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[ESPN Insider] Todd McShay Mock 3.0

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by FishBulb913, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. FishBulb913

    FishBulb913 Contributing Member

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    I'll post future ones in here as well, but this one just came out.

    With the combine behind us, pro days and individual workouts are next up on the schedule for teams evaluating players for the 2016 NFL draft.


    We made some updates to our board after seeing the measurements and athletic testing results from most of the top prospects in Indianapolis, and we continue to adjust players' grades as we complete their tape evaluations. We also came away from Indy with some more ideas on the direction teams could go with their picks.

    Which player will your team select in the first round? Here is our third projection of the 31 first-round picks in the 2016 NFL draft.


    1. Tennessee Titans

    Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi

    Tunsil is the most talented offensive lineman in the draft, so if Tennessee is interested in filling its biggest need -- and protecting QB Marcus Mariota for the long term -- he would be a great choice. If a QB-needy team is looking to leapfrog Cleveland and trade up to the No. 1 spot, then the Titans could stockpile some extra picks and still potentially get a really good second option at tackle in Ronnie Stanley.

    2. Cleveland Browns

    Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

    The Browns have a lot of needs, but none of them matter much until they find a long-term answer at QB. Wentz and Cal's Jared Goff continued to separate themselves from the rest of the QB class at the NFL combine. The decision here will come down to personal preference. Wentz has better athleticism and bigger hands to grip the ball in bad weather. Goff has more experience against high-level competition and a stronger arm. I give Wentz the edge for now, but it's close.

    3. San Diego Chargers

    DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon

    Offensive tackle is certainly an option here, with Philip Rivers aging and the line continuing to struggle last season. But Buckner would give San Diego a much-needed scheme-versatile defender who is a disruptive force against the run. He made great strides as a pass-rusher last season, finishing the Pac-12 season with 8.0 sacks in nine games. At 6-foot-7 and 291 pounds, Buckner is a perfect 5-technique in a 3-4.



    4. Dallas Cowboys

    Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State

    Bosa plays with great leverage and is masterful at using his hands to shed blockers. He didn't have the best showing at the combine, but once you turn on the film, it's clear that Bosa is a top-tier player in this draft. Dallas needs impact defenders, and Bosa would be ready to start from Day 1 in Rod Marinelli's 4-3 scheme. CB Jalen Ramsey is another option here.

    5. Jacksonville Jaguars

    Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State

    The Jaguars have needs at both corner and safety. The solution? Draft Ramsey and figure out which hole you want him to plug. The Florida State product has the lateral quickness and natural athleticism to play cornerback in the NFL, and the frame (6-foot-1, 209 pounds), top-end speed (4.41 40-yard dash) and run-stuffing ability to excel at safety. He tested off the charts in Indy and is one of the safest prospects in this draft.

    6. Baltimore Ravens

    Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame

    Stanley didn't test off the charts at the combine, but his long arms (just over 35½ inches) and big frame (6-foot-6, 312 pounds) are what you're looking for in a left tackle prospect. The Ravens would have the luxury of easing Stanley into his role at left tackle with Eugene Monroe still under contract. Two other options the Ravens could look at here: (1) RB Ezekiel Elliott and (2) trading back. Ozzie Newsome loves to stockpile picks and a team like the Rams could be tempted to jump ahead of San Francisco and take Goff.

    7. San Francisco 49ers

    Jared Goff, QB, Cal

    There's a lot still to be hashed out between the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick. But if Chip Kelly is looking to draft his QB of the future and Goff falls to No. 7, the 49ers might just pull the trigger. Goff is a naturally accurate thrower who displays above-average anticipation. His smooth release would fit perfectly within Kelly's scheme, which counts on the quarterback getting the ball out on time and on target.

    8. Miami Dolphins

    Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

    Jack, who is still recovering from an early-season knee injury, didn't participate in drills at the combine. But his tape shows a twitched-up athlete who thrives in coverage and can make plays all over the field versus the run. If the Dolphins are looking to add a much-needed playmaker to the second level, Jack is their best bet.

    9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida

    It's not often the best pure cover corner in the draft falls to No. 9 overall, but here we are. Hargreaves wins in man-to-man coverage with elite quickness and footwork, and he showed off excellent ball skills during his time at Florida (10 career interceptions in 37 games). Playing in a division against Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, the Bucs need to continue to upgrade their secondary.

