ESPN: Rockets' next moves: CP3's free agency and another star?

The Houston Rockets finished the season one win away from the NBA Finals and now face free-agent decisions on Chris Paul and Clint Capela.

Which moves can and should they make? Is adding another star possible?



More summer focus: Click here for every team so far


The road block in free agency
There is a known fact in the NBA when it comes to the Rockets and the offseason: They always have a seat at the table, with or without cap space to attract free agents.

Like last year with Chris Paul before free agency, Houston has proven that All-Stars who want to play with James Harden can be acquired through some creativity. They had Paul opt into his contract, found trade partners in Dallas and Detroit and took advantage of the Clippers' looking to acquire worthwhile assets because of the risk of losing the soon-to-be free agent for nothing.

Now entering the offseason, the same model can be used for a player such as LeBron James, but with more obstacles.

First, let's debunk the myth that James could be signed with cap space, because he can't. Here is why it so complicated: Despite the Rockets' having $77 million in guaranteed contracts ($24 million below the cap), Houston will operate over the cap because of Paul's $35.7 million free-agent hold. The Rockets also have $21 million counting against the cap in combined holds for Capela and Trevor Ariza. Essentially, the entire roster would have to be torn down outside of Harden, Paul (on a major discount) and Capela. Then the rest of the roster around those three and James (or another max free agent) would be filled with minimum contracts and the $4.4 million room exception.


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But, like with Paul, Houston can have James opt into his $35.7 million 2018-19 salary and ask to be traded to the Rockets. Houston would send back a package of players and draft picks, James would eventually be extended six months after the trade and the Rockets would not have to gut their roster.

The plan sounds simple, but the contracts involved are tricky.

Swapping out James' $35 million salary for a package of players including Ryan Anderson($20 million) and Eric Gordon ($13 million) would leave the Cavaliers with a $220 million lottery team after factoring in their $80 million luxury tax bill. Houston doesn't have the draft assets to make such a deal worthwhile for Cleveland.

The Rockets could find a third team such as Chicago or Atlanta to take back the Anderson salary. However, keep in mind that it cost the Clippers a first-round pick to shed the Jamal Crawford contract last season, and it would likely cost Houston two first-rounders to move Anderson, since he is owed nearly $20 million more. Remove Anderson from trade discussions and Houston is back to the process of tearing down its roster to make room for James. Key players such as PJ Tucker, Gordon and Nene would be moved to Cleveland, and Houston management would be left with minimum contracts and the $5.3 million taxpayer midlevel exception to patch the holes of the roster. The Cavaliers would have a substantial tax bill but with trade pieces in Tucker, Gordon and Nene to flip to acquire future assets.

So would Houston tear apart a 65-win team for the chance to sign James? The front office has shown it's not afraid of turning over their roster if there's a better chance to win a championship out there.

The CP3 contract
Consider the Paul trade last June more of a business arrangement between the point guard and his new team.

Not only did the Rockets save $10 million this season by paying Paul the $24.3 million on the last year of his contract (compared to $34.7 million had he signed as a max free agent), but it also allowed Houston to have the non-taxpayer midlevel to sign a player such as Tucker.

For Paul, the risk of walking away from a $149 million long-term deal in 2017 could turn into a $205 million contract in July. There's no question Paul is a max player, but the length of his next deal is now a question as he approaches age 33. Can the Rockets justify paying $47 million for a player who will turn 37 in the final season of the contract?

Here is a breakdown of the five-year max:



Rudy Gobert (four years, $96 million) and Steven Adams (four years, $100 million) as a starting point. (Matsubara also negotiated the Adams contract.)

The 24-year-old Capela has been a revelation since being drafted No. 25 overall in the 2014 draft.

After appearing in only 12 games as a rookie and spending most of the season (38 games) in the G League, Capela has turned into one of the best young players in the NBA. He's a low-risk, long-term investment based on his unlimited upside.

Here is a 2017-18 statistical breakdown of Capela in comparison to Adams and Gobert:



Ariza on a $5 million contract would see the Rockets with $145 million in salary and $53 million of additional tax penalties.

The Rockets will have the $5.3 million tax midlevel exception available.

