[ESPN Insider Request] Rockets 2014-15 Forecast and Player Profiles

I'd like to read it, too. The preview seems to be a fair assessment and not emotional knee-jerk like many articles out there talking about the Rockets' off-season.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2014/story/_/page/hou-1415forecast/houston-rockets-outlook

They say luck is the residue of design, but it's not its inevitable product. There was nothing wrong with the plan Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey put into play this summer. He attempted to form a championship-caliber power trio that began with James Harden's acquisition two years ago and was buoyed last year by the signing of star center Dwight Howard. This time, Chris Bosh would have been the perfect piece to complete the set.

Spoiler

To accomplish that, flexibility had to be created, so Omer Asik was traded, as was Jeremy Lin. Bosh was offered a max deal. With LeBron James leaving the Miami Heat and such an alluring core in place in Houston, it all made a lot of sense. Heck, Bosh is even a Texas native. In the end, Bosh stayed put. He likes Miami. His family likes Miami. He will be the featured scorer for the Heat now. That makes a lot of sense, too. No one was wrong in this situation.

NBA TEAM PREVIEWS

How do all 30 teams stack up in '14-15? Check out our projections? Preview »

That doesn't necessarily lessen the sting for Rockets fans. They are also reeling from the loss of Chandler Parsons, a charismatic young forward who was already productive but seems primed for a lot more. Yet, Morey recovered to fill out the roster. He's got a state-of-the-art player development system ready to yield results. He's still got the star duo of Harden and Howard, and the Rockets won 54 games a season ago. By not matching the Dallas Mavericks' offer for Parsons, Morey also has flexibility to improve the team moving forward. The Rockets hope this summer proves to be merely a stumble along the path to an eventual title.



2013-14 RECAP


AP Photo/David J. Phillip
After a successful regular season, Kevin McHale and the Rockets got bounced in the first round.
The addition of Howard made the Rockets major players in the Western Conference. Houston flirted with a top seed and ended up fourth in the West. The free-wheeling offense was elite, ranking third, thanks to the inside scoring of Howard, the super efficiency of Harden and the league's best overall shot selection. Houston has been a top-five shooting team the past two seasons. Howard put them into the top 10 on the offensive boards, and no team draws more fouls. All of this renders one of the league's worst turnover rates fairly meaningless.

PELTON'S 2013-14 STATS
W-L: 54-28 (Pythagorean W-L: 55-27)
Offensive Efficiency: 113.2 (4th)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (12th)
Pace Factor: 94.9 (5th)
Highest WARP: James Harden (14.9)

The picture wasn't as rosy on the defensive end, where head coach Kevin McHale wasn't able to establish a title-caliber point-prevention unit. The Rockets mostly played it safe, not forcing many turnovers and not committing many fouls. Howard helped them limit the damage in the lane, but they didn't do a good job running teams off the 3-point line. These minor warts weren't a big deal until it mattered most, when Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge went nuts while helping the Portland Trail Blazers knock out the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. Portland averaged more than nine made 3s per game in the series, which ended on Lillard's iconic trey to win Game 6.



OFFSEASON MOVES


AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez
Trevor Ariza takes over Chandler Parsons' role for the Rockets.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Houston casted for the big fish on the free-agent market and nearly landed Bosh after taking a shot at Carmelo Anthony, either of which would have led to innumerable arguments about whether the Rockets or the Cleveland Cavaliers should be considered title favorites. Morey had to sacrifice depth to make a run at Bosh. But basketball analysts are always pushing bold strategies that can help a team join the championship chase, so it's hard to criticize what happened to the Rockets over the summer.

The worst blow of all was losing Parsons to the Mavericks on a restricted free-agent offer that Morey ultimately decided he could not match. The Rockets could have put off their decision on Parsons by picking up his cheap team option for next season but decided to decline, sending Parsons into what turned out to be a wild marketplace. In the end, the Rockets lost Parsons, Anthony and Bosh. In following the path he took, Morey was basically saying Parsons cannot be the third player on a title contender, and the metrics suggest he could be right. Dallas is sure Parsons can become more than he was in Houston. It's an expensive belief, as Morey realized, and by allowing Parsons to walk, he's left Houston in a good position.