    10. New York Giants

    Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

    Defense -- specifically DE, LB and CB -- are all bigger needs, and Clemson DE Shaq Lawson could be a good fit if the Giants are unable to lure Jason Pierre-Paul back to New York. However, after a good performance in Indianapolis, I think there's a strong chance Elliott goes in the top 10, whether it's to the Giants or via a team trading up. At 6-foot and 225 pounds, he has the frame and skill set to be an every-down back in the pros. And his 4.47 40-yard dash at the combine confirmed what we saw on tape: Elliott has breakaway speed once he gets a crease.

    11. Chicago Bears

    Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson

    The Bears need more impact players on defense, and Lawson -- who led the FBS with 25.5 tackles for loss last season -- fits the bill. He plays with a good mixture of relentlessness, technique and discipline. Lawson isn't the best athlete on tape, but he tested well at the combine and has a good first step.

    12. New Orleans Saints

    A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama

    Robinson is never going to be a guy who puts up huge numbers or blows away the athletic tests in Indy, but if you're looking for an interior D-lineman to plug holes and occupy blockers, this is your guy. On tape, he consistently stands up opposing linemen and pushes them into the backfield. He does a good job of tracking the ball and redirecting for someone who's 307 pounds. Tough, physical and imposing, Robinson is exactly the type of player the Saints need to change their identity on defense.

    13. Philadelphia Eagles

    Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State

    This would be an ideal situation for Conklin. Based on the tape I've watched, he has the skill set of a right tackle. But his athletic testing at the combine -- 5.0-second 40-yard dash, 7.63 three-cone and 4.57 short shuttle -- and his long arms (35 inches) suggest he could potentially be a left tackle someday. If he went to Philly, Conklin wouldn't be pressured to protect the QB's blind side from day one, given that the Eagles just signed Lane Johnson to an extension.

    14. Oakland Raiders

    Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State

    A true 6-foot-1 and 199 pounds, Apple has the size NFL teams covet in their corners. He played a lot of press-man coverage at Ohio State and has the speed (4.40 40-yard dash at the combine) to turn and run with faster wideouts. Apple still needs to refine his ball skills, but there's a lot to like about his raw skill set.

    15. Los Angeles Rams

    Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi

    Would the Rams pull the trigger on Memphis QB Paxton Lynch if he's still on the board here? I'm guessing they'd pass. Would they try to package some picks and move up to, say, No. 6 to snag Goff or Wentz? Perhaps. For now, I'll give them Treadwell. Wide receiver is another top need. He didn't run at the combine, and I'm interested to see his time at his pro day on March 28, but his game isn't built on pure speed. He's a big, strong receiver with a very good combination of athletic ability, body control and ball skills.

    16. Detroit Lions

    Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State

    Matthew Stafford was sacked 89 times the past two seasons, so the Lions have to address their offensive line somehow this offseason. Decker has good experience and is a solid fit at right tackle -- a specific need for Detroit up front. A highly efficient run-blocker, Decker plays with enough toughness and range to hold up in pass protection at the next level.

    17. Atlanta Falcons

    Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State

    The Falcons were the worst defense in the NFL at covering running backs and tight ends last season, allowing 213 combined completions, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Selecting Lee -- a very good cover linebacker with 4.47 speed -- would go a long way toward addressing that weakness. The former Buckeye fits into today's NFL very well and would provide an immediate upgrade to Atlanta's LB corps.

    18. Indianapolis Colts

    Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia

    If Tunsil, Stanley, Conklin and Decker are all off the board, the Colts will have to decide whether to reach for an O-lineman (Jason Spriggs and Germain Ifedi are next up on my board) or take an impact player elsewhere. Floyd would give Indianapolis an athlete who can pressure the QB and drop into coverage. He's not a finished product, so that might scare off some talent evaluators, but Floyd has the raw tools to develop into a playmaker.

    19. Buffalo Bills

    Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville

    You have to think Rex Ryan would be pretty happy if Rankins fell to No. 19 overall. He's not Sheldon Richardson, but the Louisville product would fill that type of role playing alongside Marcell Dareus in Ryan's defense. Rankins has a unique combination of quickness and power for someone who weighs 299 pounds. One of the most underrated players in this class, Rankins brings a lot of scheme versatility to the table.

    20. New York Jets

    Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky

    How the Jets handle free agency will dictate the importance of drafting a running back or a quarterback (Paxton Lynch?) here. With a ton of dominoes still to fall, I'll give them Spence, who turned in a disappointing performance at the combine after showing rare quickness and bend around the edge at the Senior Bowl. He's a confounding prospect, especially when it comes to his personal character, but some team is going to fall in love with his ceiling.

