Not a big fan of the article. Given enough sample size, players regress to the mean. If a player isn't regressing to the mean, the mean people expect a player to regress to is not the actual mean. It is highly likely that Altuve's production last year is above the mean of his true talent level. Projections will have a tough time with Altuve because he is an outlier making it difficult to estimate what his true mean is. I really hope Altuve has taken a big step forward and is the man going forward.
Joe Mauer never has, neither did Ichiro, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Miguel Cabrera, Derek Jeter. There are quite a few players who maintained a BABIP up around .350 during their primes. The BABIP stat is a good blanket number, because it does apply to most people. But history has proven that hitting isn't simply luck, some guys have a superior ability to hit the ball into good locations. Just because there are outliers, the mean doesn't necessarily change. Is Altuve that level of hitter, I don't know. But there is no guarantee that he has to significantly regress.
The article completely supports your opinion and is totally complimentary of LIttle Tuna, so what's not to like?
BABIP is a skill which means each player has a BABIP mean. Given enough at bats, Altuve will regress to his BABIP mean whether it is .330, .350, or even if it regresses up to .380. The only way Altuve doesn't regress to the mean is if his BABIP has already stabilized to his mean. When people don't regress to the mean, they are actually regressing to the mean.....just that the mean was estimated incorrectly by a projection. As more data comes in, the estimation of the mean should get more accurate. There is no guarantee Altuve has to regress significantly. There is a guarantee that he will regress towards his true talent level given enough of a sample size. Whether that regression is negative or positive, I don't know. I am guessing it will be negative. By how much, it is tough to say as Altuve is in the outlier area.
Its use of the word mean. Everyone regresses to the mean. Just because Tony Gwynn batted .347 doesn't mean he didn't regress to the mean. His mean was just awesome. We'll see what Altuve's mean is in the future. Right now we are only guessing. If we guess wrong, it means his mean is more awesome than we thought and not that he outperformed the mean. League mean and historical context can be used by projections to estimate mean for a particular player. Usually, estimated mean and mean can be used interchangeably because usually they are close. When they aren't close, estimated mean can't be used to show a player outperformed his mean.
The only worry I have of Altuve is that his value is so intricately tied to his speed. His high BABIP is tied to his ability to beat out ground balls. His steals, obviously, also tied to his speed. He has some power but not enough to scare pitchers. His defense, at least if you go by metrics, is terrible. I don't worry about regression so much as I hope he can stay healthy.
If the kid "regresses" to a .310ish hitter that gets on base, hits a few doubles, steals a few bases, plays tolerable defense, and continues to have a financially sound contract.....then he's a valuable player on a team. Who gives a **** what his WOPR is?
Yep, still agrees with your take. It even used your Tony Gwynn comparison to point out that good hitters don't have to regress to the "mean". Maybe I'm misinterpreting your angst, but this article is completely complimentary of Altuve, when there seems to be so much media hate for the Stros these days, that I find it hard to criticize.
Favorite part was in the comments section where fans of other teams were defending him. Nice Been a little while since we've seen that for an Astro.
If Altuve played in Boston or NY, we wouldn't stop hearing how awesome last season was... and it probably gets him a cover of one of the major magazines for their season preview.
Thanks. I thought I had lost my sliver of reading comprehension for a minute there. I've read the article several times and can't even find one backhanded compliment snuck in there. Odd.
