ESPN Insider: Expansion Draft - Interesting Info

Can the Bobcats save the NBA?

By Chad Ford, NBA Insider
Thursday, November 6 Updated: November 7 9:03 AM ET

We may be 360 days away from the Charlotte Bobcats first real game in the NBA.

But for the 29 NBA teams already in the league, there is an intense interest, bordering on obsession, with the league's 30th franchise.

At a time of year when teams are already dispatching armies of scouts in search of the next great draft prospect, the Bobcats armies aren't just hanging around college campuses and international arenas.

Bobcats GM Bernie Bickerstaff and the rest of his scouts are coming to an arena near you. Their goal? Find the perfect player to pluck off another team's squad during the 2004 NBA Expansion Draft.

The Expansion Draft, which will take place sometime between the end of the NBA Finals and the 2004 NBA Draft, allows the Bobcats to select players from the existing teams in the NBA.

While the league is still finalizing all the rules of the expansion draft (teams expect an official memo from the league to come sometime this month) many of the rules are already in the collective bargaining agreement. Insider has talked to league and team sources to get a handle on what is likely to take place on expansion draft night. While things are always subject to change and interpretation, here's what is expected to take place.

Teams are allowed to protect eight players. If they have less than eight players under contract, they must leave at least one player unprotected.

The prospect of losing a critical player in the expansion draft has some teams wringing their hands. Teams with a deep reserve of young players like the Grizzlies, Pacers and Bucks are in danger of losing a prospect they'd prefer to keep around.

The Bobcats are allowed to select a maximum of one player from each team. They must select a minimum of 14 players overall and can take a maximum of 29.

To many GMs, the expansion draft is a very rare opportunity. The Bobcats will eventually have a projected $29.7 million salary cap next season (two-thirds of an estimated $45 million cap), but it doesn't apply to the actual expansion draft. The Bobcats are free to select as many contracts as they like. If new owner Bob Johnson wants to spend $50 million in salaries in the draft, the league will let him.

Combine that with a little known rule in the collective bargaining agreement that allows expansion teams to get salaries off their cap early by waiving players selected in the expansion draft before the first day of the regular season and many GMs believe that a one-time large loop hole has been blown through the league's strict cap rules.

For you hardcore fans out there, here's the rule:


The Salary of any player selected by an Expansion Team in an expansion draft and terminated in accordance with the NBA waiver procedure before the first day of the Expansion Team's first Season shall not be included in the Expansion Team's Team Salary, except, to the extent such Salary is paid, for purposes of determining whether the Expansion Team has satisfied its Minimum Team Salary obligation for such Season. (Article VII, Section 4)

Teams will try to capitalize on it. The Wizards, for example, could offer their first-round pick and three million dollars (the maximum allowed by the collective bargaining agreement) to the Bobcats if the team selects Christian Laettner in the expansion draft.

If the Bobcats bite, Laettner's $6.2 million salary for next season comes off the books in Washington, giving the Wizards roughly $10 million in cap room for Ernie Grunfeld to use in free agency. The Bobcats can then waive Laettner and preserve all of their cap space for free agency as well.

Is cap room really worth cash and a pick?

"Absolutely," one Eastern Conference GM told Insider. "A pick, a player and three million in cash for five or six million or more in cap room? That's priceless. Ed Tapscott will be fielding a ton of offers the next few months."

In essence, now that the regular season has begun, the Bobcats are suddenly holding all of the power. So far, executive vice president Ed Tapscott and Bickerstaff aren't showing their hand.

There are numerous ways a team can go in an expansion draft. Most of it depends on what Johnson is willing to spend.

The All-Star Approach

If he's a Mark Cuban-type owner, they could select from a plethora of stars who are expected to be left unprotected. Most teams leave players with huge contracts unprotected thinking that an expansion team won't want to spend all of their cash at once.

However, if Johnson felt the urge to blow $50 or $60 million from the get go and put a competitive team on the floor -- he'll have the opportunity. An Insider analysis of each team's roster, and the eight players they would likely protect, left players like this unprotected: Antawn Jamison, Bonzi Wells, Tim Thomas, Brian Grant, Eddie Jones, Penny Hardaway, James Posey, Raef LaFrentz, Marcus Camby, Grant Hill and Jerome James.

Drafting an all-star team is the most unlikely scenario. Teams leave players like this unprotected because they believe that a new team wouldn't want the burdens of expensive, long-term contracts. Besides, the general feeling around the league is that Johnson is much more conservative with his money than guys like Mark Cuban and Paul Allen. They don't expect him to break the bank to field a competitive team in Charlotte.

New GM Bernie Bickerstaff insinuated the same thing on Wednesday. "We want to build through the draft and go young," Bickerstaff said. "It's a marathon. We won't be pressured. We hope to get guys who will become big names. . .We want young, hungry competitive guys who want to prove what they can do in the NBA. We will give them the chance to show the world what they can do. "

The Less is More Philosophy

The opposite (and more likely) scenario, according to some league execs, is for the Bobcats to actually take no salaries back in return. How do they do that?

While unrestricted free agents aren't eligible for the draft, restricted free agents are. However, the restricted free agents become unrestricted if the Bobcats draft them. While the Bobcats would still retain their Bird Rights to the player (the ability to exceed the salary cap to re-sign a player with three or more years in the league), they would not have the matching rights that most teams have with restricted free agents.