    21. Washington Redskins

    Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama

    Reed has the skill set to be the centerpiece in a 3-4 front. At 6-3 and 307 pounds, the Crimson Tide product maintains great leverage and is hard to move off the ball. While he is never going to be a consistent threat to rush the passer from the interior, Reed maintains very good gap discipline versus the run, showing the ability to beat double-teams and penetrate the backfield.
    22. Houston Texans

    Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech

    While they might be tempted to take Paxton Lynch or Christian Hackenberg here, I think the Texans will wait until Round 2 to snag a QB, even if it means they have to move up a little bit. Houston's defense was outstanding down the stretch, but J.J. Watt needs some help up front. Butler has the versatility to play nose tackle or 5-technique DE. His tape is a lot better than his athletic testing at the combine indicated. Butler has the size (6-4, 323), length (35-plus-inch arms) and upper-body power (26 reps on the bench) to wreak havoc up front.

    23. Minnesota Vikings

    Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State

    WR Josh Doctson would make sense here too, but this is a pure value pick. Bell is currently No. 17 on our board, and the Vikings are in need of a playmaker opposite of Harrison Smith. With nine career interceptions, Bell has elite cover skills for a safety. He shows good recovery speed when needed and can match up with most slot wide receivers and tight ends one-on-one. Bell is ready to start from day one.

    24. Cincinnati Bengals

    Josh Doctson, WR, TCU

    Doctson is the best WR in this year's class at attacking the ball when it's in the air. With a good frame (6-2, 202), a wide catch radius (41-inch vertical) and big hands (nearly 10 inches), the former Horned Frog has a chance to develop into a reliable deep threat at the next level. If Vernon Butler and/or Jarran Reed fell this far, they would both be possibilities because depth is a question in the middle of the Bengals' defense.

    25. Pittsburgh Steelers

    Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson

    Tight end is a need, and we have a first-round grade on Hunter Henry, but you have to think the Steelers are going to spend this pick on a defender. Quick-twitched, instinctive and capable versus the run, Alexander is a really good all-around player. But he finished college with zero interceptions and lacks ideal length; he measured 5-foot-10 with arms less than 31½ inches at the combine. Houston CB William Jackson III, who had an impressive combine workout and has really underrated tape, is another possibility here.

    26. Seattle Seahawks

    Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi

    The Seahawks have shown a willingness to take a chance on risk/reward prospects in the past, and Nkemdiche, who comes with plenty of off-field baggage, certainly fits that bill. Even though his tape is inconsistent, he has top-10 talent, and his combine workout confirmed his rare athletic ability. According to ESPN Stats & Information data, Nkemdiche is just the fifth defensive lineman since 2006 to weigh in at 290-plus pounds, run a sub-5.00 40-yard dash and jump at least 35 inches in the vertical.

    27. Green Bay Packers

    Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama

    With Clay Matthews set to move back to OLB, you'd have to think the Packers would jump at the chance to take the No. 14 overall player on our board -- and the best ILB in the class -- at pick No. 27. I wouldn't be surprised if Ragland went a little earlier to the Bears, Falcons, Jets or Bengals, but he could fall because of team needs and positional value. Ragland's football intelligence, toughness and straight-line speed will be an asset to whichever team takes him.

    28. Kansas City Chiefs

    Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State

    With so many key defenders set to be free agents, the Chiefs' focus with this pick could change greatly over the coming months. Kansas City could gamble on LB Jaylon Smith here, who is one of the most talented players in this class but suffered a significant injury at the worst time. Jones comes with risk too. He plays with an inconsistent motor, and there's some concern about his overall work ethic. But his freakish combination of length, strength and straight-line burst gives him a high ceiling.

    29. Arizona Cardinals

    Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State

    This would be an interesting -- and ideal -- situation for Paxton Lynch, who would have a chance to sit behind and learn from Carson Palmer. If they don't pull the trigger on a QB in Round 1, look for the Cardinals to take a developmental prospect such as Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg on Day 2. Arizona also needs to address its pass rush, which is where Correa comes in. With 19 sacks in his final two seasons, Correa is a dynamic athlete with the versatility to rush the QB and hold up in coverage.

    30. Carolina Panthers

    Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State

    The Panthers will be in the market for more depth at cornerback, so you'd have to think William Jackson III and Kendall Fuller would be in the mix here too. And while Ogbah had a terrific combine, his motor runs hot and cold on tape, which is a concern. When he decides to cut loose as a pass-rusher, he has an outstanding combination of length, quickness and power.