INSIDER'S PLAYER PROFILES


Check out Insider's player scouting reports and '14-15 stat projections for the Rockets roster. Player Profiles

Harden and Howard are still around, and free-agent signee Trevor Ariza was an excellent pickup. Patrick Beverley is one of the best defensive guards in the league and is the rare point guard who can augment a ball dominator like Harden. Terrence Jones would have been pushed to the bench or traded had Houston landed Bosh, but he's an emerging player at the 4. The Rockets also added some toughness to the roster in Jeff Adrien and Joey Dorsey.

The losses of Lin and Asik leave the Rockets with an inexperienced bench, but there is upside in late-season sensation Troy Daniels, big man Donatas Motiejunas and second-year point guard Isaiah Canaan. Daniels, Canaan and wing candidate Robert Covington all played heavy minutes last season for Houston's D-League affiliate, the thrill-a-minute Rio Grande Valley Vipers. If they all contribute to boost the Rockets' bench, teams will be falling over themselves to emulate Houston's development model.



2014-15 OUTLOOK


Bill Baptist/NBAE/Getty Images
Will recent draft picks Clint Capela and Nick Johnson contribute this season?
SCHOENE approves. The Rockets will again be an elite shooting team and will probably again draw more fouls than anyone. They have a mix of youth and experience, ranking 17th in projected average age, which is a good spot for a contender. After heavy turnover of personnel over the past couple seasons, two-thirds of last season's minutes return for the 2014-15 campaign, and much of the court time freed up will be taken by players already in the organization. Continuity helps, and now that Morey is well into his makeover of the organization, the Rockets are going to have that now, as well.

PELTON'S 2014-15 PROJECTIONS
Projected Offensive Rating: 111.4 (4th)
Projected Defensive Rating: 107.2 (10th)
SCHOENE Projected Record: 53-29
Real Plus-Minus Projected Record: 49-33

For the Rockets, it's best to focus on what they have, not what they tried to be, since, as constructed, they forecast to be a top-five offensive team and a top-10 club on the defensive end. Houston might not enter into the title conversation this season, but it is on the fringe of it, and with long-term flexibility reserved, Morey can push for another impact acquisition next year. Was he too bold? Hardly, and given a chance, Morey will be bold again and remain so until the Rockets win a championship.

ESPN Forecast: 49-33, 3rd in Southwest, 7th in Western Conference

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/prev...rockets-player-profiles?ex_cid=espnapi_public

Spoiler

Houston Rockets: 2014-15 roster
Bradford Doolittle [ARCHIVE]

ESPN Insider | October 15, 2014


GO TO: PROJECTED STARTERS RESERVES

Here are our player scouting reports and 2014-15 projections for the Houston Rockets. (Note: Kevin Pelton's stat projections are for players expected to play 250 or more minutes in '14-15.)

PROJECTED STARTERS

PATRICK BEVERLEY, PG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
11.0
3.5
3.5
.522
5.7


Scouting report
+ Atypical point guard with good catch-and-shoot skills to space floor.
+ Excellent on-ball defender and gets a lot of steals.
+ Does not create much offense for himself or others.

Analysis

Patrick Beverley is far from a perfect point guard, but he might well be the perfect point guard for the Rockets. Beverley initiates little of Houston's half-court offense, so it's imperative that he keeps his turnovers down and scores efficiently with his opportunities. Check and check. He's a league-average 3-point shooter, though according to Synergy, he's in the 98th percentile on unguarded looks. That means you have to commit a man to him when he's spotting up, or he will burn you. Beverley won't beat you one-on-one, but he does run a capable pick-and-roll set.

Beverley really stands out on the defensive end, where he was named second-team All-Defense last season. He's a dogged on-ball defender who bothers even high-level opposing guards and racks up a high percentage of steals. His ability to play off the ball on offense -- while handling point guard responsibilities on defense -- makes Beverley an ideal fit to pair with James Harden. As a result, Beverley ranked among the league leaders with a plus-4.4 RPM (real plus/minus) last season. Since Jeremy Lin is now with the Los Angeles Lakers, Beverley's next test may be to take on more of the offense.


JAMES HARDEN, SG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
26.2
4.8
6.0
.700
17.8


Scouting report
+ Super-efficient perimeter scorer with a knack for high-percentage play.
+ Plays deliberately and under control to post elite foul-drawing rates.
+ Indifferent defense has become increasingly problematic.

