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ESPN: Computer Simulation shows HOU 6% chance at top seed, 88% chance home court advantage

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Mar 10, 2014.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member
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    Who claims the top seed in the West?

    Projections: San Antonio Spurs: 61 percent; Oklahoma City Thunder: 23 percent; L.A. Clippers: 10 percent; Houston Rockets: 6 percent

    Oklahoma City's loss to the Lakers moved San Antonio back into first in the West, and with the Thunder struggling defensively since losing starters Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha (but getting Russell Westbrook back), the Spurs have become heavy favorites to claim the No. 1 seed. If San Antonio stumbles, the Clippers and Rockets still could make a late run.

    Who else gets home court in the West?

    Projections: Oklahoma City Thunder: 96 percent; L.A. Clippers: 95 percent; Houston Rockets: 88 percent; Portland Trail Blazers: 18 percent

    The Thunder are no longer assured home court and in fact the Clippers are now slightly more likely to claim the second seed thanks to a 2-1 edge in the season series with the final game at the Staples Center on April 9. The Clippers and Rockets are the two hottest teams in the West, and the Clippers perform especially well in simulations because their point differential (plus-7.1) is the best in the West. In fact, when adjusted for schedule, the Clippers now rate as the conference's best team, ahead of both San Antonio and Oklahoma City.

    Meanwhile, Portland's 1-3 week has likely doomed the Blazers to the fifth seed. In more than 40 percent of simulations, Portland faces Houston in the first round, and last night's Rockets victory will make it difficult for the Blazers to hold home court in that scenario. The single most likely first-round matchup is Brooklyn-Toronto in the East (51 percent of simulations).

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...roject-how-east-west-playoff-berths-shake-out
     
  2. shortfuse3

    shortfuse3 Member

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    Oh god Portland would not be a good first round match up.
     
  3. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    Never tell me the odds.
     
  4. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Contributing Member

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    Oh, good. The Rockets could never screw up an 88% chance at home court.

    Sincerely,
    The 2012 Rockets' 97% Odds of Making the Playoffs
     
  5. Rip Van Rocket

    Rip Van Rocket Contributing Member

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    I disagree. We've beaten them three times this year. We played poorly for three and half quarters last night and still won. Portland does not want to play the Rockets.
     
  6. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Do they factor in remaining strength of schedule? I'd assume so... and I know the Spurs have a 3 game lead in the loss column ahead of Clippers and Rockets... but they have a harder schedule, imo.
     
  7. mac_got_this

    mac_got_this Member

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    I thought we banned these types of threads since 2012
     
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