    31. Denver Broncos

    Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana

    Spriggs was one of the big winners in Indy. He's inconsistent on tape, but his size (just over 6-foot-5½) and athleticism (he crushed the short shuttle and 40 at the combine) make him an appealing prospect, especially in Denver's zone-blocking scheme. Adding depth up front will be one of the Broncos' top offseason priorities.
     
  2. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    Heard this tune for about 10 years now. :p Odds we hear it in 10 years from now?

    ...but Mario Williams needs some help up front.
    ...but J.J. Watt needs some help up front.
    ...but [next great defensive end] needs some help up front.
     
  3. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    Travis Johnson is this close to being a big time player.
     
  4. Ziggy

    Ziggy Tastemaker
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    I think Okoye is finally of age and ready to contribute.
     
  5. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    I mean if this team takes ANOTHER defensive lineman in the first round......
     
  6. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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    Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock draft has us taking WR Will Fuller

    *pukes*
     
  7. Nimo

    Nimo Member
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    You mean defensive lineman being forced to play outside linebacker
     
  8. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    Herb Sewell's latest mock 17.0 has us taking Kamalei Correa.

    His next one should come out in about 30 minutes.
     
  9. Snow Villiers

    Snow Villiers Member

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    James Harden needs help at Guard. Good ole' Houston Sports.
     
  10. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    You don't like Fuller? If Zeke is gone I wouldn't have a problem with that. He reminds me of desean Jackson minus the locker room issues.
     
  11. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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    So the WR's drafted in front of us in the mock draft were Coleman and Treadwell; I like Michael Thomas, Sheperd, and Boyd as well. I rather have those guys
     
  12. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    Love the mocks that now have them taking a WR, after the news that Strong was arrested.

    Before it was Elliott or a QB, now it's WR.

    Connor Cook(USAT)
    Will Fuller(WF)
    Will Fuller(NFL)
    Paxton Lynch(SI)
    Corey Coleman(BR)
    Jarran Reed(SBNation)
    Andrew Billings(CBS)
    Ezekiel Elliott(CBS)
    Ezekiel Elliott(CBS)
    Corey Coleman(DraftTek)
    Connor Cook(DraftSite)
     
  13. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    How about trading down out of the first if Elliot isn't there and the QB we want is still gonna be there round 2
     
  14. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    If Lynch is there, we have to select him there or trade down (which would indicate we view him similar to the next group). Otherwise, this BS about prioritizing the QB position is BS.

    I don't really care if you see an OL or WR you like there. You trade back, get the QB you want at the right value, and still maximize your draft value and improve your ability to fill holes with extra picks. Its not like we have a stacked team without multiple holes to fill.
     
  15. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    If Lynch and/or Wentz is available at 22 and the Texans pass on them for a DL, there should be rioting in the streets.
     
  16. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Agree with this. We traded up for busts last 2 years and now need to make up for it
     
  17. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    Wait...

    When did Lynch go from a top 5 pick to a 2nd rounder? What happened?
     
  18. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    He's been dropping supposedly. I think it's because he's more raw, not ready to start right away
     
  19. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Contributing Member
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    On Lynch:

    At the combine, he had bone chips in his shoulder, and some teams were apparently very concerned. Also, his college offense is very much the typical spread, not requiring a lot of QB reads. It's a whole bunch of swing passes and screens and little 5 yard slants. Very much not a sure thing. His college games present a very incomplete picture.

    On the plus side, his mobility is amazing for a guy that big, and it looked pretty clear to me that he had a bigger arm that Wentz and Goff at the combine.

    I think its one of those things where the great physical stuff jumps out and hits you over the head when you start looking at him, and then when you start looking a little bit closer at what he's actually being asked to do on the field, questions arise.

    If you want to see what I'm talking about and have a little time, watch this, and pay attention to how often he actually looks down field, and how often he throws it where he knew he was going to throw it before he snapped the ball. At most it's usually one read, then scramble and hope the WR's create something.

    <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ijt0aYf3NLw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    On Butler:

    Biggest downside is having to listen to people say, "The Butler did it" every time he makes a play. Could join "Houston, we have a problem" in the hall of fame for most annoying overused phrases.
     
    #19 Ottomaton, Mar 2, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2016
  20. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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    Brooks latest mock:

    22 HOU
    CARSON WENTZ
    QBNORTH DAKOTA ST.

    Bill O’Brien would have a tough time bypassing a big, athletic pocket passer with a rocket arm. Although Wentz will need some time to acclimate to the pro game, the Texans have a solid supporting cast in place to make a playoff push with a young quarterback at the helm.

    http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/mock-drafts/bucky-brooks/300601?sf21864126=1
     
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