Do you trust Dallas Keuchel?

Easy there, boi.

 

From ESPN... seems like a decent assessment:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23843881/free-agency-checkup-which-stars-adding-losing-money

Dallas Keuchel
Trending down: Keuchel has been fine with a 4.15 ERA, but given his fastball velocity and some minor injury issues in the past, he hasn't pitched well enough to receive a $100 million mega-deal.

What's left to prove: Nothing, really. He is who he is, a guy who gets ground balls and won't beat himself. In 2015 and 2017, when he had sub-3.00 ERAs, his ground-ball rates were over 60 percent. In 2016 and 2018, those rates have fallen below 58 percent. With Keuchel, it's a fine line between being a No. 1 or 2 starter and a No. 3.

Predicting the market: Keuchel and Charlie Morton are both free agents. The Astros are unlikely to sign both, as prospect Forrest Whitley should be ready in 2019, plus you still have Collin McHugh as a rotation option. Keuchel and Jose Altuve are the two Astros who suffered through the really bad days. They gave Altuve a big extension, but I'm not sure Keuchel receives the same love.

Five potential fits: Astros, Rangers, Padres, Angels, Yankees. Keuchel always seem to pitch well at Yankee Stadium (2.45 ERA, no home runs in 33 innings, and that doesn't include his wild-card start there in 2015).

 

I really hate the ballpark fallacy.

Keuchel also pitched pretty well agains the Yankees at MMP... perhaps its not just the ballpark, but the team he's facing.

For awhile, Keuchel was lights out at MMP... now he's not.

 

ESPN is going to fully expose him today.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...euchel-staying-fit-mlb-season-body-issue-2018

Spoiler: NSFW

 

It's time to start McHugh/Peacock/Devenski in a Tampa style bullpen game.

 

DallAss Keuchel

 

#toosoon

 

DaLLas

 

Yea

Except we W

 

He's a great innings-eater on an expiring deal place-holder for Forrest Whitley.

/s

 

Why waste three good relievers in one game?

 

He's losing millions of future earning potential with each start... honestly, he's approaching a level that he might as well accept a qualifying offer, and trying this whole free agent year thing again after next year (where he'll just have Verlander to compete against...)

 

This is why I think we might need to trade him before the deadline. Another team can gamble on the draft pick and we can get something while getting rid of our worst starter. Mchugh or Peacock would be fine there let alone the many pitchers we have in the minors doing well.

 

Why would a team give up any sort of major assets for him right now?

Why would the Astros trade him to another contender and possibly lose out on him somewhat course correcting and then the subsequent draft pick?

Like has been said earlier, the only viable Astros options are to pitch him or DL him.

 

He really does not strike me as the kind of guy who would quietly accept a demotion to the pen, especially considering his contract situation.

I'll give credit where due, he did a great job yesterday settling down, keeping them in the game, and not making the pen pitch 7+ innings.

 

Maybe Houston’s plan is to extend the QO to Keuchel, if he accepts, great, if not, they give that money to Morton.

 

His splits are weird this year... it's also similar to Yu Darvish's first inning struggles...maybe having an opener for Keuchel games will help him get mentally ramped up from the get go?

Used to be dominant at MMP... now is better away (3.54 ERA) than home (4.96 ERA).

#8 hitters are batting .324 (#7 hitters are .295) against him .... while everyone in the heart of the line up (3-6) is batting below .265.

Batters are batting over .310 against once it goes 1-0, but if he gets that first strike... below .220. First pitch in the count... batting average against is .327.

OPS against by leverage:
High - .541
Medium - .876
Low - .667

ERA by inning --
1st - 9.53
2nd to 4th - All below 2.75
5th to 7th -- All above 4.50

OPS against by time in the order --
1st - .792
2nd - .571
3rd - .857

 

daNDas

 

DK

1st time through: .796 OPS
--Opposing hitters know how he likes to throw to start games.
2nd time through: .571 OPS
--DK adjusts.
3rd time through: .872 OPS
--Hitters figure out what changed.


http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/31815/dallas-keuchel