Analysis

James Harden rates as the best shooting guard in the NBA, and he was awarded as such last season by being named to the All-NBA First Team. He also finished fifth in the MVP balloting. Despite all the decorations, the shine is off Harden just a bit after he struggled during Houston's first-round defeat to Portland. Harden averaged 26.8 PPG, but needed 44 minutes and 22 shots per game to get there while hitting less than 30 percent from deep. His defense, as usual, was porous. One season after Harden was a league darling, he was getting hammered for dominating the ball and taking time off on most defensive possessions.

Say what you will, but Harden remained one of the most efficient scorers in the league during the 2013-14 regular season, posting a 60-plus true shooting percentage for a third straight season. He draws fouls as well as anyone in the league with his probing, jab-stepping style, and demonstrates efficient shot selection. His assist rate is solid, perhaps not great for a player who handles the ball so much, and his turnover rate is high for a shooting guard. Any team in the NBA would love to have him, matador defense or no. His defensive RPM last season was minus-2.6. His play-by-play metrics from Synergy don't look that bad, except against isolations, and perhaps it's Harden getting burned on those plays that stands out in our minds.


TREVOR ARIZA, SG/SF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
14.4
6.2
2.6
.553
7.7


Scouting report
+ Coming off career season in 3-point shooting, but is consistently good from the corners.
+ Good wing rebounder and posts high steal rates annually.
+ Good fit for Houston's up-tempo style, and low-volume usage slots well with team's primary scorers.

Analysis

Trevor Ariza is not Chandler Parsons, and for a while, that might be the only thing Rockets fans think about when they see Ariza in a Houston uniform. Ariza was the contingency signing for Houston after Parsons received his huge offer sheet from Dallas that the Rockets ultimately decided they could not match. It's a nice recovery from a potentially disastrous situation. First, there is the little fact that Ariza was a measurably better player last season. He used fewer possessions, but had 35 more points in true shooting percentage. He was much better on the boards on both ends and had more steals. Ariza shot 41 percent on 3s; Parsons shot 37 percent. The bottom line: Ariza's 9.1 WARP ranked 28th in the league; Parsons' 5.5 WARP was 56th. All this makes Ariza's signing, for roughly $6 million less than Parsons per season, seem like a genius stroke.

The flip side of this is that Parsons is three years younger, and his RPM last season was plus-2.1, suggesting that whatever he was doing, it was helping the Rockets win. Ariza is only 29 this season, but he'll be old for a wing by the time his four-year deal is up, and his athletic indicators have been on the wane ever so slightly. He shot the ball very well last season, but it was a career season in that regard, the only time he's shot the 3-ball significantly better than the league average. During his first stint with the Rockets, Ariza was just 24 and taking a shot at being an alpha player. It didn't work. He wasn't efficient at that level of usage. He seems well-positioned to do for the Rockets what Parsons did last season, but it's not a sure bet. And it's unlikely that, going forward, there will be many seasons when we can say Ariza was the better player.


TERRENCE JONES, PF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
12.0
6.7
1.4
.537
5.7


Scouting report
+ Developing 3-point stroke remains streaky.
+ High-level finisher around rim.
+ Mixed bag on defense; needs to improve to keep earning more minutes.

Analysis

So as we all know now, the Rockets missed out on a chance to give Chris Bosh a gazillion dollars. That's the bad news. The good news is that they still have Terrence Jones. How good is that news? Well, let's compare age-22 seasons. For Jones, it was his second NBA season, while Bosh was on his fourth campaign. Bosh's usage rate was 8.4 percent higher. They both had a true shooting percentage of exactly 57.7. Jones had a better block rate and a lower turnover rate. Bosh is better overall, but we already know that Jones fits with the Rockets, and we don't yet know how good he can become.

Jones still doesn't have confidence as a 3-point shooter. After taking 101 3s during the 2013-14 regular season, he attempted just one in 138 minutes against Portland in the playoffs. He also lost his starting spot after LaMarcus Aldridge started to go bonkers for Portland. Jones has good shot-block rates for a player at the 4, especially since he has Dwight Howard to protect the rim. Jones' on-ball metrics per Synergy put him in the 64th percentile. Still, his defensive RPM has been minus-1.5 in both of his pro seasons. His rebound rate is merely average for a 4. Rebounding, defense and 3-point shooting are the traits the Rockets need from their power forwards. If Jones makes a leap in those areas, Rockets fans will be glad they didn't spend all that money on Chris Bosh.


