Who would lottery clubs take No. 1? We've had the LeBron Draft. The Blake Griffin Draft. The Anthony Davis Draft. This year, well ... it's the Player To Be Named Later Draft. Typically, by February, one or two players have emerged as the consensus front-runner(s) for the top pick in the NBA draft. When it hasn't been a lone player like LeBron, Griffin or Davis, it's been a debate between two elite players like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant or Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley. This year, not only is there no consensus No. 1, but most NBA GMs are struggling to come up with anyone who deserves to be the top pick in the draft. "As you look at the guys atop your Big Board," one veteran GM said, "I'm struck with how depleted the talent pool is this year at the top. This is a pretty good draft if you want to talk depth. I just don't see a player who turns our franchise around at the top. I could be wrong. I didn't see Kyrie Irving doing what he's doing for the Cavs right now. But this year is especially troubling." GMs have struggled with this dilemma before. In 2006 there was no clear No. 1 pick, either. Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay and Tyrus Thomas were all mentioned as potential No. 1 picks. Of those four players, only Aldridge has made an All-Star team. Two lower picks, No. 6 Brandon Roy and No. 21 Rajon Rondo ended up on All-Star teams first. GMs also struggled in 2001, when high school players like Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry competed to be the No. 1 pick. Of the top five players drafted that year, only Chandler and Pau Gasol, who was never seriously considered for the No. 1 pick, made an All-Star team. The 1998 draft (in which Michael Olowokandi went No. 1 overall) and the 1995 draft (Joe Smith went first) suffered from a similar malady. So you might understand why GMs on bad teams like the Bobcats, Magic and Suns are wringing their hands right now. Each team desperately needs a savior, and by the looks of things, a basketball messiah won't be shaking David Stern's hand on draft night. Nevertheless, someone has to pick No. 1. And we know there's real talent here. It's just not a slam dunk. This year, there is an unusually large group of contenders. In speaking with GMs over the course of the past few months, it looks like a total of six players are in serious consideration for the No.1 pick -- Kansas' Ben McLemore, Kentucky's Nerlens Noel, Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart, UNLV's Anthony Bennett, Indiana's Victor Oladipo and Maryland's Alex Len. The six players couldn't be more different. McLemore is an athletic, sweet shooting 2-guard. Noel is a long, crazy athletic shot-blocker. Smart is a powerful point guard. Bennett is an explosive scoring forward. Oladipo is a high-motor, lockdown defender. Len is a traditional back-to-the-basket center. Of those six, three of them -- McLemore, Noel and Smart -- are the heavy favorites to go No. 1 in the draft. Two other players, Indiana's Cody Zeller and UCLA's Shabazz Muhammad, were mentioned earlier in the season as potential No. 1 picks but have recently slid out of consideration. With the debut of our annual Lottery Mock Draft, Insider spoke to scouts or executives from almost every team projected to be in the draft lottery in an effort to determine their individual draft order for the lottery generator. When there is no clear No. 1 pick, teams tend to focus on team needs instead of overall talent. So, as we expected, teams had various answers to the question: Who will go No. 1? Charlotte Bobcats Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Ben McLemore The Bobcats need help just about everywhere. They have the second-worst offensive rate and defensive rate in the league and have the lowest effective field goal percentage in the NBA. But with young players like Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist looking like keepers, and with a number of young projects, including Bismack Biyombo, on the front line, look for the Bobcats to try to add some shooting and athleticism to their backcourt. McLemore is in a bit of a slump, but when he gets it going he's got a little Ray Allen in him. Orlando Magic Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Marcus Smart The Magic could also use help everywhere on the floor, but with young players in place at center (Nikola Vucevic), power forward (Andrew Nicholson) and small forward (Moe Harkless and Tobias Harris) look for the team to try to juice up the backcourt. While McLemore might be an option to replace Arron Afflalo, the money is on Smart. The Magic need a leader and a potential star, and while Smart's numbers won't always wow you, his leadership on the court and his power taking the ball to the basket could make him an All-Star someday. Washington Wizards Odds of winning the lottery: 13.8 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Nerlens Noel The Wizards have their backcourt of the future with John Wall and Bradley Beal. Now they need some young bigs to swat shots and run