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[ESPN]Rookie Rankings: Clear Favorites in Both Leagues

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by juicystream, Aug 12, 2015.

  1. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    [rquoter]With only about a third of the season remaining, Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa and Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant not only have the most long-term potential among MLB rookies, they also have commanding leads to win Rookie of the Year honors in their respective leagues.

    Here is a glance at the Rookie of the Year races in both leagues, based on performance this season. I also asked five scouts to give me their overall long-term grade of each player and posted the average below. Here's what each grade equates to:

    50 = average major league player
    55 = above-average major league player
    60 = future All-Star-caliber player
    65 = future All-Star/Silver Slugger/Gold Glove/Cy Young/relief award candidate
    70 = perennial All-Star
    75/80 = Hall of Fame-caliber

    American League

    1. Carlos Correa, SS
    Houston Astros
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: .282/.343/.546, 14 HR, 37 RBIs, 9 SB, 2.8 WAR

    Correa has all but clinched the American League Rookie of the Year award despite not being promoted to the major leagues until June 7. Since that time, he has dominated on both sides of the ball and is already considered the best all-around shortstop in the sport.

    Future scouting grade: 75

    2. Roberto Osuna, RHP
    Toronto Blue Jays
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats:11 saves (in 12 opportunities), 2.09 ERA 0.89 WHIP, 1.7 WAR

    The Blue Jays needed a closer if they were going to contend for an AL East title, and Osuna has stepped up and gotten the job done with his mid- to upper-90s fastball and solid changeup/slider combination.

    Future scouting grade: 55

    3. Andrew Heaney, LHP
    Los Angeles Angels
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: 5-1 record, 2.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 1.4 WAR

    Heaney came to the Angels in one of former GM Jerry DiPoto's shrewd trades; he traded one year of Howie Kendrick for six years of control of Heaney. It took Heaney some time to improve his secondary pitches and ability to hold runners on base, as well as get accustomed to the major league culture, but you can check all the boxes now because he has arrived.

    Future scouting grade: 60

    4. Lance McCullers, RHP
    Houston Astros
    Trending: down

    Relevant stats: 5-4 record, 3.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 79 K's (in 76-plus IP), 1.4 WAR

    McCullers was sent back to the minors last week to work on some things and so the Astros can monitor his innings in preparation for what they hope is a postseason run in October. But he has already shown his ability to pound the strike zone with his mid-90s fastball and strike out hitters with his deadly curve. He has the stuff and makeup to win postseason games. Give the Astros credit for being aware of his innings and taking the pre-emptive measure to develop him properly.

    Future scouting grade: 65

    5. Mike Montgomery, LHP
    Seattle Mariners
    Trending: down

    Relevant stats: 4-4 record, 3.25 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 1.6 WAR

    Montgomery was one of the Royals' top pitching prospects before being dealt to the Rays in the James Shields trade. After not blossoming there, he finally got his chance with the Mariners and is taking advantage of it. His command and control have improved enough to become a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation arm.

    Future scouting grade: 55

    6. Aaron Sanchez, RHP
    Toronto Blue Jays
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: 6-4 record, 3.25 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 1.5 WAR

    Sanchez has both started and relieved for the Blue Jays; most evaluators believe he'll end up being an important part of the team's rotation in the future. In the meantime, his best role on the win-now Jays is in the bullpen, and he'll be an important setup man for them down the stretch.

    Future scouting grade: 55

    7. Devon Travis, 2B
    Toronto Blue Jays
    Trending: holding steady

    Relevant stats: .304/.361/.498, 18 2B, 8 HR, 2.5 WAR

    Travis has battled shoulder issues this season; if he hadn't, he'd probably be near the top of the list. When healthy, he has shown that he can flat-out rake, with good power for a second baseman. He also has been much better defensively than expected.

    Future scouting grade: 55

    8. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
    Boston Red Sox
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: 6-4 record, 4.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 1.4 WAR

    The Red Sox's acquisition of Rodriguez was arguably the best trade among the "sellers" last season; they traded two months of control of Andrew Miller for six years of control of this young lefty. Rodriguez profiles as a top-of-the-rotation starter with a high-90s fastball, above-average changeup and developing slider. He has a good angle and delivery, and the Red Sox will be counting on him for years to come as a potential future ace.

    Future scouting grade: 65

    9. Billy Burns, OF
    Oakland Athletics
    Trending: down

    Relevant stats: .297/.339/.376, 46 runs, 23 SB, 1.4 WAR

    The speedy Burns has been solid in the outfield and on the basepaths, and has given the A's more offense than even they could have expected. If his bat continues to improve, he could be the team's leadoff hitter for years to come and the replacement for Coco Crisp.

