref.com/tiny/eCEo3

 

Whats the equivalent of shooting 1-17 from 3

 

That's very results oriented, and that's also a very small sample size. I'm not saying I loved him taking all of those shots, but it's certainly a better option than suddenly switching to inefficient mid rangers. He shoots like 1,000+ 3 pointers a season at 36%, we're going to panic after he has a bad run after 10-12 shots?

Trends are your friend...until they're not. Human beings love to look for patterns, ie. OMG he's missed 10 in a row, it's not his night! Sure it's not his night, until he hits a couple in a row and then everyone forgets the first 2-3 quarters of play. And I'm sure we can find multiple games where he started hitting his 3's then all was good...it's only when there is once instance of a very unlikely sustained bad run, then everyone wants to jump ship for some reason.