[espn] After Years Of Tanking, The Astros Are Now The Best In Baseball

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-years-of-tanking-the-astros-are-now-the-best-in-baseball/

There’s a surprising new best team in baseball, and it doesn’t reside in Chicago, New York or L.A. Instead, it’s the Houston Astros, who are projected to finish with the majors’ top record according to both FanGraphs.com and FiveThirtyEight’s own Elo ratings. Those are lofty expectations, but if the Astros can meet them, they’ll complete a historic turnaround that few teams in major league history can match.

It’s still early, but the Astros are putting up some dominant numbers this year. Their pitching staff has added an extra strikeout per nine innings compared with 2016 while also increasing their ground ball rate, and those two trends have helped drop Houston’s team-wide ERA by more than a half a run. Much of that improvement stems from the bullpen: Led by the surprising and versatile Chris Devenski, the ’Stros relief staff is on pace to produce several more wins above replacement than they did last year.

And the Astros have improved even more at the plate. So far, Houston has racked up a weighted runs created plus of 118, 19 full points better than it managed last year. Rather than being too dependent on second baseman Jose Altuve, the Astros are now getting offensive contributions throughout the lineup, from shortstop Carlos Correa (144 wRC+) to catcher Brian McCann (114). Last year, only six Astros cleared a wRC+ of 100 (denoting an average performance); this year, 10 Houston players are above that bar.