    Future scouting grade: 50

    10. Carson Smith, RHP
    Seattle Mariners
    Trending: down

    Relevant stats: 12 saves (14 opportunities), 2.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 1.3 WAR

    Smith has really improved the Mariners' bullpen this year. He throws his slider almost as often as his fastball, with positive results.

    Future scouting grade: 50

    National League

    1. Kris Bryant, 3B
    Chicago Cubs
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: .249/.361/.442, 15 HR, 65 RBIs, 12 SB, 3.2 WAR

    Bryant was the spring training favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year, and he has not disappointed. He's getting on base, hitting for power, playing solid defense and has come up with some big hits. He has struck out a lot -- he's second in the NL in K's, behind only the player who's next on this list -- but his overall production clearly makes up for it.

    Future scouting grade: 70

    2. Joc Pederson, CF
    Los Angeles Dodgers
    Trending: down

    Relevant stats: .220/.354/.442, 18 2B, 21 HR, 43 RBIs, 2.3 WAR

    Pederson was neck and neck with Bryant in the ROY race as recently as the All-Star Game -- both made it onto the NL team -- and he put on a tremendous show in the Home Run Derby before falling to the Reds' Todd Frazier in the finals. Since then, however, Pederson has been a huge disappointment, hitting just .178 with one home run since then. He's quickly falling out of the race.

    Future scouting grade: 60

    3. Randal Grichuk, OF
    St. Louis Cardinals
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: .282/.328/.560, 20 2B, 14 HR, 43 RBIs, 3.0 WAR

    Grichuk has quietly become a factor in the Rookie of the Year race. In fact, his WAR is nearly as good as Bryant's (3.2). His terrific defensive tools combined with his speed and power are making him a rising star in St. Louis. If any position player could overtake Bryant in the NL ROY race, it'd likely be this guy, given the way he's hitting now.

    Future scouting grade: 60

    4. Taylor Jungmann, RHP
    Milwaukee Brewers
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: 6-3 record, 2.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 WAR

    Jungmann was the Brewers' first-round selection and the 12th player taken overall in the 2011 draft. He was slow to develop despite his solid repertoire, but has finally arrived and is making a statement with his arm. His low-90s fastball, curveball and changeup combo keeps hitters off-balance, and he's showing an ability to get early-count outs.

    Future scouting grade: 55

    5. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
    New York Mets
    Trending: up at home/down on the road

    Relevant stats: 6-6 record, 3.01 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 106 K's (in 98-plus IP), 1.7 WAR

    Syndergaard has been the best rookie pitcher in the NL … in home games. On the road, it has been a different story. His numbers at Citi Field are sparkling (6-1 record, 1.57 ERA in eight starts), but he's 0-5 with a 5.01 ERA away from his cozy home confines. But he'll figure things out soon enough. That high-90s fastball and devastating curveball, with a much more consistent delivery and release point -- the Mets deserve a lot of credit for improving those facets -- will eventually improve his performance on the road.

    Future scouting grade: 70

    6. Matt Duffy, 3B
    San Francisco Giants
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: .304/.341/.460, 20 2B, 9 HR, 51 RBIs, 5 SB, 3.7 WAR

    Duffy has clearly outperformed former Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval's performance with the Red Sox. Just sayin'. Duffy has been a solid player both offensively and defensively, and might just be team's long-term answer at third base.

    Future scouting grade: 50

    7. Maikel Franco, 3B
    Philadelphia Phillies
    Trending: down

    Relevant stats: .277/.340/.490, 22 2B, 13 HR, 48 RBIs, 1.5 WAR

    Franco came into the league with a bang, hitting .352 and eight home runs in June. However, once opposing teams saw what he could do, they started pitching to him differently; he hasn't been nearly as effective in the past month. He's still a solid middle-of-the-order bat the Phillies can build around.

    Future scouting grade: 55

    8. Chris Heston, RHP
    San Francisco Giants
    Trending: down

    Relevant stats: 11-6 record, 3.48 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.3 WAR

    Heston was the Giants' 12th-round selection in the June 2009 draft, and it has taken him six years to blossom into a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. He has given up three earned runs or fewer in 16 of his 22 starts this season and already has a no-hitter under his belt. He has four solid pitches that he mixes well thanks to his ability to know how to pitch and the great game-calling of catcher Buster Posey.

    Future scouting grade: 55

    9. Kyle Schwarber, C/LF
    Chicago Cubs
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: .326/.418/.579, 6 HR, 21 RBIs (in 29 games), 1.4 WAR

    I know what you're thinking: How can a guy who has played only 29 major league games be on this list? I'm sorry, but I love the bat and power too much to leave him out of the race.

    Future scouting grade: 60

    10. Jung Ho Kang, IF
    Pittsburgh Pirates
    Trending: up

    Relevant stats: .293/.367/.454, 18 2B, 9 HR, 40 RBIs, 3.6 WAR

    Kang has developed into a steady player for the Pirates while playing three different positions (second base, third base and shortstop). Long-term, third base likely will be his best position; he doesn't have the range for short and doesn't like playing second. His power is legitimate, and he's a much better hitter than most people expected.

