[ESPN-Insider] Rockets team forecast

Link to forecast by John Hollinger

2006-07 Recap
Last season's edition of the Rockets had a five-man defense and a two-man offense, a system that was useful for grinding out regular-season wins and shutting down opponents but came up short when an opponent could devise a game plan for it in the postseason. As a result, Houston's season ended earlier than expected after a surprising seven-game first-round defeat against Utah.

While Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady were the stars, in a way they were secondary in how the season played out. That the Rockets' campaign went the way it did was a product of two things: (1) a lack of secondary offensive players, and (2) Jeff Van Gundy.

Let's start with the first item. The Rockets were plainly shorthanded on the offensive end, putting all kinds of pressure on their two stars to create shots. Despite having Yao and T-Mac, Houston only finished 14th in offensive efficiency, which says about all you need to know regarding the supporting cast.

Most 3-Point Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt, 2006-07
TEAM 3-PT % 3A/FGA
Houston 37.2 .290
Phoenix 39.9 .287
New Jersey 36.3 .263
Detroit 33.9 19.0
L.A. Lakers 35.3 .259
League average 35.8 .213


The Rockets took a ton of 3-pointers thanks to all the attention those two players drew, leading the league with 29.0 percent of their shot attempts coming on 3s. They cashed them in, too, ranking fifth in the league at 37.2 percent.

But nobody could create a shot on his own, and the strain showed in McGrady's numbers especially. He led the league in usage rate, but his 51.5 true shooting percentage was well below the league average. It's not hard to connect the dots -- McGrady kept having to force up bad shots at the end of the clock because his teammates couldn't create anything on their own.

While it was a season-long problem, the most glaring examples came in the postseason. In Game 5 against Utah all but eight of the Rockets' field goals were scored or assisted by McGrady; in Game 7 all but nine were.

One reason Houston's offense struggled was because two potential solutions never saw the light of day. One was Bonzi Wells, who signed as a free agent but showed up out of shape, couldn't get healthy and almost immediately clashed with Van Gundy. He struggled in his rare appearances and sat out the postseason. The second was Vassilis Spanoulis, a talented pick-and-roll point guard imported from Greece whom Van Gundy unbelievably tried to use as a spot-up shooter. Spanoulis can't shoot at all, and of course failed miserably in this role before being exiled to the end of the bench. Van Gundy's mishandling of Spanoulis continued a two-decade-long pattern exhibited by the entire Pat Riley coaching tree. For some reason, Riley's disciples have trouble bringing themselves to trust any overseas player shorter than 7-6.

Field Goal Percentage Defense Leaders
TEAM OPP. FG%
Houston 42.9
Chicago 43.5
Orlando 44.2
San Antonio 44.3
Miami 44.4
League average 45.8


While Van Gundy couldn't get the offense untracked, there's no question he is one of the best defensive coaches of all time. Houston led the NBA in field goal percentage defense last season; look at this roster and ponder that for a second. While role players like Shane Battier and Chuck Hayes deserve credit for their efforts, the Rockets unquestionably punched above their weight at this end. This is nothing new for Van Gundy, however -- every team he's coached has finished in the top five in field goal defense.

Once those shots missed, the Rockets took care of business. Houston's 77.0 percent defensive rebound rate led the league by a healthy margin, with Yao, Hayes and Dikembe Mutombo dominating the defensive glass.

The lone drawback was that Houston played a low-risk defense that had one of the league's lowest rates of forced turnovers. Thus, the Rockets "only" finished third in defensive efficiency, and the defense created few transition chances for the offense.

Despite the defensive success, all was not well on the home front. Van Gundy didn't feel appreciated by the Rockets, while the team had some qualms over the stagnant offense and the fact that two key offseason pickups, Wells and Spanoulis, were barely playing. Almost immediately after the season, the coach and team agreed to part ways.

 

Offseason moves

Offseason Moves
The Rockets had one of the league's most eventful offseasons, and arguably the best. GM Daryl Morey swapped out coaches, massively upgraded the bench and managed to skim a talented power forward off his top division rival.



Adelman• Replaced Jeff Van Gundy with Rick Adelman
In choosing a replacement for Van Gundy, the Rockets hardly could have done better than Adelman. While he makes for an easy target for scribes because of his teams' many playoff disappointments, the fact is he's won big in both Portland and Sacramento.

