There's been a lot of worries (some by me) about what would happen if the Rockets were to amnesty Scola and use its cap flexibility to take on too many "bad contracts" from Orlando. So I decided to do a little math on the situation. Given that some people freak out over trade made up by posters, PLEASE NOTE that we DO NOT KNOW the exact trade configuration, and there are simply way too many combinations of players that can change hands (or get waived or whatever) in a Dwight Howard trade. So, the following is based on MY SPECULATION of what a trade MIGHT LOOK LIKE. There are also many ancillary deals that can change the cap picture (one which I can think of is a Courtney Lee S&T). Also, please note that there will likely be some minor errors here and there, but the numbers should reflect the essence of the situation: In any case, here's what the salary situation looks like right now. Reports are that NYK is certain to match the Lin offer and CHI is most likely to match the Asik offer, so I'm making these assumptions here. If both are matched, the Rockets can have roughly $12.3M in cap room, with the ability to create $6.7M more by simply waiving the non- or partially guaranteed players. Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td> </td><td> $12,439,675 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td> </td><td> $8,591,793 </td><td> $9,408,207 </td><td> $10,224,622 </td><td>$11,041,037 </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> Renounced </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> Signed with PHX </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td> </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td> </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td> $964,750 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith </td><td> 50% Guaranteed in 12/13 </td><td> $762,195 </td><td> $854,389 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> Waived </td><td> $644,005 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td>Waived</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lamb</td><td>Traded</td><td> $2,020,200 </td><td> $2,111,160 </td><td> $2,202,000 </td><td> $3,034,356 </td></tr> <tr><td>Royce White</td><td>Traded</td><td> $1,645,440 </td><td> $1,719,480 </td><td> $1,793,520 </td><td> $2,751,260 </td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas </td><td>120% Scale-Signed</td><td> $1,361,400 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td>Terrence Jones</td><td>120% Scale</td><td> $1,485,000 </td><td> $1,551,840 </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Leuer</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td>$762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Brockman</td><td> </td><td>$1,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Shaun Livingstone</td><td> Waived</td><td> $3,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Gary Forbes</td><td> </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lin</td><td>Offer Matched</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>Offer Matched</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Toney Douglas</td><td>Traded to ORL</td><td> $2,067,880 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jerome Jordan</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Josh Harrelson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td> </td><td> $45,718,933 </td><td> $23,086,918 </td><td> $18,287,492 </td><td> $21,604,387 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td> </td><td>19 </td><td>8 </td><td>5 </td><td>4 </td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td> </td><td> $12,325,067 </td><td> $34,957,082 </td><td> $39,756,508 </td><td> $36,439,613 </td></tr> <tr><td>Total NonGuaranteed</td><td> </td><td> $6,692,072.50 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td></td></tr></table> Now if you amnesty Scola, this takes your projected cap room up to $20.9M, with the ability to create $6.7M more by waiving the non- and partially guaranteed guys. Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td> </td><td> $12,439,675 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td> Amnestied </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> Renounced </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> Signed with PHX </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td> </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td> </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td> $964,750 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith </td><td> 50% Guaranteed in 12/13 </td><td> $762,195 </td><td> $854,389 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> Waived </td><td> $644,005 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td>Waived</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lamb</td><td>Traded</td><td> $2,020,200 </td><td> $2,111,160 </td><td> $2,202,000 </td><td> $3,034,356 </td></tr> <tr><td>Royce White</td><td>Traded</td><td> $1,645,440 </td><td> $1,719,480 </td><td> $1,793,520 </td><td> $2,751,260 </td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas </td><td>120% Scale-Signed</td><td> $1,361,400 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td>Terrence Jones</td><td>120% Scale</td><td> $1,485,000 </td><td> $1,551,840 </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Leuer</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td>$762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Brockman</td><td> </td><td>$1,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Shaun Livingstone</td><td>1M Guaranteed</td><td> $3,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Gary Forbes</td><td> </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lin</td><td>Offer Matched</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>Offer Matched</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Toney Douglas</td><td>Traded to ORL</td><td> $2,067,880 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jerome Jordan</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Josh Harrelson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td> </td><td> $37,127,140 </td><td> $13,678,711 </td><td> $8,062,870 </td><td> $10,563,350 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td> </td><td>18 </td><td>7 </td><td>4 </td><td>3 </td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td> </td><td> $20,916,860 </td><td> $44,365,289 </td><td> $49,981,130 </td><td> $47,480,650 </td></tr> <tr><td>Total NonGuaranteed</td><td> </td><td> $6,692,072.50 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td></td></tr></table> Now, for the trade: I am assuming that Houston will give up any draft picks that it has, including (a) the Toronto pick, (b) the Dallas pick, (c) the 2 NYK 2nd rounders, and (d) whatever pick, if any, they can get from a Courtney Lee S&T, but those are unlikely to have a cap impact. I am also assuming that Houston will give up Jeremy Lamb and at least one other 2012 draftee. Not sure if Orlando will care too much about to taking both White and Jones since they drafted a couple of PF/Cs of their own (Nicholson and O'Quinn). For now I am assuming it's Lamb and White, but we can substitute or add other players in the trade with fairly minor impacts. It also seems that Kevin Martin will be needed for salary matching in most scenarios, particularly any that includes Hedo. As for the Orlando "bad contracts" there have been 4 reported to have been in some iterations of the ORL-BKN trade: Hedo, JRich, QRich and Duhon, so I am including some combination of those guys in the scenarios below: These basically fall into two groups: Hedo and JRich are the "big bads" and QRich and Duhon are the "little bads." Note that Hedo and Duhon are both only partially guaranteed for 2013/14, so you can waive them and save some $. Contract details below: http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/magic.jsp Anyhow, here's one scenario: Lets say HOU takes back Hedo, JRich and Duhon, what happens? I am primarily interested in seeing whether HOU has the ability to (a) add a free agent (maybe on a 1 year contract) for 2012/13 and (b) both retain Howard and add significantly during the summer of 2013. I assume that being able to add talent around Howard is the key objective here (lack of flexibility to add talent is why Dwight wanted out of ORL in the first place). Here goes: Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td> Traded </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td> Amnestied </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> Renounced </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> Signed with PHX </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td> </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td> </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td> $964,750 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith </td><td> 50% Guaranteed in 12/13 </td><td> $762,195 </td><td> $854,389 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> Waived </td><td> $644,005 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td>Waived</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lamb</td><td>Traded</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Royce White</td><td>Traded</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas </td><td>120% Scale-Signed</td><td> $1,361,400 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td>Terrence Jones</td><td>120% Scale</td><td> $1,485,000 </td><td> $1,551,840 </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Leuer</td><td>Waived</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Brockman</td><td> </td><td>$1,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Shaun Livingstone</td><td>$1M Guaranteed</td><td> $1,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Gary Forbes</td><td> </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lin</td><td>Offer Matched</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>Offer Matched</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Toney Douglas</td><td> </td><td> $2,067,880 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jerome Jordan</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Josh Harrelson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Dwight Howard</td><td> </td><td>$19,536,360 </td><td> $20,513,178 </td><td> $22,051,666 </td><td> $23,590,155 </td></tr> <tr><td>Jason Richardson</td><td> </td><td>$5,799,625 </td><td>$6,204,250 </td><td>$6,601,125 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Chris Duhon</td><td>Waived Yr2</td><td>$3,250,000 </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Hedo Turkoglu</td><td>Waived Yr2</td><td> $11,815,850 </td><td> $6,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td> </td><td> $55,112,685 </td><td> $44,065,499 </td><td> $32,720,141 </td><td> $28,367,889 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td> </td><td>13 </td><td>8 </td><td>4 </td><td>2 </td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td> </td><td> $2,927,315 </td><td> $13,974,501 </td><td> $25,319,859 </td><td> $29,672,111 </td></tr></table> It actually looks kind of interesting: The team would have AT LEAST $2.9M in cap room (SIGNIFICANTLY more if ORL takes back more guys, be it a valuable prospect or, say, Gary Forbes) and the $2.5M "Room Exception" with which to sign players. You may be able to land an Aaron Brooks with that money. For the next season, the team would have $44M owed to 8 players-- not quite max cap room unless the cap goes up (which is a possibility). The numbers would be a little more if HOU give Orlando, say, Patterson or Morris also in the trade package. It's not the ideal situation by any means, but not quite a strangle hold on talent addition, either. Of course, HOU would prefer to take back less bad contracts. My guess it they would prefer not to take both of the "big bads" and instead take just one of the big bads with one (or maybe both) of the "little bads." If they do so, it is possible for the team to have enough to keep Howard AND add another max-level player (Chris Paul? Harden?) in free agency. Sidenote: I also took a look at the scenarios without Scola amnestied. The Rockets can manage to eat roughly the same amount of contracts from ORL with or without Scola amnestied, they just may have to give back a couple of smallish salaries in return if they kept Scola. The main difference, though, is that with Scola on Houston's payroll, getting Dwight + even a couple other contracts would mean that the team would not have any cap room to pursue a free agent like Aaron Brooks (only the $2.5M room exception, if I am not missing something). Given how forward-heavy that the Rockets are likely going to be even if they trade a few to Orlando, it would seem that the ability to sign an Aaron Brooks would be a greater priority than keeping Luis Scola from a team need point of view.