DWIGHT HOWARD, C
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
18.4
11.6
1.8
.613
11.0


Scouting report
+ Remains one of league's strongest players and premier interior performers.
+ Defensive impact still considerable, but not what it was at peak.
+ Improved as a foul shooter last season, but still shaky.

Analysis

Freed from his discomfort at being a Laker, Dwight Howard posted a very good first season for the Rockets. He finished 19th in the league in WARP, up one place from his season in L.A. His per-game averages were near career levels. He played in the All-Star Game, though he did not make the All-NBA First Team (Joakim Noah took his spot there) and he didn't earn an MVP vote. He finished eighth in the Defensive Player of the Year balloting. The aforementioned WARP total was less than half of his best season in Orlando. After two seasons of this, we kind of have to assume that this is Howard, and the Orlando version isn't coming back.

Howard's athleticism doesn't blow you away the way it once did, though his otherworldly strength still does. The strength keeps his foul-drawing rate high and his scoring around the basket efficient. It keeps his rebound rates elite, if not what they once were. His defensive impact, per RPM, is still elite but, again, not what it was. He was at plus-4.7 last season. (The three seasons before that: 7.2, 7.4 and 6.3.) He also missed 11 games and played about 700 fewer minutes than he did at his peak. Is this simply the new Howard? It's up to him to prove otherwise. Even if it is, it's not such a bad thing.


TROY DANIELS, SG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
4.0
1.1
0.4
.472
1.0


Scouting report
+ Record-setting 3-point shooter in D-League.
+ Undaunted approach with will to take big shots.
+ Defensive tweener who will have to prove himself on that end.

Analysis

Troy Daniels was one of a trio of Rio Grande Valley Vipers hoping to parlay their experience with Houston's high-octane D-League affiliate into a lasting role with the big club. Unlike Isaiah Canaan and Robert Covington, Daniels has already experienced some of the NBA spotlight. After putting up 21.5 PPG while setting a D-League record for 3s, Daniels found himself thrust into action during the Rockets' first-round playoff series against Portland, hitting a game-winning 3 in just his sixth NBA game. He ended up hitting 8-of-15 from deep in the series.

SCHOENE's rational outlook sees a league-average deep shooter and low-volume scorer who does most of his damage behind the arc. As for defense, he's undersized for an off guard, and there wasn't much defense being played in Viper games. The postseason is history, so Daniels will have to prove himself again, with plenty of backcourt competition like Canaan, Ish Smith, Nick Johnson and veteran Jason Terry.


FRANCISCO GARCIA, SG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
2.3
0.8
0.5
.433
0.3


Scouting report
+ Game is now primary as a spot-up shooter, though efficiency is just average.
+ Long, disruptive wing defender with diminishing athleticism.
+ Adds veteran presence to a young bench.

Analysis

The Rockets liked what they saw from veteran swingman Francisco Garcia enough last season to re-sign the nine-year pro to a one-year deal in the offseason. Garcia has increasingly become a 3-point specialist, with a usage rate that has plummeted to the level of a stone-handed center, and about two-thirds of his shots now come from behind the arc. He's a league-average shooter, but in a good season he does a little better than that.

At 33, Garcia has lost quite a bit athletically, but his defensive RPM has been neutral or better each of the last three seasons. Garcia has excellent length and a long reach, resulting in above-average steal and block rates for his position. Garcia had some ankle trouble while playing for the Dominican Republic during the FIBA World Cup, but the problem isn't expected to linger. Garcia will try to fend off Troy Daniels and Robert Covington for the big-minute reserve roles on the wings.


DONATAS MOTIEJUNAS, PF/C
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
6.1
3.4
0.6
.436
0.6


Scouting report
+ Face-up big with length advantages against most defenders; he struggled with consistency on his shot.
+ Below-average percentages across the board in his floor game.
+ So-so defender, gets burned in space.

Analysis

The jury is still out on Donatas Motiejunas, who has posted two below-replacement seasons after coming over from Europe. He better win over some observers this season, especially Rockets coach Kevin McHale, because with Omer Asik now in New Orleans, Motiejunas will be on the spot in the key role of backing up Dwight Howard. Motiejunas is a very different kind of player from Asik. About a quarter of the possessions Motiejunas has used in the NBA have been on 3-pointers, but he's well under 30 percent in two seasons.

