[ESPN] John Hollinger reveals new statistics: VA and EWA

VA sounds like a decent stat. Similar to VORP.

 

The VA formula has PER in it. Such a joke. Why can't we use our eyes to see who is the best player instead of a stupid stat.

 

this isn't really much of a new stat, it's just PER multiplied by playing time. just like the baseball stat for pitchers that is innings multiplied by ERA minus league average ERA. i think that's Runs Saved or something.

 

Numbers can most certainly be deceiving without context.


James White is shooting 100% for us! Zomg, best shooter in the league.

 

The key word is "context." Numbers don't lie, if you know what they mean.

People who say their eyes are more reliable than stats in judging basketball performance wouldn't trust their eyes over their car's speedometer when they want to know how fast the car is going. Afterall, what the speedometer shows is just numbers.

The problem with basketball stats is that even the experts like Hollinger don't know everything about how these numbers translate to measuring a player's performance. But they are definitely worth looking at.

 

Can someone honestly explain to me why Hollinger's statistics are met with skepticism and such hostility? I'm not saying anyone in this thread has (yet), but it seems like every time Hollinger's name comes up in a discussion it's met with "HOLLINGER'S JUST A NERD WHO CAN'T PLAY!" or something equally asinine. This happens on the Nugs board I'm on as well. I don't get it. He's not saying that his stats answer EVERYTHING, but they're additional tools to use in rating players. Why are people threatened by this stuff?

 

Agreed, numbers don't lie... there can't be anything false with pure data. (At least, that I know of? side tangent, I need to ask my math major buddy if data can lie.)

But, I'd argue that numbers can mislead us just as easily as our eyes. Both give data that can be misinterpreted/extrapolated beyond what we actually 'know'.

 

Yeah, Hollinger's not bad. When you read his articles he actually explains the holes in his stats and will offer a logical rationale for numbers that seem skewed. The problems occur when fans get a hold of these stats and start making assumptions.

QFT...

 

Actually true and false can not be defined. So when it comes right down to it, math can't tell us anything.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarski's_undefinability_theorem

 

Durvusa will love this

 

Say what you will, but for the most part Hollinger's stats come close to the eyeball test when people try to rank the top players. It's just another tool to use when evaluating people. Morey seems to have done pretty well so far using a calculator to help him out.

 

LOL, it's basically PER, numerically subtracting some averages and give out another number. What this really is saying is: you are more valuable as a SF and SG than if you are a PF etc, given the same PER. And in terms of Lebron/Kobe/wade comparison, it's saying whoever played more minutes matters more.

 

Hmm, so the average power forward adds more points to a team than any other position?

 

All these stats are ridiculous. Between Hollinger and all the fantasy league BS I guess the teams won't even have to play soon. The NBA can just plug all the stats and formulas into a computer and find out the scores and player stats without even playing the games.

"Hey guys, I'm having a final score party at my house for the Lakers/Rockets game on Saturday night. The score will be posted on NBA.com at 8 o'clock sharp so be at my house by around 7:55 and be ready to leave no later than 8:05."

 

To be honest, although I'm a geek when it comes to new sports stats, I'm quite hesistant on the aspect of PER. I just don't feel a basketball player can summed up in a single measure of worth, given that everyone plays different roles. This is fairly different from baseball hitters or pitchers, which more or less generally try to do the same thing.

I like true-shooting%, per-40 stats, +/- numbers(given proper context), but per is something I never warmed up to. Especially since so many "stats" are hidden from us commoners which guys like Morey have access to.

 

Who gives a banana about MVP stuff, it's all pointless. Just a thing to stir trouble in the league and dispute, and make more money at the end of the day having fans argue whose better than who. It's silly.

 

1. People fear what they don't understand

2. Most people are stupid.

Therefore, many people will reject and react with hostility to any numbers beyond the familiar PPG, REB, AST, etc. Math is scary. It's a natural human reaction.

 

Oops, this was the post I meant to quote: