[ESPN INSIDER] Rockets Thunder Preview

oelman44 · Apr 21, 2013

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/play...s-versus-oklahoma-city-thunder-playoff-series

Scouting Rockets-Thunder
Breaking down the NBA playoffs with expert scouting and advanced statistics

QUESTION 1: Who's salivating more: James Harden facing his old team, or the Thunder facing an awful Rockets defense?

Elhassan: As much as I believe Harden has been dreaming of this day since the moment Thunder general manager Sam Presti said "no" to Harden's max extension request, the answer is unequivocally the Thunder, for several reasons.

Harden
The Rockets' inability to contain dribble-drive penetration along the perimeter, combined with poor rotation and closeout technique, makes them extremely susceptible to defensive breakdowns and wide-open corner 3-point shots, which pretty much is music to Oklahoma City's ears. Harden will have his fair share of video game-caliber box scores in this series, but it won't be enough to overcome rampant team defense deficiencies.

Doolittle: Harden will have to overcome the temptation to try to take over every possession because as good as he is, he's not going to knock off his old team by himself. Harden had one of the best games any player had this season in February, when he scored 46 points on just 19 shots against the Thunder. However, he'd do well to lead by example on the defensive end. The Thunder scored at least 119 points in each of the three regular-season meetings between the teams, though Houston managed to outscore Oklahoma City once, thanks to Harden's outburst.

QUESTION 2: Which Rockets have the unenviable task of covering Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook?

Elhassan: Chandler Parsons will get the assignment on Durant in name, as defending the NBA's second-leading scorer will have to be a five-man endeavor. Parsons isn't stopping Durant from getting anywhere: I jokingly called the defense "Parsons Boulevard" for the ease with which dribble penetration occurred.

Durant
The adjustment will have to come from the secondary and tertiary defensive rotations, but Durant's much-improved ballhandling and passing skills add a different dimension this season in the 3-1 pick-and-roll, where he is the ballhandler and Westbrook is the screener (a role reversal of the 1-3 they usually run), which can create further havoc down the line for Houston's defense. While Jeremy Lin will start on Westbrook, look for Patrick Beverley to see a lot of time as well, as he is the lone guard on the Rockets' roster with the defensive makeup to keep up with Westbrook.

Doolittle: The Rockets' pace makes their defense seem worse than it is. In reality, it's a middle-of-the-pack group on that end, and is actually pretty good as long Omer Asik is on the floor. Asik has to stay out of foul trouble, first and foremost, or Durant and Westbrook will go wild in the paint no matter who guards them. I like the idea of putting Harden on Westbrook at crunch time. For what it's worth, Westbrook shot just 41.8 percent with Harden on the floor in 102 minutes. As for Durant, Houston has no answer. No one does.

QUESTION 3: Can anyone on the Rockets match Kevin Martin's production off the OKC bench?

Elhassan: The main thing stopping Parsons from matching Martin's production is Parsons himself. Even though he is a vastly improved shooter, he is still a reluctant one and can go through stretches where he disappears in games. Also, he tends to follow the "Mathketball" rules (the name I gave the Rockets' stat-influenced offensive philosophy that discourages non-rim or 3-point field goal attempts) too doggedly, as he often will penetrate on hard closeouts, only to leave his feet too early and telegraph passes out to the perimeter.

Parsons
Martin, on the other hand, is a confident scorer who knows his role and plays it perfectly. He is the prototypical offensive spark off the bench, able to put points up in a hurry and unapologetically, which separates him from Parsons.

Doolittle: Probably not, as the Rockets lack creators off the bench. Here's a wild card, though: Donatas Motiejunas. It's a limited sample size, but one of the Rockets' most effective lineups this season was their core four starters plus Motiejunas playing the 4. He's got the length to score in the paint and the range to stretch the defense. His 3-point shot has been inconsistent, but who knows, you might catch lightning in a bottle. Motiejunas' foul-drawing numbers and rate of unassisted buckets both suggest a guy capable of creating for himself. Unfortunately, Kevin McHale doesn't trust his rebounding or defense.

