Nice writeup and video on our rotation with a focus on our "hands on" pitching coach Brad Arnsberg. Lock if someone beat me to this. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2011/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=6224560
Wandy was probably the best LH pitcher in the NL for 2/3 of last season, problem was the first 1/3 he was the worst. I think Wandy has the potential to be a stud this season and Myers a workhorse. Norris and Happ are the real wild cards, Happ pretty sure he will live up to his #3 status and get you 13-15 wins with a nice ERA but Norris could go either way. If Norris responds then we might have something to talk about come August, if not then Lyles, Hernandez and Abad might see substantial time come the 2nd half of the season.
a fair comparison, but I think that's a much better formula for potential mlb success than nba. it's actually a pretty impressive rotation and about as good as you can ask for with a team with as low as payroll as ours this season. i may be in the minority, but myers worries the hell out of me this year. if we want to contend for the division, he's going to have to match what he did last year, with almost no wiggle room. can he do it? sure, but last year could also have been a massive fluke, and he could just as easily return to the 4+ ERA pitcher that he was for the rest of his career. he is really the key to the season in my opinion. looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out though. could be a fun year. i wish castro didn't go down. there would be a case for optimism at every position on the field if he didn't. i thought barmes was a bum, and my thoughts on him even changed when harold reynolds said the other night that he's his prediction for the surprise steal of the offseason. go stros.
I'd be concerned too. Fluky-low HR/FB ratio, and his fastball has always been garbage. On the bright side, his slider/cutter (not totally sure what it is) was a really good pitch last year, maybe he can sustain that. And his curve's always been good. I think it would be optimistic, but not unrealistic, to expect ~200 innings and an ERA in the high-3s this season. For $10MM/year, that's decent value. But I'd be very surprised if he performs as well as he did last year.
I believe Jerry Crasnick discarded his other article, "Astros' lineup a non-existent bunch". The current rotation, if given the lineup of Astros 5-10 years ago, would put this team in contention for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, they'll put up good ERAs and no run support. At least with the Rockets, things can change quickly by adding just one impact player. With the Astros, where are you going to find enough hitters to do anything?
Thing is, as long as you're smart and willing to spend, it really doesn't take more than a couple years to rebuild a farm system. Obviously the problem is it takes ANOTHER couple years for those guys to be ready for the bigs, but you can always trade blue chippers for good, established players who are getting close to free agency. I think though, it'll be a while before the Astros are ready to be serious contenders. Long enough that now's probably a good time to find a taker for Wandy. And in fact, ANY player on the roster who can net some good prospects. Seriously, what I would do is slash payroll and spend a lot -- like, unprecedented amounts -- on amateur scouting, player development, the draft, and latin prospects. I'm not a 'stros fan, so it's a lot easier for me to say this, obviously.
Hopefully Carlos has a better season than last year. That's what they've started doing since last season. We've still got a way to go, but I like the direction the team is going.
I'll say this, at this time last year who in the right mind would have picked the Padres to push the eventual World Champions until the last day of the regular season? They had little to no offense from anyone not named Adrian Gonzalez and a decent bench. Their pitching was out of this world and it carried them a long way. Stros can make some noise but their pitching and defense has to be elite to get there. Honestly, a middle of the order of Pence, Lee, Wallace and Johnson should be better then what the Padres put out last year on an every day basis. The keys will be the young guys stepping up and Bourn getting back to 2009 form.