A lot hinges on his 3-point shooting because it provides a counterpoint for Howard, and it's what Motiejunas does best. He is just OK in the post and isn't a great passer, and spends most of his time facing up anyway. On defense, he's a below-average shot-blocker and rebounder who struggles to defend in space. Motiejunas is young, and more confident than he probably ought to be, so this is a big season for him.


JASON TERRY, SG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
4.5
1.0
1.2
.445
0.6


Scouting report
+ Remains a solid deep-shooting threat.
+ Game inside the arc has deteriorated.
+ Not a defensive factor at this juncture.

Analysis

Minus Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, the Rockets' bench was looking awfully young, so late in the offseason GM Daryl Morey sent Alonzo Gee and other considerations to Sacramento for Jason Terry. Terry has long been one of the NBA's great bench scorers and was the 2008-09 Sixth Man of the Year. That was a long time ago, however, and last season for the Nets and Kings, Terry looked very much like a guy with 15 NBA seasons under his belt. Terry can still stroke it from deep, but his usage rate has fallen by 9 percent in two seasons, and last season he made just 33 percent of his shots inside the arc. He's not a defensive factor, but maybe Terry has one more run left in him for a contender. Or, with just one year left on his contract, he's at the finish line. Either way, it's been a great career for JET.


ISAIAH CANAAN, PG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
2.1
0.5
0.7
.476
0.5


Scouting report
+ Prolific 3-point scorer.
+ Efficient pick-and-roll operator.
+ Creates high volume of offense, getting his own shot and setting up others.

Analysis

The Rockets nabbed Isaiah Canaan with the fourth pick of the second round last year, then let him spend much of his rookie season at Rio Grande Valley of the D-League, where Houston prospects go to get minutes and to be drilled in many of the same systems run by the big club. Canaan put up big numbers in the developmental circuit, scoring 21.8 PPG, handing out 8.2 APG and doing all with an impressive 59.3 true shooting percentage. Canaan, at 6-foot-1, has an opportunity to fill the spot vacated by Lin and offer an offensive counterpart to the defense-minded Beverley.

Canaan is a prolific 3-point scorer, hitting 37 percent from deep for Rio Grande Valley and 42 percent over four years at Murray State. He's an adept pick-and-roll point guard who ranked in the 88th percentile in the D-League on pick-and-roll sets, per Synergy. On defense, he's not Beverley, but there's nothing to suggest he'll be a sieve. SCHOENE likes Canaan, forecasting above-replacement production (with Patty Mills as his top comparable). If that turns out to be true, score another one for Houston's innovative development model.


CLINT CAPELA, PF/C
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
0.0
0.0
0.0
.497
--


Scouting report
+ Impact shot-blocker
+ Good rebounder who will have to adapt to physical NBA style.
+ Raw offensively; will primarily be limited to dunks early in career.

Analysis

Clint Capela was a bit of a star in SCHOENE's translations for this year's draft class, so it's appropriate he ended up with the analytics-friendly Rockets. Capela is long, athletic and raw. You hear the name Serge Ibaka floated, but that's down the line, if he ever gets there. Capela projects as an impact shot-blocker right off the bat, and should dunk a high percentage of his limited opportunities. He'll likely see a lot of time at Rio Grande Valley, learning to develop his offensive game and cut down on turnovers. There is nothing but upside in the selection of Capela.


NICK JOHNSON, SG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
2.7
0.8
0.8
.364
-0.6


Scouting report
+ Superior, high-flying athlete
+ Mismatch between body type and ideal position
+ Hardworking and effective defender

Analysis

There's a lot to like about Nick Johnson as the No. 42 pick in June. He's a high flyer at 6-3, sure to earn a spot on the highlight reel pretty much any time he gets extended action. He's a decent shooter, though not a knockdown guy, and despite his superior athleticism he didn't put up great foul-drawing rates at Arizona. SCHOENE's forecast reflects this scouting report; there just isn't an apparent tent pole to prop up his statistical profile.

Johnson is a solid pick-and-roll operator, getting looks for himself and teammates equally well. He's not the kind of ball handler who projects to eventually move to the point, which makes his size a problem. Johnson is an athlete, though, and a hard-nosed defender, and that's something to build on. He'll get a chance to develop these attributes as part of the Rockets' system in Rio Grande Valley.


