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Election 2020

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by TheresTheDagger, May 13, 2020.

  1. TheresTheDagger

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    It's probably about time we have a thread for all things related to the 2020 election. Here's the results of the 2 open congressional seats last night.





    The California seat in particular was a huge win for Republicans picking up the seat from the disgraced Katie Hill in a district that Hillary Clinton won by 7 points in 2016.
     
  2. Major

    Major Member

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    WI-7 wasn't a surprise. The margin was +14 vs +21 for Trump in 2016, but I don't know that we can make anything of that given that it's a special election in a pandemic.

    CA-25 is more interesting but also weird. These two are matched up again in November, and many accounts have the Dem just not spending many resources this time around and keeping them for November. Not sure if that's true, but seems like a dumb strategy to me.

    Bigger picture, I think both parties are shooting themselves in the foot with mail-in voting. Mail votes tend to be older and more conservative in general, and I think both parties misread how this would play out. Both parties seem to think that it makes it easier to vote -> more turnout -> more Dems. But younger voters and low-propensity voters tend to be more motivated by the communal aspect of voting and are less likely to even pay attention to mail. High turnout favors Dems with in-person elections, but I think mail-only elections favor the GOP. Even more so this year where people who are anti-Trump are likely more motivated to vote than pro-Trump (as we saw in that Wisconsin race where they made everyone go out in person). But both parties are fighting against that.
     
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  3. TheresTheDagger

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    I personally feel mail voting is a potential cauldron of fraud by all sides. I'd prefer the money be spent on creating more polling places and the longest possible hours to vote on election day. We already have absentee voting. That's enough to insure all have the ability to vote if they want to. We don't really need mail in voting.
     
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  4. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member

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    Is Ca25 official? I read they can still recieve votes for 3 days and have a lot of absentee counting to do.
     
  5. TheresTheDagger

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    Christy Smith has conceded.
     
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  6. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton

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    CA district 25 has about 720,000 people in it, I believe. So they saw extremely small turnout. Especially in the LA county part of it, they're very nervous about the outbreak there, with bad case #s. Not a great time to take any time to vote in a meaningless election for a temporary seat. I wouldn't read a lot into this result.

    I've spent a lot of time in that district and when they have someone other than Trump at the top of the ballot? Look out. The orange one will be losing CA's electoral votes by a record margin, I would imagine, even though he still might win the electoral college (odds dropping, in my opinion, but we'll see).

    On the main topic, I really wish it had been possible for the GOP to primary Trump. I understand why they didn't. I understand the reasons they stick with him. But he's been so objectively terrible, even if you narrow it down to just tone and setting a behavioral example. Take all the policy out of it (where I disagree with him strongly on most things), but he's set back our culture and our ability to talk with each other by decades. Hard to know how to repair it, but most people want to start by electing a new CEO.
     
  7. adoo

    adoo Member

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    dumb, but true.

    Garcia will be up for re-election in Nov; Smythe will be his opponent again, this time w support from the DNC
     
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  8. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    Living here. I see way more Mike Garcia ads. I think I've seen them multiple times a day, and I don't watch much commercial television. I think I've seen 2 ads for Smith the whole time.

    I'm not sure about the strategy. I mean if he looks like a winner and she looks like a loser, that isn't the best way to start the next election
     
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  9. Major

    Major Member

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    I agree on creating more polling places and making in-person voting easier. But I think voter fraud is sort of a boogeyman but doesn't happen much in reality. On the individual level, the upside reward (1 extra likely-meaningless vote for your favorite candidate) vs the downside risk (jail) doesn't really justify it. You'd have to do on a large scale to have any value, and that's hard to hide (see North Carolina). Several states already do voting by mail - I think California was already 80%+ or something, so going to all mail is fairly easy. But I do think the states that don't have as much experience with it would make a mess of it and result in all sorts of chaos, especially trying to do in the next 4-5 months.
     
  10. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Contributing Member
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    At any other time, I'd be inclined to agree with all of that. But older voters are turning on Trump. They've responded very badly to the boasting and picking fights at press conferences, where he fails to show any empathy at all, particularly at a time that they're at higher risk than younger people. And most of them know they are.

    They are not, as Dan Patrick asserts they would be, happy to sacrifice their lives for the 'greater good' of a better economy (a shortsighted idea as reopened states aren't all that far off from situations that would cause them to close again, including Texas).

    This is why the numbers in FL, as an example, are so tight. It's all because of older voters. And it's what's sent Trump through the roof a week or two ago, to the extent that he threatened to sue his FL campaign manager on a conference call. (Note to Trump: campaign managers can't help you when you're willfully sacrificing the lives of the people you need to vote for you.)

    Trump is all-in on reopening, not where it's safe, but everywhere. He believes this will lead to an economic rebound. He's wrong.

    That's not playing with older voters at all, especially as the virus has begun to spike in rural, reliably red states.

    Polls continue to suggest that the vast majority of Americans (and a small majority of Republicans) do not think it's safe to reopen and are against doing so.

    Trump is making the biggest gamble of his life and he's gambling on a miracle like the one that was going to make all this "magically disappear in April."

