Lock if posted. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/p...spects-of-astros-season?ex_cid=espnapi_public Would be nice to see if that happens. Sure is nice to actually have direction in all Houston franchises currently. Big difference from 3-5 years ago where they were all middling.
I could easily see this team improving to 70-75 wins next season. 30 seems overly optimistic though. Our pen alone has been so terrible this year. If it is even slightly competent next year it would add 10 wins easy. Combine that with improvement by young players and call ups.
20+ wins seems optimistic as well. Not sure where the extra wins will come from. For the hitting, Springer should add wins. For the pitching, two solid FA adds should add wins. Don't know if that will even get 15 extra wins. Odds seem long.
Bullpen. Worst in history by WAR. You hope some of these young players improve, but that isn't a given. I think 20 win improvement is doable, though I wouldn't call it likely.
Keep in mind that Humber started multiple games for this team (replace him with one of the young guns), Pena started dozens of games (a proverbial hole in the lineup), Villar for a full season over Marwin, hopefully an improved and Ambriz-less bullpen, and it is not too much of a stretch to say that George Springer could be the best player on the team next season. To me, those seem like things that are not a lock, but very likely. Then, if you throw in the possibility of Carter performing well at home, Altuve having a consistent full season, Cosart being a sub 4 ERA pitcher for a season, then you start to think the Astros can be a decent ball club. Bottom line, it is nice to see ESPN write something about us with a positive feeling of the future.
I expected this thread to be empty. Anyways i see us winning 60-70 games next. I expect luhnow to get some bullpen help (hopefully...) and hopefully our young guys improve and i could see us having a nice jump in the win column
Its sad to know you could win 20 more games and you would still be one of the worst teams in the league.
I actually really like all of the likely position players on next years club. The ones who hit for power but not average (Carter, Dominguez) I think will take huge steps forward. Castro/Corporan Singleton/Wallace Altuve/Elmore Dominguez Villar Springer/Martinez Grossman/Barnes Hoes/Carter Not a bad group at all. I think the rotation is fine. Cosart, Oberholtzer, Peacock have been good. Lyles can bounce back and Keuchel is a decent #5 innings eater. Enough young competition to push for a spot and take away need to address in free agency. Astros have said they will spend money next year hopefully it's bringing in a closer and an arm or too. I can probably count at least 20 games that a decent bullpen would count for a win. Chapman and Cisnero's first half are the bright spots. 10-15 mil should be enough for a closer and 7th and 8th inning setup men. 70-75 wins next season seems attainable
I disagree on the lineup. That is a bad MLB lineup. One of the bottom 10 in the league. First base and the outfield are all WAY below average, and that's where you need the big bats.
In the MODERN era this 2013 Astros season is the worse. Marlins are very BAD but Astros are historic bad.
Saying that Astros will win between 70 and 75 wins and NO longer be drafting 1st pick overall yeahhhhhhh......
Lots of good stuff on this thread, so I'll add some disorganized thoughts. Considering the "prime" of an MLB hitter is usually age 27-30 years, so many of our guys feel like they could take real steps forward next year, similar to Jason Castro's progression over the last 3 years. Hoes (can he add even a little power as he matures?) Grossman (strike out less? add more power?) Dominguez (take more walks?) Altuve (take more walks?) Villar (quit being a bonehead) It's realistic to think at least 2 or 3 of those players could take real steps forward and become league average or better players. I agree that the rotation is fine, although potential FA pickups + Alex White/Rudy Owens/Kyle Weiland (remember them?) could make things interesting. Lyles, Peacock, and Cosart are all still figuring out how to be starting pitchers that can pitch deep into games, and it's possible that one or more of them finds a permanent home in the bullpen. I know that's an unpopular opinion, but it's realistic and it's not the end of the world. Lastly, Dallas Keuchel continues to show promise as a back-end of the rotation innings eater, similar to Oberholtzer. I'll be very interested to see how they handle both of those players. As deep as our farm system is, there weren't a lot of guys this year who screamed "MLB ready" besides George Springer. We're still flush with talent at the lower levels, but I think this is the list of guys who could take the step forward next year, at some point, to showing readiness for the bigs. One thing to keep in mind is that any FA acquisitions could take innings/PAs away from these guys - the front office may want