ISH SMITH, PG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
1.5
0.6
0.9
.420
0.1


Scouting report
+ Jet-quick point guard who can push the tempo of any game.
+ Low-volume stat line with bottom-level efficiency.
+ Solid on-ball defender who leverages quickness to get high rate of steals.

Analysis

Ish Smith has carried the label of "lightning fast" so long now that it's hard to type the words without getting drowsy. He has yet to put that trait to productive use on offense in the NBA. His volume is low, his true shooting percentage couldn't find league average with a flashlight, and his turnover rate is too high. Smith's quickness does come into play on the defensive end, where he gets a high rate of steals and has good indicators on the ball, especially against the pick-and-roll. His one offensive strength last season was an efficient rating on isolation sets, per Synergy. The problem for Smith is that usually there are all those pesky other players on the floor.


JEFF ADRIEN, SF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
3.0
2.6
0.4
.458
0.6


Scouting report
+ Undersized big man with limited offensive utility.
+ One of league's most prolific percentage rebounders.
+ Quick leaper who blocks lots of shots, but size limits on-ball defense.

Analysis

Because he's 6-7 with a 7-footer's game, Jeff Adrien won't ever be more than a niche player. Yet in the right role, Adrien is, in the parlance of Tom Thibodeau, a player you can win with. His skill set is clearly defined and consistent. He's a tremendous percentage rebounder, with a stout, active body and long arms. Last season, he grabbed 11.8 percent of opposing misses, and that was right on target with his career rate. His defensive rebound percentage was more than 25 percent.

The same traits that make him an effective rebounder also result in high block rates for a player his size; he's a quick leaper on top of everything else. His offensive repertoire is limited beyond putbacks. His help defense is good enough to keep his real plus/minus on that end positive, but his on-ball metrics per Synergy slotted him in just the 12th percentile. The Rockets gave him a guaranteed deal for this season for the veteran's minimum, and it's an appropriate deal for both sides.


TARIK BLACK, PF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
0.0
0.0
0.0
.362
---


Scouting report
+ Athletic rebounder and shot-blocker.
+ Efficient finisher at the basket.
+ Lacks offensive skill.

Analysis

The Rockets added undrafted Kansas big man Tarik Black late in the offseason as a possible defensive option in the frontcourt. Black seemed to regress during his college career, which began at Memphis, and played just 13.5 minutes per game as a senior on a talented Kansas Jayhawks squad. He's a long, active athlete whose block percentages declined precipitously between his sophomore and junior years. His rebound rates were good, though, and he dunked about everything he could get his hands on off the offensive glass and as a cutter, shooting 69 percent last season for KU. He was a 55.5 percent career foul shooter in college, and has a low usage rate and high turnover rate. These are the traits of a player more athletic than skilled.


KOSTAS PAPANIKOLAOU, SF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
2.2
1.3
0.5
.400
-0.2


Scouting report
+ Glue player with a winning pedigree overseas.
+ Good athlete and long with defensive upside.
+ Inconsistent 3-point stroke that needs work.

Analysis

The Rockets enticed Kostas Papanikolaou to move stateside with a startling two-year deal for $9.4 million, though it's not all guaranteed. Papanikolaou has been a glue player on some of the very best teams in Europe, first with Olympiakos and last season with FC Barcelona, where he teamed with fellow Rockets newcomer Joey Dorsey. Papanikolaou is a good athlete, runs the floor well, and may be the rare European defensive stopper. His 3-point shooting has been up and down, so that will be an area of focus. SCHOENE isn't real excited about Papanikolaou, seeing him with average percentages across the board and with a very low usage rate.


ROBERT COVINGTON, SF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
0.0
0.0
0.0
.526
---


Scouting report
+ Long combo forward with premier shooting skills.
+ Uncertain defensive profile with build that makes him vulnerable in the lane.
+ Has promising athletic indicators in terms of blocks and steals.

Analysis

The Rockets picked up undrafted Robert Covington last season and proceeded to put him on the Rio Grande Valley shuttle. Since he is 6-9 and has a lethal 3-point stroke, they have high hopes he can improve his body and become a 3-and-D performer. Covington was a 42 percent 3-point shooter at Tennessee State and hit 39 percent in 42 D-League games last season. He did more than that, though, averaging 23.2 PPG and 9.2 RPG for the Vipers, all with high volume and high efficiency.

