Ducking Below The Tax In 2018-2019? It's possible.

Does the CBA rules allow us to reject the qualifying offer from Capela?

I do not want QO.

 

Nice work, finsraider. Just a couple of nit-picks, though.

First off, Capela's qualifying offer is actually $4.75 million. He met the "starter criteria" entitling him to the larger QO.

Next, don't forget that there is also a ~$123k dead cap hit for Troy Williams (although that may get slightly reduced at the end of the season, depending on how much salary he collects elsewhere next season).

I haven't run all the calculations on your proposals, but I don't think Scenario #1 would drop them below the tax. And I guess you'd need to adjust your new Capela salaries down just a bit.

Bottom line: While yes, it is POSSIBLE that the Rockets could miraculously duck the tax this season, I highly doubt it. It also would likely mean that something went terribly wrong with Capela and he probably walks next summer.

 

I’m convinced this is as least one scenario the team is trying to keep open.

 

Would trading Ryan Anderson and a 1st rounder to Atlanta for Miles Plumlee and his 2 year / $25 million put us under the luxury tax?

The Hawks have enough cap room to cover the ~8 million difference between Anderson and Plumlee.

 

What if we sign and trade Capela plus Gordon for Kawhi (see Zach Lowe thread)?

 

I think if they lowered their payroll to where they are "only" in the 250-325% luxury tax bracket (as opposed to the 525%+ range), they'd be more likely to bite the bullet and keep Ryno on the roster next season, tax be damned. The repeater tax wouldn't kick in (if at all) until several years down the road. Meanwhile, they keep Anderson as salary ballast in later trades (when he's got less money remaining on his deal) and don't clog up their cap with dead money for the following 4 seasons after this one.

 

Nice work OP

 

Imagine this scenario @finsraider

-Capela takes his QO
-We sign a variety of minimum guys (Nick Young, Ennis, etc.)
-We make the trade to get rid of Ryno for Bazemore
-We don't use the MLE at all (except a small portion to keep the third year on our 2nd rd guy)

Boom, under the tax.

 

I don't disagree with you here , especially with them not being able to land any of the big names , further closing the gap with GSW.


Its also why they let Ariza walk , money / tax is the only reason that makes any sense especially considering they didn't have a replacement lined up.


I Do like the idea of keeping Ryno's contract around for a potential big move - without that big contract allowing you to bring back so much salary , its so much harder to match salaries / make the numbers work. Ryno alone allows you to bring back $24.1m (120%+100k). Sure that contract alone doesn't get anything done , you have to add other assets to it but its a big part of the financial flexibility required to make those moves.


Not knowing how the Capela situation is going to turn out , its difficult to predict how deep they will be into the tax but even best case , Capela taking the QO they'd be right at the tax line without spending the MLE. Capela getting more than that is just pushing them further into the tax , still not having spent that MLE (aside from the portion used on Melton). We'll just have to see how that situation plays out then adjust accordingly.

IT's gonna be real hard to keep Ryno's contract and EG's production and get under the tax line.

 

Been thinking a lot about the repeater tax which is the tax killer, especially since cp3 is taking his full max deal for 4 years. The repeater tax would much in on year 4 of that deal if we are in the tax all 4 years. So I thought there was the possibility that with Lebron we'd try to keep under the tax this next season which would men we could play out the rest of cp3's deal without the luxury tax.

But I've been thinking about other ways to avoid the repeater tax, especially in light of Anderson's contract. And I really think the opportunity here is to pay the tax this season and next season and attempt to step out of the tax in the 2020-21 season.

It is during that season (coinciding with the ending of Anderson's deal) that the salary cap is projected to move up to 117-120 million. Which would mean the luxury tax line is at 137-140 million.

I think the major opportunity this season is to move Anderson out for more salary. In other words trade him (and others if needed) for more incoming salary and in the process pick up assets in the form of draft picks, etc.

Teams that are anxious or desperate to cut salary this season include the Thunder, Raptors, Wizards, and Nuggets. The Warriors are in the tax too but don't seem to care. The Thunder in particular are very motivated to unload salary because they are paying the repeater tax. That's why you keep reading about them waiving and stretching Melo. Because doing that will save them $100 million in taxes.

But that's still a $9 million cap hit for the next three seasons and they've got to decide whether or not to waive him before the season starts to be able to stretch him. I'm thinking that if they could trade him into another team's cap space and take back a smaller expiring contract that they could buy out for $4-5 million (Chandler, Dudley, others) that they would give up their 2019 first round pick to do that.

Once that happens they need to turn Steven Adams into Cody Zeller or another quality big making about half what Adams makes to get out of the tax or at least get real close to the tax line and minimize the damage. That would save them roughly another $60-70 million.

So you can see shortly that the empty cap since, already at a premium, will become even more expensive in terms of assets to be able Rubio dump salary in to.

With this environment the opportunity lies in going the other way.....helping a team like Denver, Toronto, or Washington cut salary.

OR even in helping a team cut future salary by taking on a longer term contract (s). For instance, Phoenix. Trading them Ryan Anderson (and others) for some combination of Brandon Knight, TJ Warren (longer term deal but at decent value contract) actually helps their cap space now and in the future. Wet pay a little nite salary now. But Knight is an easier contract to move than Anderson in another season.

Something like this could also possibly work with the Wizards. Even on a smaller scale. They've got some nice expiring deals. Markieff, Smith, Satoransky, Oubre. We could piece together Nene, onuaku, Vince for a couple of those guys.

I think the way to go is to add salary through trade and add assets, pay the tax this year, and target next season or more likely 2020-21 to step out of the tax.

 

If CC signs his QO (which some are now saying is a possibility) then it's certainly something they should aggressively look at... and then come back full force the following year when RA is an expiring...
Many on here would be outraged... but its good business....