And better yet, he essentially gives the team a free player in the process. The unhappy Wells suddenly became gruntled once the team hired Adelman, who coached him to a huge season two years ago in Sacramento. Adelman will be a big contrast from Van Gundy stylistically, too, as he's more of an up-tempo offensive coach who should be able to take advantage of some of the Rockets' new weapons.

One item that bears watching is that Adelman is a fairly extreme short-rotation guy, with his approach being to pick out his eight best players in November and then get out of their way. With all the quality players Houston assembled this offseason, it's inevitable that a few guys who might expect to play will end up at the end of the bench, and they might make a stink about it.



Scola• Traded Vassilis Spanoulis, a second-round pick and cash to San Antonio for Jackie Butler and Luis Scola
It cost the Rockets some dough, but this could be the deal that puts Houston over the hump. Last season the Rockets had a glaring hole at power forward at the offensive end, one that gave opponents free rein to double Yao and T-Mac. Now Houston has a high-skill guy in Scola who can make opponents pay.

Scola has arguably been the best player in Europe over the past half-decade, and while he may need an adjustment period he also came quite inexpensively. The Rockets signed him to a three-year, $9 million deal that should end up being one of the best bargain contracts of the summer.

Moreover, the deal didn't cost them any useful players. Spanoulis had already decided to return to Europe, so the division rival Spurs got nothing from the deal except cap space. In fact, Houston added a second asset in the same trade. Butler was a throw-in for cap purposes, but he's a young, talented post scorer who can make an impact off the pine if he can stay in shape. Look for him to step up in 2008-09 after Mutombo retires.



James• Traded Juwan Howard to Minnesota for Mike James and Justin Reed
The Rockets took on a longer contract in order to address the need for more shooting in the backcourt, bringing in a long-range ace in James to push Alston for minutes. Reed is unlikely to make the team.

• Signed guard Steve Francis
The Rockets pounced once the Blazers bought out Francis' deal, bringing him back to his first NBA city (at least, the first one he was willing to set foot in) on a cap-friendly two-year, $6 million deal.

Francis will have to adjust to the new reality of becoming a role player, something he seemed to have trouble with in Orlando and New York, but the Rockets really need somebody who can create off the dribble at the end of the clock and Francis can do that. The worry is that he'll kill the beginning of the clock with his dribbling too.

• Drafted guard Aaron Brooks and forward Carl Landry
Brooks will have a tough time eking out minutes in a crowded guard rotation, especially as a tiny shoot-first guard on a team that already has enough scorers. Landry was a surprising choice as the first pick of the second round -- he's basically another Chuck Hayes.

• Re-signed Chuck Hayes
What a bargain -- four years for only $8 million, and less than that if he fails to hit certain incentives. For a quality defensive power forward, that's chump change, and I was fairly amazed some other teams didn't make a run at him. Hayes is unlikely to be the starter again, but he'll fill an important role as a defensive ace off the pine and can bail out Scola if physical power forwards are giving him trouble.

• Re-signed Dikembe Mutombo
One year and $1.2 million ain't too shabby for an insurance policy, even at 41. And although he's hinting that it's his last season, Deke is still hungry for that first ring. That should help come playoff time.

 

Biggest Strengths and weaknesses

Biggest Strength: Backcourt Depth
Last season, the Rockets had to play Rafer Alston nearly 40 minutes a game -- even as his bricks were killing them in the playoff loss to Utah -- because they had nobody else. Suffice it to say that shouldn't be an issue this season.

In fact, the Rockets have so many quality backcourt players that it's going to be difficult to decide whom to play. At the point, Francis and James figure to split most of the minutes, but Alston and Brooks remain in the picture too.

Yet that position seems relatively easy to figure out compared to the shooting guard slot. McGrady is the nominal starter, but could see a lot of minutes at small forward if the Rockets choose to play small. If so, that opens up room for Wells to re-establish himself as a quality scorer off the pine.

Then there's Luther Head, last season's 3-point specialist. There's Kirk Snyder, who played well for the Hornets two seasons ago but lost most of last season to injuries. And of course, there are Francis and James, both of whom are capable of sliding up from the point guard spot to play the 2.