    The ones out in the streets that are protesting against restrictions represent a small minority, but they'll be all too happy to vote in person, because they're out of their heads. Their numbers seem larger because Republican elected officials are scared to death to do or say anything against Trump and so are making decisions that wholly disregard public safety. Still, the protestors and the elected officials are not very many people.

    Democrats are far more likely to err on the side of public safety. I like our chances with mail-in ballots only, perhaps especially as older voters turn away from Trump.

    And though I'd rather we defeat the virus to winning an election (even one with existential implications like this one), this is going to get worse and worse and worse, all while Trump promises it's almost over. Nearly everything he's said or done since this whole thing started is a damning, ready-made campaign commercial for Democrats.

    All those words to say that conventional wisdom has never applies less than it does today. And it will apply even less by tomorrow.
     
  11. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Kudos for a Republican actually suggesting expanding polling places. I think with November, it would be a bit silly to completely change the voting process now to all mail in when we still are able to go to the grocery stores in person with safety measures. Expand early voting, expand polling locations, expand hours, and put in a ton of safety measures to limit human to human contact in the process.

    I'm all for anything that gets more people to vote regardless of party. Especially here in Texas which is a non-voting state. Would love to see more engagement in such a diverse state with much more to offer the country in a leadership perspective than we've inserted ourselves into in the past nationally. Voting is a big part of that. We should at least be on par with where Florida is from a political power perspective.
     
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  12. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Contributing Member
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    All voting is a potential cauldron of fraud by all sides, within our country and without. I'm a lot more concerned about fraud among the touchscreen machines that have serially submitted wrong votes right in front of the voters eyes.

    I agree very much on more polling places, longest possible hours to vote, and absentee voting. I think that it's critical too to institute a national holiday for Election Day. D's want that and R's oppose it because higher turnout/voting always benefits D's.

    And the above things don't get us to a place of ensuring everyone that wants to vote has the ability to do so. We have an incredible amount of voter suppression, through intimidation or outright striking of legit voters from the rolls. We already see that the voting machines (and staff to get voters through the lines in a timely fashion) are WAY worse in minority or blighted neighborhoods. This is literally why Georgia has a Governor Kemp and not a Governor Abrams.

    All that aside, "we really don't need mail-in voting??" Are you kidding?? It is potentially deadly to stand in line, enter a building, and cast a vote.

    We've never needed mail-in voting this badly before.

    Why do you think Trump said CA's mail-in votes "absolutely must not be counted?" Why do you think he's publicly musing about abolishing the post office? These things aren't coincidences.

    Trump believes mail-in voting will harm him because sane people might rather stay safe than vote in person and crazy people think Covid is a Democratic hoax, so will definitely turn out.
     
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  13. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Regarding the two wins for Republicans last night.... I really don't know what to make of it, but have some knee jerk opinions of course.

    The big thing is up until last night Trump has been abysmal in down ticket success in elections. Plain and simple. He drives massive turnout on his side with a cult base, but at the same time often drives turnout in the other direction too which has a much wider pool of voters to turnout.

    My guess is the DNC really screwed up the elections last night with working to turn out voters, or maybe they simply did not try because they need every dollar they can in November, and the RNC put money in this one so they can show some hope to their voters that they can flip the House and retain the Senate/Presidency too.

    Let this be a reminder to all Democrats out there that Trump's people are going to turn out big time, and they need to ensure that there is something for the "That's why I don't vote - George Carlin" crowd. I think targeting Trump's court play to destroy the ACA and pre-existing conditions is a good bet to make it worth the while for that crowd to have something to vote for. Everyone either has or knows someone with pre-existing conditions. The party led by Biden's camp better be all over the place with that type of message because the election in November is going to be close. Trumps base will be there with bells on (or AR15's).
     
  14. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member

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    I apologize for being nit picky but isn’t there already an Election 2020 thread? Maybe these can be combined
     
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  15. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Rocket River
     
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  16. dumbartonbass

    dumbartonbass Contributing Member
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    I don’t understand how mail voting can be so frightening when a number of states, both GOP and Democratic-led, have had mail-in voting for years with no problem.
     
  17. jchu14

    jchu14 Contributing Member

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    Absentee voting isn't available for everyone in all states. There are 16 states that require an excuse to sign up for absentee voting. I am pretty annoyed as Texan that I won't be able to vote by mail since I'm healthy and present. If this pandemic is not drastically better by November and millions of Texans have to stand in lines for hours to vote, I think the state government is culpable for prioritizing politics over public health.
     
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  18. AleksandarN

    AleksandarN Member

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    Trump wanted to cancel people’s votes because a voting station was added in a democratic strong hold. Not only does president not want mail in votes because it favors(in his eyes ) the opposition now he is against adding actual voting stations. He wants the votes not counted. This guy doesn’t care about democracy. Why are you on the right support this wannabe dictator. @TheresTheDagger @Astrodome

    P.S. I believe there is a piss tape out there. But it is not Trump pissing on women it is him pissing on the constitution
     
    #18 AleksandarN, May 14, 2020
    Last edited: May 14, 2020
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  19. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member

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    Mail-in voting seems appealing especially with the virus lingering in November. If Biden is on the ballot, I will not be voting for him.
     
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  20. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Contributing Member
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    That's okay as long as you understand you're voting for Trump.
     
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