[ESPN] '5-on-5: What trades would help Harden and the Rockets contend?'

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ts-james-harden-houston-rockets-offseason-nba

Should the Rockets go all-in for a title chase this summer or keep flexibility for 2018? What moves should they make?

Our 5-on-5 crew debates and predicts Houston's offseason.

1. What should the Rockets do?
A. Go all-in this offseason to compete for a championship.
B. Preserve cap space to make a big move in 2018.

Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: B. They can still compete for a championship even without "going all-in." James Harden is a perennial MVP candidate and the surrounding core is young enough to continue blossoming in Mike D'Antoni's system. Plus, if you strike in 2018-19, you have the added benefit of one more year on LeBron's odometer.

Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight/ESPN.com: B. Preserve the space. The landscape could change a bit between now and then. The Rockets had an unbelievable season, but they may need other dimensions to help them stand out as much as they did this season, when they simply decided no one was going to shoot more 3-pointers than them. They may need more of a defensive presence or, if they're truly going all in on this strategy, a rim-protecting big who can also connect from outside -- a role that Ryan Anderson can't realistically fill in the postseason.

Tim MacMahon, ESPN.com: Pounce when the opportunity presents itself to acquire a co-star for James Harden. The easier path is probably preserving cap space for the summer of 2018, but general manager Daryl Morey will surely do his due diligence in the trade market this offseason. If he can't find a home run, there's nothing wrong with returning the core of a 55-win team and maintaining future flexibility.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: If the Warriors get significantly weaker during the summer -- several of their players will be free agents -- I think an all-in move might make sense. If not, going all-in is probably a waste of money. The Rockets have done an extremely good job signing (or trading for) valuable contributors with good deals. I'd simply keep doing that.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: B. I think the Rockets can look for one-year deals in free agency without compromising their 2017-18 roster enough to justify dipping into their 2018 cap space. I don't think Houston could dramatically improve in free agency anyway, given that the entire rotation, save Nene, is already returning. The Rockets' other needs, like a reliable fourth guard in case of injury, shouldn't be particularly difficult to fill.

2. Should the Rockets sign Nene, acquire another backup center or neither?

Herring: I'd be inclined to let him walk, given the raise he'll be due. Give Montrezl Harrell, the current backup, a shot there. Though he's heavily reliant on Harden's feeds to score at times, Harrell can do enough of the things Nene does to fill in for him. That said, D'Antoni's limited use of Harrell in the Spurs series shows the coaching staff doesn't trust him nearly as much as Nene at the moment.

MacMahon: Nene on another one-year deal should be Plan A. He embraces the reserve role, fits the system and serves as a positive veteran influence in the locker room. If his price is too high, the Rockets should search for another stopgap veteran backup. There's no reason to spend big money or commit multiple years for a position that will be manned primarily by Clint Capela.

Haberstroh: Re-sign Nene. He was such a valuable member in the rotation and offers a stronger scoring presence than Capela, who is more of a lob threat. His groin injury is just another instance of a long line of health issues he has faced in his career, but that should be priced into the contract. At this age, there are not too many places where he can get minutes on a championship-contending team. He can get that in Houston.

Pelton: That depends on the market for Nene and whether he's willing to take less money on a one-year deal to return, but I wouldn't give him a significant raise despite how well he played for Houston this season. There are simply too many capable centers on the market to feel the need to sign any specific one. One name in particular to watch for the Rockets: Willie Reed of the Miami Heat, who could fill a similar role to Capela's.

Engelmann: Nene is quite good -- real plus-minus (RPM) has him as the 12th-best center this season -- when he's on the court. Problem is, Nene is rarely healthy for long. Not only has he missed time this postseason, the 67 games he played in the regular season were the most he has played since 2010-11. I'd re-sign him, but not for more than $12 million per season.

3. Should they sign Clint Capela to an extension or wait?

Pelton: Unless Capela is willing to take a huge discount -- something in the range of $10 million a year -- I'd wait for him to reach restricted free agency. While that might cost the Rockets some extra salary, it means less risk and allows them to take advantage of his small $7.0 million cap hold as a restricted free agent (RFA).

