[Educate Me] What are the bright spots on this team?

How could you leave out...

 

She's super cool. I hope they keep her here in Houston...her Dallas roots notwithstanding!!

 

IIRC since May, the Astros are a 500 team.

 

Not quite; they're 47-59, which is a 72-win pace. They were awful in April (9-19).

IF... Altuve, Kuechel and McHugh are legit;
IF... Carter can consistently hit 30+ HRs and get on base 32.5-33%;
IF... Springer and Singleton continue to develop and get better;
IF... Fowler can stay healthy;

That team right there? That team could probably win 72-75 games (again, IF...). So they would have to find a 3B/SS/OF + enough pitching to push them to 10+ more wins...

My hunch is that they *probably* have enough pitching in their system to cover the rotation/bullpen. If Moran continues his current AA pace and can lock down 3B next year and we find a solid bat in free agency to man a corner OF position...

Am I crazy?

 

22 straight wins

 

If the 4 IFs you listed are true, that could be close to a .500 team in itself. I mean they've been on a 72 win pace with most of that, except Fowler hasn't been healthy the whole time, Springer/Singleton development = improvement from current, and Carter was pretty awful for the first half of the 72 win pace this time around.

Hence, I don't think you're crazy in your plan--adding a free agent bat + getting someone else up next year really should push towards .500 (even with some regression from the IFs).

 

The crazy parts are

1) Fowler staying healthy

2) Crane spending on an impact bat

IF those things happened, yea we could be pretty good

 

WAR does not say Altuve is a better hitter than those two guys. WAR is a wins against replacement stat that takes into account cumulative stats (i.e. you miss time like Tulowitski, you have been less valuable). WAR takes into account batting, base running, fielding, position, replacement, and league. If you isolated the batting component of WAR and divided by plate appearances, I think the people you generally consider better hitters than Altuve would have a higher number.

Even without looking at PAs, the batting component for fWAR has the two you mentioned at 8 and 9...Altuve at 33.

 

We were looking at offensive WAR which eliminates the fielding component, but keeps the base-running component.

I would hope that you account base running into any measure of a "batter" as well.

Altuve's also a respectable 5th in MLB in runs created.

 

They'll have to make a decision on Fowler prior to the start of next season (his free agency year)... either trade him or extend him.

Letting him play out his free agency year is a risk if he gets injured again (zero trade value at the deadline).

 

I was responding to Major who was discussing "hitter". When evaluating a player as a batter or a "hitter", I evaluate their batting. I would include base running with overall offensive ability, but not a measure of what a guy does solely in the batter's box. To me it looked like you were discussing overall offensive player and Major was talking about what a player does in the batter's box without respect to position. If I misunderstood what Major was talking about, I apologize to Major.

I would hope you would account for fielding in the overall measure of a player. However, when comparing a trade involving a defensive player (Marisnick) with a pitcher for an apples to apples comparison...you cited a stat that gives all win probability added to the pitcher and the batter with none going to base runners or fielders.

 

Major and I were discussing the best hitters in baseball... and how he felt Altuve wasn't one of them. I responded with a stat/metric that said he was. That's all.

But at the sake of putting all this crap to bed... this year, Altuve is a top 10 OFFENSIVE player (with RC and oWAR supporting that), but he's not a top 10 "hitter only" and not a top 10 overall player. (#semantics).

I hope that appeases you...

 

If they trade him fer a prospekt ill puke

 

Its more than likely that if he doesn't sign an extension (and they look to trade him), they'd probably take prospects back vs. the $0.10 on the dollar MLB player that a team would be willing to give up for him.

 

And when it happens, I'll puke

 

Please puke then go root for another team. TIA!

 

It seems actually obtainable that we lose fewer than 90 games this year. A mere 10-9 finish will accomplish the task.

 

A mere 20-0 to finish the season and we're 82-80!