It's time we do something with him and either trade for a middle reliever and have Rondon as the closer or trade him for a prospect and bring up Cionel Perez or Josh James
The Astros are very fair with their players, giving them every chance to succeed. But there is a tipping point. It feels like Giles just leaped over it.
Can anyone actually pinpoint why Giles gets knocked around? The velo is there, the slider has been ok....pitch calling? Location? Seems like he never really pitches inside and doesn't work up and down either. Seems like everything is out over the plate. Just my observation, does anyone have anything more insightful?
For a guy with his stuff he doesn't miss enough bats. He's not walking people and doesn't give up HRs, just lots of base hits. In a little under half the innings compared to last season, he's given up 8 fewer hits and 1 fewer XBH. Also, look between his ears. This whole "he can only pitch in save situations" is BS, he did just as well last season in non-saves, and it's not like he was a closer his whole career, in fact from '14-16 he was better when not saving games.
Giles has a higher swinging strike % than any other reliever on the team, so I don't think his problem is missing bats.
I haven't watched the game with Giles as closely lately, but his slider was off earlier in the year. His slider, according to stats, appears to be better more often lately. He's still only had a 3 game consecutive streak when he had decent downward movement on it versus what he's done in the past (i.e., he's still having at least 1 game every 4 that he doesn't have his only good pitch). His slider hasn't gotten pounded too often, but he tends to rely on his meatball fastball when he's not getting movement on his slider. He's been trying to walk less guys. For a guy that throws a meatball fastball, throwing it more and more in the zone may not be the best idea.
Rondon's is better, and he's essentialy (w/in .8%) the same as Devo and Harris. He also has, by a decent margin, the highest % of balls in play of any reliever, trailing only Keuchel on the team. He throws too many hittable pitches, if you like that terminology better. eta: also, what @Joe Joe said.
His slider didn't have the downward vertical break but it had more horizontal break than he has shown in the past, which you would think would improve the quality of the pitch, but he didn't appear comfortable with it for whatever reason.
The first pitch he threw was a slider that just kind of floated, thankfully it was up and in. He threw 2 more to Lowrie, 1 good (swing and miss) 1 terrible (middle of the plate & got hit). Davis didn't give him a chance to throw another one. You want his slider to have that sharp downward break.
That's weird that Statcast and FG disagree on that point...it looks like Statcast includes caught foul tips as swinging strikes whereas FG does not. Giles has definitely given up more quality contact than Rondon and most of the other Astros relievers this season, although I'm skeptical of how meaningful that information is when projecting his future performance. Pitcher xwOBA against has been shown as no better at predicting future wOBA against than FIP, for instance, and Depth Charts has Giles and Rondon projected at around the same ERA for the RoS. I'm fine with giving Rondon higher leverage spots (as Hinch has been doing) given their trendlines for this season. However, the incessant braying from fans about Giles needing to be traded or that he's ****ing worthless is tiresome.
He cannot locate the bottom part of the zone, he cannot locate the bottom corners. Always middle or up in the zone. His Slider has no snap going downward. His slider floats from right to left, always a ball or a wild pitch happens. Astros really need to give youngsters a opportunity to pitch in relief. There are hard throwers in the Minors in AA.
That whole "he cant pitch in non save situations" was always such a bullshit excuse, narrated by many on here. The dood simply can not control his fastball. Its often all over the place and when its a 4 seam with no movement, its gonna be tough getting mlb bats out.
Does he have options? If so a trip to chill in AAA seems like a logical next step. He’s already been demoted to low leverage. His trade value is far too low to shop him. If he doesn’t have options then they just have to keep him in low leverage. But his inability to control his emotions is a far bigger problem than his inability to prevent runs imho. A guy with his potential can right the ship quickly after outings like last night if he is mature enough. What worries me about Giles is I think he gets beat once on the field and once off it. He definitely still has value, but Hinch/Luhnow are now officially in delicate territory with him.
I feel like there's a large enough statistical sample size of save situations, vs not save situations... including this year alone... that would clarify if its truly a "bullshit" excuse. He may just work better under juice/pressure or need that mental edge... which doesn't excuse him from being an ass-hat in every other situation. Its analogous to those who consistently procrastinate or wait till the final hour to make deadlines... its a bad personality trait in business, and apparently even more-so in baseball.
I would not put any stock at all in the difference in his performance in save vs non-save situations.