Holy cow, how do you and BimaThug do it? All this complicated salary-cap math is waaaay over my head...but I thank you for putting it together, for those of us that can understand it. You two are far more hardcore Houston Rockets fans than I could ever hope to be. (That's a compliment.)
Trading 2 lottery picks, and half our roster for a 15% of resigning howard seems like a very bad idea to me. -Trade Martin & Scola for Picks -Play all young players and tank this season End up with potentially two high lottery picks and ample cap room
15% huh? Tanking and being bad is NOT as sure fire way to get better. There are plenty of teams around the league that are bad and have stayed bad. If you can grab a star (top 2-5 player to boot), you do it. If he walks, we can do your crappy plan the next year.
Great thread, as usual CH. Given the fact that Howard already does not want to come here, I think we are unlikely to have until next summer to add another very good player. IMO Howard will not sit on a promise that we will make yet another spash next summer - he has been offered this promise for years already, and there is absolutely no reason to think anyone will want to come to Houston BEFORE Howard commits, while Howard will probably not commit till we at least get him a running mate. We need to have a solid, "missing one piece to win it all" kind of team to convince him to re-sign. Given the picture painted here, I'd rather have Bynum if healthy.
I'm beginning to think this is posturing by the Rockets. We've been hearing how they'll get that second star to convince Dwight to stay. That's not Aaron Brooks. Now what purpose does it serve to leak this Scola news? Whoever is the third team involved needs to step up to the plate and take on more responsibility for these bad Magic contracts? If they don't the Rockets simply go on ahead and make a direct trade with the Magic for Dwight? So they've figured they can't makes the secondary moves to keep Dwight but have the ability for another foundation player? Except they won't take on those bad contracts? Hello, Bynum?
Neither is trading away all the assets you've acquired for a player that has said he doesn't want to play for your team. The odds that he would stick with Houston compared to going to Atlanta to play with his best friend, The Nets, Lakers are terrible. Its much more likely that we would make the trade for him, lose him. Lose all our draft picks and young players and cap room going forward.
The Hedo contract is what kills it for me. It is an absolutely awful contract. Not only that but to amnesty a class act like Scola also stinks. At the end of the day I do this trade but damn i'd hope Morey wouldn't have to take on all those awful contracts.
To me, a very good settlement of the situation for Houston would be something like the following: HOU takes back JRich, QRich and Duhon (NOT Hedo) for the aforementioned package, Orlando also take back a small salary like, say, Forbes. This would leave HOU with $13M in cap room THIS SEASON. Not that there are great FA left on the market, but it could allow the team to sign, say, Aaron Brooks and a couple other good pieces, or even make another "splash" trade by using a couple of its remaining prospects (whoever isnt' traded for Dwight-- mabye Morris, Jones, Motiejunas) and the cap room to obtain an elite/near-elite level player (will Eric Gordon stay in NOH and stay disgruntled?). Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td> Traded to ORL </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td> Amnestied </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> Renounced </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> Signed with PHX </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td> </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td> </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td> $964,750 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith </td><td> 50% Guaranteed in 12/13 </td><td> $762,195 </td><td> $854,389 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> Waived </td><td> $644,005 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td>Waived</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lamb</td><td>Traded</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Royce White</td><td>Traded</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas </td><td>120% Scale-Signed</td><td> $1,361,400 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td>Terrence Jones</td><td>120% Scale</td><td> $1,485,000 </td><td> $1,551,840 </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Leuer</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td>$762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Brockman</td><td> </td><td>$1,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Shaun Livingstone</td><td>Waived</td><td> $1,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Gary Forbes</td><td>Traded to ORL</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jeremy Lin</td><td>Offer Matched</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>Offer Matched</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Toney Douglas</td><td> </td><td> $2,067,880 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jerome Jordan</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Josh Harrelson</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Dwight Howard</td><td> </td><td>$19,536,360 </td><td> $20,513,178 </td><td> $22,051,666 </td><td> $23,590,155 </td></tr> <tr><td>Jason Richardson</td><td> </td><td>$5,799,625 </td><td>$6,204,250 </td><td>$6,601,125 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Chris Duhon</td><td>Waived</td><td>$3,250,000 </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Quentin Richardson</td><td> </td><td> $2,627,400 </td><td> $2,808,600 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td> </td><td> $45,186,430 </td><td> $40,874,099 </td><td> $32,720,141 </td><td> $28,367,889 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td> </td><td>13 </td><td>9 </td><td>5 </td><td>3 </td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td> </td><td> $12,853,570 </td><td> $17,165,901 </td><td> $25,319,859 </td><td> $29,672,111 </td></tr></table> Not sure if realistic, but would be great if Orlando would agree to it. Hedo is owed $11.8M next season, but is only guaranteed $6M the year after if waived. Total contract $ really is not much different than JRich's, Hedo's is just more "front loaded." To me, it's kind of six one way, half a dozen the other. Depending on whether you want to be free of the contract 2 years from now, or have more flexibility now (I would opt for the latter if given a choice). Maybe. Doesn't mean he'll be a sticking point. I mean, CP25 isn't exactly a "high ceiling" prospect who is gonna be one of ORL's franchise star one day. He's a lot more useful for a team that is trying to compete (HOU if it gets Dwight) than for a rebuilding squad, no?