Engelmann: That's dependent on the price Capela's agent gives them. And there is risk for Houston either way. Given that Capela is just 22, chances are he's going to further improve his numbers. So a team eager to get him from Houston might throw the max at him next summer.

Herring: I love Capela, and his fit here as Harden's pick-and-roll partner, but would probably wait. See whether this team can consistently contend with the current roster, and see where these players take you first. If you have to spend big next year to keep him as a RFA, so be it. But don't pull the trigger now when there may be a better move out there for you between now and then.

MacMahon: Capela has played his way into a huge contract. Young rim protectors who average double-digit points without demanding the ball get paid. The Rockets would be wise to wait, though. It's not that Capela needs to do anything more to convince them that he can be a core player for years to come. It's that Houston can benefit by waiting to make that financial commitment to Capela -- maintaining cap space for 2018 -- and has no risk of losing him as a restricted free agent. The price will be high either way.

Haberstroh: Wait. Tabling it until next offseason will offer them flexibility in free agency and allow them to chase free agents without him eating the cap. Capela is an outstanding young player, who fits perfectly in their system, but there's little upside in locking him in now.​

 

4. What trade would you like to see the Rockets make?

MacMahon: A swing-for-the-fences deal for a superstar. However, it's hard to envision how Houston could come up with the assets to make a competitive bid for a Jimmy Butler or Paul George. As far as needs go, the Rockets could use another 3-and-D wing to ease some of the burden on Trevor Ariza.

Haberstroh: Defensive bigs. When Nene went down, it exposed their lack of defensive depth in the frontcourt and forced Harden to play out of position. Sure, Chinanu Onuaku and Harrell are possibilities down the line, but I'd dangle Lou Williams and see if they could get a David West or Dewayne Dedmon type player.

Pelton: Besides signing free agents to one-year deals, another way for Houston to use its cap space without cutting into 2018 flexibility would be trading for players in the final season of their contracts. Taking Ed Davis into space would give the Rockets a good backup center option while also cutting the Portland Trail Blazers' luxury-tax bill.

Engelmann: If they're serious about winning a championship, I think they'll have to move Ryan Anderson. He is great when it comes to bombing lesser teams out of the building, but I don't think he can be your starting PF if you want to beat the Warriors or Cavs. Unfortunately, power forwards that can shoot 3s and defend well are extremely tough to find.

Herring: Similar to the deal they almost pulled off for Chris Bosh a couple years ago. They probably lack the assets to seriously land someone like Kristaps Porzingis, but he'd be an unbelievable fit with a club like Houston, both because of what he brings on offense and because of his rim-protecting ability on defense. That's more than likely a pipe dream, but something in that direction would benefit them most.

5. How many Western Conference finals appearances do you expect for the Rockets the next five seasons?

Haberstroh: If the over/under is at 2.5, I'll take the under. The Warriors should rule the West for some time, but the Rockets have built something special in Houston. This team is a lot closer to a championship than its second-round exit would suggest. Dallas in 2011 should be a reminder that lingering around can pay off in a big way.

Herring: If things shake out in their favor? Maybe 1 or 2. It depends on whether they can find that sort of center who fits their unusual style on offense while also taking them from being merely respectable on defense to elite.

They could potentially reach the West finals regularly depending on what happens with the other contenders this summer. The Clippers and Jazz both have big decisions on the table, while it might be time for the Spurs to turn over their starting point guard spot.

MacMahon: Maybe a couple. Put it this way: The Rockets are well positioned to be in the group of teams that can fight for the right to meet the Warriors in the West finals over the next five years. But so are the Spurs and Jazz (if Gordon Hayward stays).

Engelmann: I'd set the over/under at 1.5. On the plus side, the Rockets have one of the smartest front offices in the league. But Capela, Trevor Ariza and Lou Williams, who currently make a combined $16 million per season, will be looking for big raises soon, and it'll be tough to find adequate replacements.

Pelton: I think the line is set at 1.5. As long as James Harden is on the roster, and in better shape than in 2015-16, the Rockets should be in the mix for the conference finals. At the same time, there are many teams in the mix and probably only one spot to go around as long as the Golden State Warriors are intact. So I think it's reasonable to expect one or two conference finals appearances.​