How that translates to the NBA is tough to tell, as is the question of how much opportunity he has on the deep Rockets. On defense, he had so-so D-League metrics, but he destroyed in the post. SCHOENE sees him posting top steal percentages and solid block rates. He can shoot, but his defense will have to punch his ticket to the NBA.


JOSH POWELL, PF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
0.0
0.0
0.0
.318
---


Scouting report
+ Face-up big man
+ Low-volume, low-efficiency scorer
+ Turns the ball over too much

Analysis

Josh Powell has a spotless, seven-year record in the NBA. He's been below replacement level in WARP in each of those seasons, a stretch interrupted by a two-year stint overseas before last season. He's also been in the red in RPM on both ends of the floor in all seven of those seasons. He must do something well to keep getting work, right? OK, here's something: He is a pretty good face-up shooter from midrange. His one-year deal with Houston is nonguaranteed.


JOEY DORSEY, PF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
PPG
RPG
APG
WIN %
WARP
Player card »
1.8
2.2
0.3
.379
-0.4


Scouting report
+ Physical, defense-minded banger and rebounder.
+ Plays bigger than his 6-8 frame.
+ Limited offensive arsenal but finishes with very high efficiency at the basket.

Analysis

Look, it's Joey Dorsey. Derrick Rose's old teammate at Memphis hasn't played in the NBA since 2010-11, but he's played just about everywhere else. Most recently, he was with FC Barcelona in the Euroleague, where he averaged 5.1 points and 5.5 boards and shot 70 percent from the floor. In other words, not much has changed since we last saw Dorsey in the States. He'll provide a banging, defensive presence and a tool kit that, if it came in a package 3 or 4 inches taller, would have made Dorsey a lot of money. Houston gave him a two-year, $2 million deal, all guaranteed, and he'll battle Jeff Adrien and Donatas Motiejunas for backup minutes in the frontcourt.

 

Interesting... how are the Rockets "reeling" from that loss. Also, how is "charismatic" relevant? Also - how does he seem primed for more - based on contract size?

Seems like a sensationalist take to me.

 

** ESPN Forcast : Rockets will be a top-five offensive team and a top-10 club on the defensive end **

ESPN Forecast: 49-33, 3rd in Southwest, 7th in Western Conference

------------------------------------

LOL, I like their logic here.

 

I thought the article was pretty balanced, overall. The Parsons mention was a little confusing. I guess the writer meant "reeling" more psychologically and/or from the perspective of the fans than anything because he seemed to agree with Morey that Parsons isn't 3rd star material.

 

Chandler Parsons is offended.

 

I had the same thought.

How can they project us to be a team that is top 10 on both ends and then have us 7th in the West? Generally from year to year there are only a handful of teams who end up top 10 on offense and defense and they are just about always the only group of teams considered title contenders.

 

Simple. Because the West is so stacked(and the East is so pathetic) that you can have a Top 10 offense and defense and still be that far down in the standings.

 

lo

Yes and from that article I read the overview and the conclusion was Rockets should be about the same as last year. 4th seed is elite.

 

Eh. The west has been stacked for a while now. The teams that do it are nearly always a top 4 seed in their conference

Teams in the top 10 of both in the last handful of years. Conference seed in (). Finals teams bolded

2014 - SA(1), OKC(2), LAC(3), TOR(3)

Miami and Houston barely missed(11th and 12th in DEF)

2013 - SA(2), MIA(1), LAC(4), OKC(1)

2012 - OKC(2), CHI(1), MIA(2), IND(3)

2011 - ORL(4), MIA(2), LA(2), DAL(3)

I'm sure if you keep going back you will eventually find some outliers of teams in the top 10 of both who weren't at the very least a 4 seed, but it seems obvious that if you are that good on both ends of the floor you are going to be a top seed and one of only a few teams that has a very good chance at the finals.

 

Sounds about right. Wouldn't be surprised if we slipped into 9th seed western conference.

 

Top 5 offense and top 10 defense? But only 7th in the West?

Year after year, being both top 10 in offense and defense is one of the marks of a finals contender.

 

Totally missed it on Papa K.

A dangerous team that needs a major 4. That is all.

 

Our defense improves quite a bit and we drop 3 spots ???

 

Translation - They like everyone else better. Historically this tends not to happen, but on paper there looks to be a lot of really awesome teams in the west.

 

It almost feels like they aren't watching the same stuff we are. DMo has yet to show a consistent perimeter shot, but seems like he is much more effective in the post (though certainly could finish better there).