Very insightful analysis. A couple of minor points: 1. Another poison pill contract the Magic have is Glen Davis' 3 year/19 million contract. Duhon's 2 year/7.5 mil contract pales in comparison here. QRich's contract isn't even really a bad contract - sure Orlando would like to shed it, but it's extremely minor. The big problems are Turkoglu, Davis, Richardson's contracts, in that order. 2. I don't see Morey agreeing to take on all three - if we had made that offer, I think Orlando would have agree to it by now. Based on the extent to which Morey's trying to clear cap space, I speculate that it's likely that we'll have to swallow Hedo plus either Richardson or Davis' contracts, which will add up to around $35 million total. Richardson is much more likely considering team needs. Looking at the Magic's roster, it's hard not to notice how many ****ed up contracts they have in place. 3. I'd much, much rather amnesty Turkoglu than Scola, if given the choice, and would be terribly sad to see Scola go. However, I understand that you have to do whatever it takes to bring in a player of Howard's calibre, and I'm crossing my fingers in hopes that Morey pulls this off. Of all people, our front office and our fans deserve this trade. *UPDATE*: I just saw CH's reply that the second year of Turkoglu's contract guarantees only $6 million, in which case I think Davis' contract would seem worse by comparison. Also, I take back my opinion of wanting to amnesty Turkoglu, as it might not be worth it, depending on what we need to use that cap room for, which should always be considered before making a comment about using the amnesty clause.
As much as I would love to have howard in houston, I think its too much honestly. I've been into tanking for awhile and I'm there even more looking at the situtation. I think a yr of players developing might do wonders in howard coming via free agency. If he doesn't, they got cap room,young players,and another player from the lowry trde.
1. You can't amnesty Turkoglu. You can only amnesty a contract that's already with your team when the lockout ended. 2. I don't think ORL is that eager to dump Glen Davis. He was actually really productive for them after Dwight went down with an injury. Certainly performed above MLE level.
Tanking is the ultimate 'be careful what you wish for' situation. Getting really bad does not ensure any way of becoming a great team. OKC is a very rare exception.
Ok this will maybe sound stupid but why would we want to trade this for one year loan of Howard? Does it makes us a championship team? HELL NO! And then he walks away, we are maybe stuck with Richardson, Hedo and other pieces of s**t without draft picks and our young talent? Sure I agree maybe our rookies or sophomores aren't all star caliber or at least don't look like it but maybe one day they will be and then we will be sorry. I know it's not as easy as I look at things and that's why I'm looking for some kind of explanation why all of our future would be traded away for one year of missing free throws and wannabes?! Am I really missing the point here?
I think that's precisely why the deal is not done yet. Orlando probably wants to get rid of both Hedo and JRich, while Houston is aware that taking both ties their hands with regards to convincing Dwight to re-sign. Perhaps they can come up with a scenario where we break this trade into multiple trades, sending maximum cash in each trade so that they would feel comfortable buying out one of either Turkoglu or Richardson? Not sure if that's possible. I think the max cash we can send out per trade is $3m. Josh Smith is a possibility since Atlnata is tanking and I thought I read that he is Dwight Howard's very close friend? Seems unlikely we'll retain enough assets/flexibility to make a move for him though.
One question: Can't Orlando just amnesty one of their r****ded contract? that would make easier for both team to get a trade done.
The only point is that if Howard is on our team when his contract expires, under the new cba we can offer him 25-30M more than any other team. Everyone is banking on him (and his agent) not walking away from that kind of money and signing here long term. That's my understanding at least. I'd rather have Bynum though.