the floor with them. While Noel's ACL injury has put a small damper on his stock, NBA GMs aren't worried that it will affect his performance in the long term. He could be a perfect long-term fit next to Wall and Beal and give the Wizards a young big three to build around for the next decade. Phoenix Suns Odds of winning the lottery: 9.6 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Ben McLemore The Suns are one of the most messed up teams in the NBA. They don't really have anyone on their roster to build around. Goran Dragic and Marcin Gortat are their best players, but are not terrific building blocks for the future. Their other young players, including Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris and Kendall Marshall, are major works in progress. So ... it's really wide open in Phoenix. While the Suns could certainly go in a variety of ways, one source says that McLemore is currently atop their board. Sacramento Kings Odds of winning the lottery: 9.6 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Marcus Smart The Kings are loaded with young talent. What they need are high-character winners who bring leadership to the table. Smart looks like the perfect fit there. He's an upgrade over everyone else at the position and brings the sort of work ethic and team-first mentality to Sacramento that everyone else desperately needs. New Orleans Hornets Odds of winning the lottery: 9.6 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Marcus Smart The Hornets won the draft lottery last year and brought home a potential franchise-changing prize in Anthony Davis. If they win it again this year, look for them to try to connect him with a point guard who can deliver the ball to him in the right places and defend both spots in the backcourt. Greivis Vasquez has been good, but he doesn't have the two-way potential of Smart. Cleveland Cavaliers Odds of winning the lottery: 3.6 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Nerlens Noel With the Cavs' backcourt set with Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, look for them to try to fill a need in their frontcourt. While Shabazz Muhammad and Georgetown's Otto Porter are likely selections if the team drafts in its current spot, the Cavs might swing for the fences with Noel, or possibly Len, if they land the No. 1 pick. Paired in the frontcourt with a young Tristan Thompson, the Cavs could be a LeBron James defection away from dominating the league. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds of winning the lottery: 3.5 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Ben McLemore The Wolves have been looking for a shooter to pair with Ricky Rubio in the backcourt. While rookie Alexey Shved has been good for them, he doesn't have McLemore's athletic ability or jump shot. Noel and Oladipo are options here, but this one looks like a no-brainer for McLemore. Detroit Pistons Odds of winning the lottery: 1.7 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Ben McLemore Detroit is feeling good about its young frontcourt of Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond and is still high on the long-term potential of Brandon Knight. McLemore or Oladipo will make a tough choice for them. McLemore is a better shooter and a smoother scorer, while Oladipo brings that nastiness and defensive intensity that the Pistons once dominated the league with. Toronto Raptors Odds of winning the lottery: 1.1 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Marcus Smart Kyle Lowry has been good for Toronto, but Smart has a lot more long-term upside. He packs the same power and intensity that Lowry brings but does it in a bigger package with more offensive game. Philadelphia 76ers Odds of winning the lottery: 0.8 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Nerlens Noel Doug Collins is still smarting over his decision to pass on Derrick Favors and take Evan Turner with the second pick in the 2010 NBA draft. Don't expect him to make the same mistake twice. The Sixers really want an elite athlete in the frontcourt, and Noel could be a Marcus Camby for them. Dallas Mavericks Odds of winning the lottery: 0.7 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Nerlens Noel Dallas has been looking for a permanent big man in the middle for a while now. Tyson Chandler thrived there, but got too expensive to keep long term. If the Mavs can land Noel, they have the first piece around which to rebuild. Portland Trail Blazers Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Ben McLemore Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge and, to a lesser extent, Nicolas Batum are the long-term fixtures in Portland. I'd put Noel here, but after the Blazers' last experience with a young injured big man, I'm not sure they'd have the stomach for Noel right now. While Wesley Matthews has been solid for Portland, McLemore offers more size and athleticism with a similar shooting touch. Phoenix Suns (via Lakers) Odds of winning the lottery: 0.5 percent Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Ben McLemore See Suns description above.