    Future scouting grade: 55[/rquoter]

    http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/insider/post?id=11278
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Can't help but love Correa getting a HOF-level grade and McCullers getting a Cy Young-level grade.

    This is Berkman & Oswalt, if Berkman was also a gold glove SS.
     
  3. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run
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    yep, this is great. In a year that has been noted as one of the best prospect-years (in terms of high-level prospect callups and performance) of all time, the future ranks on this list are

    1. Correa
    2. Bryant/Syndergaard
    3. McCullers/E.Rodriguez
     
  4. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    What the Blue Jays would do to have Syndergaard back or the Orioles to get Rodriguez back.
     
  5. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Duffy and Kang might have a slight beef with their ranking.
     
  6. tomato

    tomato Member

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    From Bryant's reputation, I did not expect him to have a higher OBP and lower slug than Correa.
     
  7. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    No way Bryant's WAR should be higher than Carlos'... ditto Duffy and Kang.

    Kris plays a slugging position, yet has worse slugging.

    It's also doubtful he's equal defensively, much less better.


    Great to see a couple of Stros on the list.
     
  8. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    No question that Bryant & Pederson are getting benefit as assumed future stars.

    WAR is cumulative, and Correa has played nearly half the games everyone else has.
     
  9. Buck Turgidson

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    It's almost like people don't take the time to learn what things mean before they complain about them.
     
  10. MykTek

    MykTek Member

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    it's amazing that a guy who is hitting .249 is leading the NL ROY race...
    is it me or the stats ppl have created WAR and essentially batting avg isn't important anymore?
     
  11. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    WAR is a wonderful catch all stat, even if it is imperfect. If people only cared about WAR, Mike Trout would be the 3 time league MVP.

    Batting Average isn't as important as people thought it was. Bryant's average isn't that impressive, but he gets on base and also hits for decent power.
     
  12. Frank Drebin

    Frank Drebin Member

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    No love for Preston Tucker? He's had a pretty solid rookie campaign, but not quite on the level.

    And what happened to Byron Buxton? He use to always be rated above Correa and now nobody talks about him.
     
  13. sealclubber1016

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    People realized a single has minimal value over a walk. If you can post a good OBP and a good slugging%, people really don't care what batting average you have getting to those numbers.

    Aside from Altuve, who success is largely dependent on average, I honestly have no clue what our players batting averages are. IMO, it's a secondary stat when evaluating performance.
     
  14. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    Can anyone prorate Correa's stats to the same amount of time as the other rookies.

    Based on the full year what his war would be assuming he is this player.
     
  15. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    IIRC Correa has played 48 games and the the Astros have played ~110 games. As a rough estimate you could double his WAR. Correa's project WAR would be about 5.6.
     
  16. sealclubber1016

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    If he had played the same time as Bryant and Duffy, his WAR would be a little over 5, give or take.

    Projected out to a full season, it would be between 7-8, depending on what you determine a full season to be (162 games, 650 PA, 700 PA). Typically that would make him a very strong MVP candidate.
     
  17. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    SI Awards Watch

    http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/08/20/aw...the-year-matt-duffy-carlos-correa-kris-bryant

    1. Carlos Correa, SS, Astros
    Season Stats: .286/.356/.539, 15 HR, 41 RBIs, 10 SB

    With Devon Travis back on the disabled list, Correa, who made his major league debut on June 8, has not only taken the lead in this race but is also running away with it. Delivering on every part of his No. 1 pick potential at the tender age of 20, Correa is third among all major league shortstops in home runs despite starting the season in Double A and is second in Baseball-Reference's WAR (3.2 to Brandon Crawford’s 5.9). Among major league shortstops with at least 150 plate appearances this season (he has 270), Correa leads in on-base and slugging percentage and OPS+ (144), has ten steals in a mere 12 attempts, and is an excellent fielder to boot.

    He also appears to be getting better. Correa hit .287/.309/.543 in June, his first month in the majors, then hit .306/.378/.541 in July. Note that huge leap in on-base percentage: He drew just three walks in 97 plate appearances in June, but 10 in 98 PA in July. That’s one walk every 9.8 PA in the latter month, a good rate for a 20-year-old rookie. So what has he done in August? He has walked 13 times in 75 PA, or once every 5.8 plate appearances. He has also posted an isolated slugging of .274 this month; by way of comparison, Giancarlo Stanton’s career ISO is .277.
    Correa will surely have his share of slumps and adjustments as his career progresses, but his performance to this point has been outstanding, and it may not be too early to put him on the short list of the best young players in the game alongside 23-year-old Mike Trout and 22-year-olds Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
     
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