Dates to watch
Capela will receive a $4.7 million qualifying offer before June 30, making him a restricted free agent.

Restrictions
The super max extension Harden signed last July still carries a one-year trade restriction, which will be lifted on July 8. Harden also has a 15 percent trade bonus in his contract. However, because the bonus cannot exceed his max salary in 2019-20, a portion will be allocated only in 2018-19 and not future years if he were traded next year.

Signed the last week of the season, Aaron Jackson cannot be traded until July 11.

The Rockets can trade their 2019 first-round pick starting the night of the draft.

The free-agent focus
Once Paul and Capela are signed to long-term contracts, the focus will turn to Ariza, Luc Mbah a Moute and Gerald Green.

All three players will be free agents this summer and could be salary-cap casualties because of the high cost of the roster.

A starter since 2014-15, Ariza has Bird rights that allow the Rockets to exceed the salary cap to bring him back. As ESPN's Zach Lowe wrote, the wing continues to be invaluable both on and off the court.

Mbah a Moute and Green, both signed to one-year contracts, have non-Bird rights and are restricted to receiving contracts from Houston up to $2.8 million (120 percent of their 2018-19 minimum salary).

Houston could also use the $5.3 million taxpayer midlevel exception on either player.

Extension eligible candidates
Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Chinanu Onuaku are all extension-eligible.

The draft assets
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Houston picking in the 2018 draft, after including the Rockets' 2018 first-rounder in the Paul trade last June:

• No. 46 (from Heat): Justin Jackson | SF/PF | Maryland
  

Houston still has $5.1 million in cash to use the night of the draft.

The Rockets also have the rights to former second-round picks Isaiah Hartenstein, Alessandro Gentile, Marko Todorovic and Sergio Llull.

 

Someone not an injury prone please!

 

Another season of Llull not coming over.

 

Trade his a$$ for some Spanish anchovies. Them little sh*ts are delicious!

 

This sh* t is complicated but if anyone can figure it out, it's Morey. The Paul situation is a tough one though. He's clearly a player in declining health. And stuffing him on a contract could really hurt the reputation of the org with players. It's gonna be an interesting offseason.

 

low ball offers to Clint and Paul.

Sign a star.

 

So is there no chance of us getting Paul George?

 

The Hamper 5 have NOTHING for the TUCKWAGON line up
Harden - Paul - Ego - Ariza and Tucker

Because of that
I am willing to give up Clint - Anderson and either Ariza or Ego for LeBron
(Honestly I would prefer giving up Ariza. . . and I absolutely love Ariza!!)

Here is the craziest thing . . .. . . .. . I would do the same thing for Paul George
Replace Ariza with PG13 and it isn't close

Rocket River

 

Try to sign this guy, great value for his 3% and was playing for a team who is trying to tank.



12. Tyreke Evans
Unrestricted / Shooting Guard / 6-6 / Team: Memphis Grizzlies
19.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 5.2 apg

Only three players averaged at least 19.0 ppg, 5.0 rpb and 5.0 apg last season while shooting over 39 percent from three: Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and… Tyreke Evans. Will garner major interest on the secondary market.
Agent: Darren ‘Mats’ Matsubara
2017/18 Earnings: $3,290,000
Career Earnings: $63,831,924

 

Trade Gordon, Murder Ryan Anderson. Sign Paul George. Get Tyreke as your 6th man.

 

I'm fine with that. Go for UFA's that can play like Evans and Favors, if Lebron is not available. Creating cap room is the hardest part. Let's hope for some good luck.

 

If the second part of your list happens I think we could trade Gordon then get Ty and Lebronzo.

 

I loved what I saw from Chris and when we had him we led 3-2 so despite the injuries bring him back. We need a backup point to limit his minutes so he won’t be so fatigued for the playoffs

 

We need one more reliable shooter like leborn or ad

 

Oh man, that's a DaDakota Dream Team lineup!

 

Avery Bradley for the MLE anyone?

 

lol, that made me laugh out loud

 

I think he'll get more money than that, maybe by Phila, who knows though, he didn't exactly play that well after he got traded by Ainge.

 

Didn't realize we can't trade our 1st pick until that date, ugh...