Theoretically, the Bobcats could draft a team of: Chris Mihm, Jamison Brewer, Bobby Simmons, Jannero Pargo, Joel Przybilla, Trenton Hassell, Tamar Slay, Britton Johnsen, Robert Archibald, Josh Moore, Mike Wilks, James Lang, Richie Frahm and Steve Blake, waive all of them and pay virtually nothing.

That approach gives the Bobcats their full $29 million (minus a $6.38 million in cap holds for the fourth pick in the draft and 10 other minimum roster spots) to work with in the free-agent market.

For all of you Kobe to Charlotte fans out there, this is the scenario where the Bobcats could, theoretically, offer Kobe a max deal to bolt L.A. and head back to Charlotte where he was drafted seven season to go.

However, the problem with that scenario is well known in places like Denver and Salt Lake. Top free agents usually balk at signing with teams that don't have a chance to compete. The chances of Kobe or any other top-flight free-agent signing on in Charlotte are slim. That's why another approach may be warranted.

Let's Make a Deal

What teams are hoping is that the Bobcats take the middle road. There are as many as eight teams that have a player the Bobcats might realistically consider taking if a team offers compensation in the form of a draft pick and cash in return.

Mock Expansion Draft
1. Chucky Atkins
2. Christian Laettner
3. Bo Outlaw
4. Tony Battie
5. Jahidi White
6. Eddie Robinson
7. Cliff Robinson
8. Bruce Bowen
9. Jannero Pargo
10. Mo Williams
11. Tamar Slay
12. Britton Johnsen
13. Trenton Hassell
14. Chris Mihm

Here's a hypothetical scenario (see table on right) of how things could pan out if the Bobcats decide that stockpiling first-round picks is the way to build the franchise.

The first eight players would all be part of larger deals that should, in each instance, land the Bobcats a future first-round pick and three million in cash.

The total salaries the Bobcats would pick up would be $46.2 million in 2004, and $16.9 million in 2005. The Bobcats would receive $24 million in cash to offset the $46.2 million number. Because of the rules governing expansion teams, the Bobcats could then turn around and waive all eight players. Combine that with the last six players, all of whom have no guaranteed money due in 2004, and the Bobcats could walk away with eight extra first-round picks and all of their cap room for just a smidgen over $30 million.

That's a pretty serious bargain. Would the Pistons, Wizards, Grizzlies, Celtics, Suns, Bulls, Warriors and Spurs be willing to send cash and picks the Bobcats' way?

Probably. The move is a slam dunk for the Pistons, Wizards and Spurs. The Pistons are trying to get far enough under the cap to either re-sign Mehmet Okur or to make a major play in the free-agent market. If they could move Atkins, the Pistons are looking at $10 million in cap space next summer. Ditto for the Wizards. They cleared about $5.9 million by moving Jahidi White to the Suns on Wednesday. If they can get Laettner off the books as well, the team is looking at $10 to $11 million in room.

The Spurs have the biggest incentive. San Antonio could theoretically clear around $15 million in cap room if they waived their free agents and got the Bobcats to take Bowen. That would give them enough to make a serious run at Kobe next summer.

The other teams don't experience such dramatic effects, but trading a pick and cash for the cap room still makes sense. The Grizzlies, by losing Outlaw, could get around $6 million under the cap. The Warriors could get nearly $7 million under by convincing the Bobcats to take Robinson. The Suns can move out of luxury-tax land if the Bobcats would take White off their hands. The Celtics could get more luxury-tax breathing room to sign a free agent with their mid-level exception. And the Bulls would get more room re-sign their own free agents.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. There will also be scenarios where a team might give the Bobcats a pick or cash not to select a player they had to leave unprotected.

Anyway you slice it, for the next eight months the Bobcats are in an enviable position. With a clean cap, an escalating cap (two-thirds this season, three-fourths in 2005, a full cap in 2006) the potential to horde a massive amount of first-round picks, a good first-round pick this season and no restrictions on how high they can pick in 2005, the Bobcats have a luxury that none of the other 29 teams in the league have ever had -- the ability to build a team from scratch under the new rules of the collective bargaining agreement.

Teams are still suffering from bad deals they made before the new CBA kicked in. Can the Bobcats learn from their mistakes and help out a few other franchises along the way? You'll have to wait seven months to find out.

 

I thought this part of the article was particularly interesting in regards to the Rockets. It seems the above scenario is exactly the scenario the Rockets were in with the Jazz and Glen Rice. We shipped off a 1st round pick and Rice for the TRADE EXCEPTION which gives us the ability to make more roster moves. It is not as good as being under the cap (like the Wiz would be in their scenario), but it gives us flexability in trade manuevers. Clearly this scenario is something MANY GMs are looking at. Yet it seemed that a ton of people on the BB were all upset at the Rockets for making this move.

It will be really interesting to see how many overpaid players for draft picks the Bobcats will select!

Can we promise to give the Bobcats a 2nd round pick in 2025 if they take Moochie off our hands?

 

Exactly! It really is kind of a bizarre notion!

I have to tell ya, if I am the Bobcats I load up on 1st round picks to get the young guys as the core foundation of the team and save money to get a few DECENT veteran FAs to lead the team. I don't keep any of those overpaid players. Just select them and cut them.