Predictions

Elhassan: The Rockets are a fun team to watch, but they are still a couple of pieces away from being a team to reckon with in the postseason, while the Thunder are a team that can legitimately claim that anything less than a championship is a disappointing end to the season. It is interesting to see Oklahoma City progress from having a "little brother" relationship with the Lakers a few years ago to now being the "big brother" to Houston. Prediction: Thunder in five.

Don't be surprised if: Serge Ibaka has career highs in 3-pointers made and attempted, as Houston gave up the sixth-most corner 3-pointers made in the league.

Doolittle: It comes down to stops, and I don't see the Rockets getting enough of them. Houston must lock down the paint with Asik, avoid fouls as much as possible, and hope Oklahoma City has a string of cold shooting performances. Lost in all of this is that the Thunder are a top-5 defensive team and held the Rockets to less than 100 points twice despite the frenetic pace. Houston turned the ball over more often than any team in the league, and that feeds right into quick and easy offense for Durant, Westbrook and company. Prediction: Thunder in five.

Don't be surprised if: Martin has a huge series. Don't forget, Harden isn't the only player facing his former team. Martin shot the ball well from deep against Houston in the regular season, like most of the Thunder. If Houston tries to take away the paint, that'll open things up for Martin.

Log5 probabilities: 83.8 percent chance Thunder win the series.
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hikanoo49 · Apr 21, 2013

Good article

Harden has alot to prove this series. Alot of ball stopping players are great for stats but have problems being the #1 guy on a winning team. He was a winning 6 man, so lets see if he can be a winning #1 player

knickstorm · Apr 21, 2013

did i miss something? westbrook shoots 41. whatever percent in 100 whatever minutes with harden on the floor? so what, i never remembered him guarding him.

Type Raba · Apr 21, 2013

83.8%? more like 99.9%...

Williamson · Apr 21, 2013

Parsons is the spark off the bench that can match Kevin Martin? WTF?

oelman44 · Apr 21, 2013

Type Raba said: ↑

83.8%? more like 99.9%...
Click to expand...

I agree... the Thunder only have about 0.1% chance of winning this :grin:

Williamson · Apr 21, 2013

Type Raba said: ↑

83.8%? more like 99.9%...
Click to expand...

So you're saying there is a chance?

knickstorm · Apr 21, 2013

jmwilliamson said: ↑

Parsons is the spark off the bench that can match Kevin Martin? WTF?
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whole thing is silly, Montiejunas is the wild card?!?! LOL maybe Greg Smith and Terrence Jones can help Asik and somehow Rox can win the boards and not let Collison/ibaka/perkins walk all over them. That's a wildcard.

Patience · Apr 21, 2013

jmwilliamson said: ↑

Parsons is the spark off the bench that can match Kevin Martin? WTF?
Click to expand...

Yeah, that was a weird statement they made. It would make more sense to compare Parsons to Ibaka, since he is a starter. Honestly, the Rockets really don't have any significant bench scorer to compare to Martin.

However, I do agree that the bench is the x-factor for the Rockets. If they get decent bench contributions from Delfino, Beverley, and one of the PFs, that will make a huge difference. If not, I don't think the Rockets stand a real chance. OKC has too many weapons.

oelman44 · Apr 21, 2013

Patience said: ↑

Yeah, that was a weird statement they made. It would make more sense to compare Parsons to Ibaka, since he is a starter. Honestly, the Rockets really don't have any significant bench scorer to compare to Martin.

However, I do agree that the bench is the x-factor for the Rockets. If they get decent bench contributions from Delfino, Beverley, and one of the PFs, that will make a huge difference. If not, I don't think the Rockets stand a real chance. OKC has too many weapons.
Click to expand...

I feel like AB could help a lot in that bench scorer regard.

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