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[ESPN] Prospect rankings by the numbers

Discussion in '2019 NBA Draft' started by redhotrox, Jun 12, 2013.

  1. redhotrox

    redhotrox Contributing Member

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    Looks like this is the replacement for the annual Hollinger draft rater piece:

     
  2. Firebomb525

    Firebomb525 Member

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    So he's predicting Caldwell-Pope and Larkin to be busts if picked in the lottery?

    How'd his 2012 prospect predictions look?
     
  3. Shaud

    Shaud Member

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    Shabazz 28
     
  4. NotChandlerParsons

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    Shabazz 28? No freakin way.
     
  5. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    He has my man Andre Roberson rated as a 1st rounder.
     
  6. rocketfaithful

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    Athleticism is just a part of the game. Larry Bird would have been last In the league on this scale. instead we look at his success and he is an undisputed hall of famer. to me a shooting drill is much more telling. if you can shoot you are a factor. take Gary Neal for example, the dude possesses no physical advantages yet dominated a game three in which LeBron James, Tony Parker, Manu, Duncan, and wade all participated in. "this game is and always will be, about getting buckets" (Dr. J).
     
  7. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    I agree with the shooting part, though some prospects improved shooting significantly through development.

    It's not just athleticism. To say Larry Bird is not athletic enough is similar to say Dirk/Yao is not athletic enough - all of them enjoy a few inches of height/size advantage for their position. The combination of size and athleticism is very important.
     
  8. primtim24

    primtim24 Contributing Member

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    I understand and agree with your point, however, that wasn't the good Dr. who said that, it was Bill Russell during his convo with Drew

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  9. nepopop

    nepopop Member

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    kpelton twitted that he's doing his own draft rater and publish in the draft week
     
  10. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    Good news. Wonder if Hollinger would publish his again...probably not.
     
  11. Sir Thursday

    Sir Thursday Member

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    When someone develops arcane prediction models like this, they're only really worth the time of day if they've been able to predict things accurately for past drafts. I went and had a look around and found this old article about applying his ATH system to the 2009 draft. It's always interesting to read things like this in hindsight. Here was his list of underrated prospects in that draft:

    Now, there are some players there who sunk never to be seen again (Leo Lyons, Jerel McNeal), but he definitely got quite a few things right here. DeJuan Blair was excellent in his first couple of seasons, Ty Lawson obviously turned out pretty well, and Taj Gibson and Danny Green have turned into very valuable role players on their respective teams. So it seems like it does have some predictive power (albeit it's not something that should be taken as gospel).

    (Also, I don't have Insider, but I notice he did a breakdown of the 2012 draft using these stats too...did he get things right in there?)

    ST
     
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