[ESPN Insider] Buyers Guide: Chris Bosh

FYI

Buyer's Guide: Chris Bosh
By Tom Haberstroh
Special to ESPN Insider
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=5290126


For the next few weeks, ESPN Insider will be analyzing NBA free agents not named LeBron James (we covered him pretty extensively a few weeks ago, and there's even more coming every day on the LeBron Tracker) to try and get a handle on what they're really worth to the teams chasing them this summer. We begin today with Toronto big man Chris Bosh.


OVERALL ASSESSMENT

Chris Bosh would be the grand prize in most offseasons, but the tantalizing prospect of his partnering up with Dwyane Wade or LeBron James suggests he couldn't succeed landing on a team without another superstar. But he can, so long as he goes somewhere with the right type of talent.

Few players can match Bosh's lethal combination of post moves and a legitimate outside shot. He's athletic enough to attack the rim but lacks the overpowering strength that Carlos Boozer or Amare Stoudemire, two other highly coveted free-agent power forwards, use to bulldoze their way to the rack.

Rather than employing brute strength, the 6-foot-10 lefty excels on the block through his virtually unparalleled finesse and creativity. Bosh averaged 1.09 points on his 549 post-ups last season, a rate so remarkably efficient that it topped every big man in the league, according to Synergy Sports Technology. One league executive likened Bosh to classical music, pointing out that, while lacking the "wow" factor of Stoudemire and Dwight Howard, Bosh's quiet effectiveness will please any team more focused on the win column than the highlight reel.


"There's a big difference between soft and having a body to do something about it," the source said. "Bosh has the mentality but just doesn't have the physical capability to impact the game as a bruiser."


Aside from his post moves, Bosh also makes a perfect pick-and-pop candidate. He's one of the few bigs in the NBA with an elite inside-outside game to draw the full attention of his defender. The lefty doesn't have 3-point range, but he's a yearly lock for 45 percent from just inside the arc. If it weren't for Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett, Bosh would garner recognition as the most dangerous shooting big man in the game.


But Bosh is not as stellar on the defensive end. He doesn't have the bulk to match up with centers, but he's long enough to make up for it against power forwards. He lacks the instincts to be an elite shot-blocker, but Bosh will get the nightly block solely based on his athleticism. "He's long and he's in the right position the majority of the time," said one league executive. "I think he's a cut above those other guys [on the free-agent market] defensively."


With a career-high 28.7 usage rate, only seven players in the NBA had more responsibility on offense than Bosh did this past season in Toronto. But while he has demonstrated individual success as the No. 1 option, the optimal scenario would have him paired with a ball-dominant wing or All-Star point guard to create for him.


"Bosh can't be a No. 1 guy," one league executive warned. "If a team's going to be good, Bosh has to be two and a best-case three. I don't see Bosh as a carry-the-mail kind of player. But I don't think any of the power forward free agents are either."


Teams will pay him to raise a championship banner and that will only happen if Bosh has other elite shot-creators that he can complement.


FINDING THE RIGHT FIT

Bosh's stint in Toronto gives his prospective suitors a blueprint to avoid. As a No. 1 option lacking both a premier point guard and a defensive cog in the middle, Bosh never had the tools to lead the Raptors past the postseason fringe. Boozer and Stoudemire have each enjoyed the luxury of playing co-pilot with a Hall of Fame-caliber point guard, but Bosh has yet to experience the benefits of teaming up with an elite playmaker.


"If Bosh played with Steve Nash, I'd probably feel completely different about him," said one league executive. "He needs a guy to put him in the best possible situation to succeed."


“
If Bosh played with Steve Nash, I'd probably feel completely different about him. He needs a guy to put him in the best possible situation to succeed.

” -- NBA Executive

Teams with All-Star point guards in the fold will extract the most value from Bosh. In fact, according to Synergy, Bosh had more success finishing the pick-and-roll than screen virtuoso Stoudemire this past season. Bosh shot a staggering 81.4 percent on field goals resulting from rolls to the rim, a conversion rate only bested by Howard. And keep in mind, that's without an ultra-creative point guard to distract the defense off the screen.


Ideally, Bosh's future team would also feature an athletic shot-blocker who can flank him inside and protect the rim. The 6-10 power forward will surely welcome the opportunity to upgrade from Andrea Bargnani on that end as he has never had a defensively focused partner down low.