Nice read. I like Noel and Len. Although initial thought of him being #1 maybe too high, Oladipo is my darkhorse #1 pick.
What an incredibly weak draft, although I guess for some teams (Bobcats, Magic, Kings) it's for the best, since they'll be bad enough to be back in the lottery next year. For others, like the Suns or T-Wolves, the lack of talent is really going to hurt. My guess is that Orlando will win the lottery and take Smart. I'm wondering though, if some teams might be more open to trading the pick if they're not crazy about anyone.
For those who haven't been able to keep up with college basketball like myself, ESPN has uploaded some 1:00-1:30 highlight videos of some of the top players. Marcus Smart, Nerlens Noel & Ben McLemore: Spoiler <script src="http://player.espn.com/player.js?&playerBrandingId=4ef8000cbaf34c1687a7d9a26fe0e89e&pcode=1kNG061cgaoolOncv54OAO1ceO-I&width=576&height=324&externalId=espn:9015253&thruParam_espn-ui[autoPlay]=false&thruParam_espn-ui[playRelatedExternally]=true"></script> <script src="http://player.espn.com/player.js?&playerBrandingId=4ef8000cbaf34c1687a7d9a26fe0e89e&pcode=1kNG061cgaoolOncv54OAO1ceO-I&width=576&height=324&externalId=espn:9015361&thruParam_espn-ui[autoPlay]=false&thruParam_espn-ui[playRelatedExternally]=true"></script> <script src="http://player.espn.com/player.js?&playerBrandingId=4ef8000cbaf34c1687a7d9a26fe0e89e&pcode=1kNG061cgaoolOncv54OAO1ceO-I&width=576&height=324&externalId=espn:9015247&thruParam_espn-ui[autoPlay]=false&thruParam_espn-ui[playRelatedExternally]=true"></script> Anthony Bennett & Victor Oladipo Spoiler <script src="http://player.espn.com/player.js?&playerBrandingId=4ef8000cbaf34c1687a7d9a26fe0e89e&pcode=1kNG061cgaoolOncv54OAO1ceO-I&width=576&height=324&externalId=espn:9015266&thruParam_espn-ui[autoPlay]=false&thruParam_espn-ui[playRelatedExternally]=true"></script> <script src="http://player.espn.com/player.js?&playerBrandingId=4ef8000cbaf34c1687a7d9a26fe0e89e&pcode=1kNG061cgaoolOncv54OAO1ceO-I&width=576&height=324&externalId=espn:9015274&thruParam_espn-ui[autoPlay]=false&thruParam_espn-ui[playRelatedExternally]=true"></script>
^Oladipo looks like DWade there. The kid looks like an improved left-handed dribbling ability away from being a superstar.
Looks like the Suns are rooting for us to keep the Fakers out, they get 2 lottery picks out of the deal. but man this draft is incredibly weak
I would easily take Marcus Smart with the first pick. I have been singing praises about him since his high school days, but the main reason I would pick him over McLemore is his mentality. I am not sure you can turn a passive player into a superstar (McLemore). Smart already has a winner mentality and has come into OSU and been their leader/clutch player despite having two older candidates that could have filled the role. Once Smart becomes a better shooter he will be a phenom.
I'm pretty intrigued on this draft.. I think Shabazz is going to get drafted higher than at least two of these prospects because teams always get dazzled (or shabazzled couldn't resist) by college scorers. Noels will be interesting, he could either be a Chandleresque stopper down the line, or just another injury plagued big man. I almost would take Lens or Zeller in a deep draft for the safety of less injury
Noel reminds me a little of Kevin Garnett when he came into the league. If he can develop a solid post game and stay healthy he's a guy you can build around for a decade. You look at guy's like Duncan , Hakeem , and Garnett and its difficult not to take the best big in the draft pool.
Oladipo's D would be a great addition to our roster. Doubt, but hope, DM can find a way to make that happen. IMHO, Oladipo is more valuable than any free agent on the market this coming summer.
So has Shabazz moved out of favor? I really pay zero attention to college bball, but this year seems like it is really lackluster as far as talent goes.