Complicating matters further is that Adelman rarely goes deep into his bench. It might be that only three of these guys will play, or four at most. McGrady is obviously one, with the smart money on Francis, James and Wells being the others. If so, there are going to be some awfully good players waving towels at the end of the Houston bench.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Biggest Weakness: The Forwards
Hey, something has to be the biggest weakness. So while in general the Rockets seem pretty stacked, here's where the greatest concern lies. For all the plaudits we constantly hurl at Battier, he had a pretty poor offensive season last season and the Rockets have to be a little concerned about it. Regardless of which forward spot he plays, Houston needs him to do more than occasionally lob in 3s from the corner.

If Battier is the small forward, then power forward also becomes a concern. I'm a big Scola fan, but he's an unknown quantity at the NBA level and may need an adjustment period to acclimate himself to the different rules. Beyond him, there's Hayes, who is an elite defensive player and an underrated rebounder, but whose offensive limitations became glaringly obvious in last season's playoffs.

 

Outlook

Outlook
This might take some of you by surprise, so let me start by saying I realize the waters in which I tread have claimed many good souls before. Betting on Adelman and McGrady to achieve postseason success hasn't been a really wise play over the past decade. Betting on both to win together seems downright masochistic.

Could this be the year T-Mac and Yao see the second round?

That said … I'm betting on these guys. Big time. Like division champs big. Like best record in the West big. And yes, like winning the championship big.

Of course, it's never easy to come out of the West. Houston could easily finish third in its own division, as it's populated by what I consider to be the three best teams in basketball. The two-month playoff grind is a concern, too, given the health problems for McGrady and Yao in recent years -- especially the back trouble that has plagued T-Mac.

While I'm going over potential weaknesses, let's put a few others out there. The team is unlikely to defend as well as it did last season, as Adelman can't match Van Gundy's brilliant track record at that end. It's not clear if Francis can reform his over-dribbling ways and become a secondary player, nor if Scola can make the immediate adjustment to NBA ball that will be needed to close the open wound at power forward. And it appears Yao's defense can be taken advantage of in a seven-game series -- just ask Carlos Boozer for confirmation.

I like them anyway.

What makes me think these guys are so qualified to climb to the top of the mountain? Mainly, the help. Last season Houston had two superstars but little else offensively, and McGrady's numbers cracked under the strain. This season the Rockets have the same two superstars, but now have several quality role players around them to pick up the slack.

In particular, the addition of more players who can create their own shot is going to be a huge benefit to the offense, which was excruciating to watch last season. I'm still haunted by the memories of four guys standing around watching T-Mac during that seventh game against Utah while missing a ton of open kickout shots.

And it's not as if Houston was chopped liver a season ago. The Rockets won 52 games, and actually were much better than their record. One would expect a team with their scoring differential to win 57.4, and as those of you who've read me for a while know, differences between real and "expected" wins are almost pure luck.

That came with McGrady and Yao combining to miss 45 games, Wells going in the tank, Snyder missing half the season and the head coach working on his exit strategy.

So what happens if you take that team and add Wells (essentially), Francis, James, Brooks, Scola, and Butler, and give it a coach who wants to be there? It's scary to think, but a gang that had 57-win talent a season ago may also be the league's most improved team.

And for that reason, even considering T-Mac's and Adelman's postseason histories, one can make a fairly convincing case that the Rockets are the team most likely to be holding the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June.


Prediction: 61-21, 1st in Southwest, 1st in Western Conference

 

Meh, found it, but sort of buried in a thread

If you see fit, lock her up !

DD

 

That is why I think we may get rid of some NBA rotation quality players to get better chemistry wise.

DD

 

Look,

I did not start this thread to rehash old arguments, just to discuss the analysis.

DD

 

I honestly don't have an answer to your question, but I have to think having 12 players that are top 8 material on most NBA teams could create chemistry issues.

A lot of players are only signed for one year, if there are players that may be younger and bring the same type of game to the table they may be expendable.

I would not be surprised if anyone other than these players would possibly be traded:

Tmac
Yao
Scola
Battier
Deke

The rest you could make a case for trading them if the deal is right or we have players of equal talent.

I just hope Adelman can manage this situation, it is all good before the season starts, but once that happens and players have to sit, and they know they are good enough to play in the NBA, it could cause some serious chemistry problems.

DD