The most ideal running mate for Bosh? That would be James. "If Bosh were to play with LeBron, who is both an elite passer and a shock-and-awe athlete," one Western Conference executive imagined, "they'd be a phenomenal pair. They'd be a much better team than LeBron and Amare."


Bosh has the talent, youth and marketability to warrant a max contract but he can't instantly transform a weak team into a title contender like LeBron or Wade could. As we saw with Pau Gasol and Garnett, the team that surrounds the power forward with All-Star talent will leverage his skills the most. In that sense, the Bulls, with a solid young core of players, and the Knicks, in complete rebuilding mode, couldn't be farther apart on the wide spectrum of compatible suitors. The Knicks need an anchor; a player to build around. But the Bulls? That's a different story.


Chicago will make a strong run at both LeBron and D-Wade, of course. But should the Bulls fail to land either guy, Bosh would be a perfect fit. In fact, in one way he'd even be a better option, in that he wouldn't take the ball out of the hands of budding point guard Derrick Rose. Plus, Joakim Noah is exactly the type of big who'd fit perfectly next to Bosh. "If the Bulls threw the kitchen sink at Bosh," the source said, "it would make more sense with the makeup of their team."


And it would be worth every penny.

WHAT HE'S WORTH: Max Contract
WHAT HE'LL GET: Max Contract

GOOD FITS: Bulls, Rockets, Heat
LESS THAN IDEAL: Raptors, Knicks, Clippers, Wizards


Tom Haberstroh is a regular contributer to ESPN Insider. Data is courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology, DraftExpress.com, 82games.com, BasketballValue.com and Hoopdata.com.

 

There is a multi-tab Right Rail Info box I didn't include in the initial post. I will post it here, sorry for the formatting.

##

Chris Bosh, F

AGE: 26
HT: 6-10
WT: 230
WING: 7-3½
VERT: 33 inches

PPG: 24.0
RPG: 10.8
BPG: 1.0
FG% .518
FT% .797

WHAT HE'S WORTH: Max Contract
WHAT HE'LL GET: Max Contract

GOOD FITS: Bulls, Rockets, Heat
LESS THAN IDEAL: Raptors, Knicks, Clippers, Wizards

--

NEXT-LEVEL STATS

PER: 25.1 (4th in NBA)
EWA: 17.1 wins (8th)
Usage Rate: 28.7 percent of team poss. (8th)
Off. Rating: 117 pts per 100 poss. (NBA average: 108)
Def. Rating: 111 pts allowed per 100 (NBA average: 108)
Off. Rebound Rate: 9.9 percent of rebounds while on floor
Def. Rebound Rate: 25.2 percent of rebounds while on floor
Tot. Rebound Rate: 17.7 percent of rebounds while on floor

Adjusted plus/minus: +6.97 (17th)
... indicates the player's Plus-Minus, adjusted to account for both strength of teammates and the opponents on the floor with a player over the course of the season.

--

RELIABILITY RATING - 93

A composite rating that quantifies a player's offensive dependability on a 1 to 100 scale after considering efficiency, shot creation, playing time and clutch performance. LeBron James is a 98, David West is a 75, DeMarre Carroll is a 10.
Component Stat %Rank
CLUTCH 30.9 points per 48 clutch mins 88
USAGE 28.7 percent of team poss. 96
EFFICIENCY 117 points per 100 poss. 90
RUN 36.1 minutes per game 84

--

DEPRECIATION

Career Regular-Season Games: 509
Missed Regular-Season Games: 65
Durability Percentage: 88.7
Injury Concerns: A rarely problematic left knee
Injury Risk: Mild; no severe surgeries or areas of chronic injury.
CAREER SUMMARY

Looking at his body of work, only five other players in NBA history have amassed as many total points and total rebounds as Bosh has through his age 25 season. Still, for all his individual accomplishments, Bosh has yet to advance past the first round of the playoffs in his seven years with Toronto.

 

Bosh can go to Miami, but to get the extra contract year he has to do it via a S&T (versus outright signing with Miami). Miami has nothing of value (contracts+assets) to the Raptors in a S&T so that could be a sticking point.

 

Another thing on Bosh. Bosh was quoted below....

So, what that means is, if LeBron and other FAs "take their time" enjoying the recruiting, perhaps Bosh doesn't wait to "wait around" for them to make up their mind. If a team like Houston can come in and woo Bosh right away, that might make a big difference.

 

Correct, Toronto could net a huge trade exception + Beasley and a late 1st rounder, but from everything I read, the Raptors have NO interest in Beasley. His value is WAY down.