to evaluate some of our own arms internally first: Nick Tropeano (struggled some this year amidst reports that his velocity would come and go. He's great at throwing strikes, though, which makes him seem like a really nice bullpen candidate in the future: limits walks, plus fastball/changeup, may not have endurance for starter's innings) Mike Foltynewicz (this one's obvious: with a little more polish, he could probably already help out our bullpen. Continued development of a third pitch gives him big time starter upside, too.) Jonathan Singleton (another obvious one. A second trip through AAA at such a young age isn't a bad things, and once he shows signs of mastering that level he'll be due for PAs in the big leagues) Asher Wojiechowski (Like Tropeano, I worry about him holding up velocity-wise over a full season. There have been some mixed reports about his fastball in the minors, starting the season in the 93-95 range and finishing lower, topping out at 91-92. I'd be very interested in seeing some Wojo out of the pen next year.) Vince Velasquez (this one's a real dark horse, but he seems primed to move quickly through the system in his second full season back from TJ surgery. Although he had some rough outings at the end of this year at A+ Lancaster, I can't imagine he'll spend much time there next season. Stuff and polish suggests a good year could be ahead for him in AA, and I won't be surprised if he makes short work of the minors and gets a cup of tea out of the 'pen late next year) Preston Tucker (another dark horse, but he's a strong bat that's had success at practically every level so far. A beginning at AA and a move up to AAA next year could see him in line to get some PAs in RF at some point for us) Max Stassi (I'll be surprised if he isn't part of our catching rotation pretty quickly next year. What does this mean for Corporan? Your guess is as good as mine. I actually thought we'd see Corporan moved at the trade deadline, and it's possible we could see him moved this offseason)
Our biggest problem this year was clearly our pitching. The Astros sport the worst ERA in MLB. If you look at who has pitched the most innings for us this year: 1. Harrell 145.2 IP. ERA of 5.93 2. Keuchel 141.0 IP. ERA of 5.17 3. Bedard 139.0 IP. ERA of 4.60 4. Lyles 138.2 IP. ERA of 5.26 5. Norris 126.0 IP. ERA of 3.93 (then a big drop off to Peacock) Harrell was fighting to be our ace coming out of spring training this year. Do we let him go? Keuchel has shown flashes, but obviously has not been consistent. Bedard is toast, as he will be blocking young talent if he stays. Lyles is still so young, and has shown flashes but then blows up consistently. Norris of course is gone. I have a hard time believing that we're going to sign a bunch of bullpen arms if they're going to be blocking innings from our young guys. Unless the bullpen FAs we sign are young, also.
The astros owe a large part of their failure this year to a historically bad bullpen. Fortunately, a bullpen is probably the easiest part of a club to improve. Just a league average bullpen would be close to a 10 win improvement. Aside from Castro I'm not sure you can expect any one else currently on the team to be an above average regular. But with Cosart, Altuve, Villar, Oberholtzler, Dominguez, Lyles, Grossman, etc, many of the regulars at least have the potential to grow into good players. The biggest thing is that basically the entire team is on the young side of the aging curve. So while you might not be able to predict specific players breaking out, by their shear numbers it is a good bet that at least some of them will take that step forward. Add in the debuts of premium prospects like springer, singleton, foltynewicz, and appel and I could see the team pushing .500 if things break right.
Harrell is a tough choice. He was excellent last year, but has really crapped the bed these last four months. It's tough to cut bait because he costs the minimum and has already shown that he could be an above-average starter. I would be in favor of giving him one last shot as the number 5 man next year, that is, unless his personality is so toxic that it affects the clubhouse. Keuchel seems like the perfect #6 starter/long reliever and can be kept at the end of the bullpen or shuffled through AAA. He's done an admirable job this year because they really didn't have any other options, but on a better team he's depth and long relief. Who would a bullpen signee be blocking? Martinez? De Leon? I think you could sign a Veras or two and still have room on your 12-13 man staff to fit in a Wojo or Tropeano if they need to move to the pen.
Question is when do the Astros really unleash the FA dollars? Is it this year when Springer is up? Or next with Singleton, Folty, and Appel? Or after that when DDJ, Correa, Velasquez, etc? Will be interesting to see.
I would assume at least a couple seasons away, so we can see which prospects have success at the Major League level before spending money on those positions.
