Do you think the Texans fans' not wanting another Carr in Houston was a huge mistake?

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by deb4rockets, Sep 22, 2016.

  1. texian

    texian Member

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    He was using passing yards per game as a metric to rank QBs, which is silly.

    Here's Wilson's rankings in QBR and DYAR:

    2012: 8th in QBR, 8th in DYAR
    2013: 8th in QBR, 9th in DYAR
    2014: 14th in QBR, 13th in DYAR
    2015: 3rd in QBR, 3rd in DYAR
    2016: 13th in QBR, 14th in DYAR (high ankle sprain(WK1), MCL sprain(WK3), pec strain)

    Trying to use Russell Wilson as an example of why you don't need a good QB doesn't work.

    And the number of Texans QBs from 2014 to 2016 who ranked in the top half in QBR or DYAR = 0

    If you're interested in winning a Lombardi you stock & restock QBs. If you're more interested in staying employed as a GM you avoid spending draft capital on QBs and keep selling "these guys are better than you think" to the fanbase over and over.
     
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  2. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    @texian

    Yes exactly. Thank you Bobbythegreat

    http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/04/success_for_quarterbacks_picke.html

    Yes texian with your logic you would have swung and missed w/ Jake Locker, Weeden, EJ Manuel, Manziel &
    perhaps others. Keep in mind that many GM's have a mind set like Bill Parcels that if you miss on a QB
    drafted in the first round, you set your franchise back 10 years (a general rule).

    You would have drafted Jim Plunkett in
    the first round like New England did and then dumped him for another high
    drafted QB. Plunkett then went on to Oakland and won a Super Bowl. Isn't the idea to draft the QB high & he win
    for your team.

    Doug Williams was drafted in the first round by Tampa and stunk it up. He went on to Washington and
    won a Super Bowl. Isn't the idea to draft a QB high & he win for the team that drafted him.

    Trent Dilfer was drafted in the 1st round (6th pick) by Tampa and stunk it up. He went on to Baltimore for one
    year to start his journeyman career and won a Super Bowl. Isn't the idea to draft the QB high and win a Super
    Bowl with said QB.....not for them to go to another team and win it.

    RGIII was drafted 2nd pick of the 1st round. Cousins was suppose to be the guy they coached up to trade
    as an asset for picks. RGIII didn't make it because he never got the hang of being a pocket QB. Cousins
    was drafted in the fourth round. He seems to be doing ok.

    There are 101 ways to skin a cat. I don't care what the media says or brain washed you into thinking.

    There are 3 facets of the NFL game: Offense, Defense & Special teams. Patriots are well balanced
    and good at all 3. Their defense was #1 in points allowed, 4th in offense in yards per game (3rd in pts/gm),
    and PFF rated New England with the 2nd best special teams last season.

    I'm not so high on Garoppolo, others love him. Belichick has a way of making backups look good in their system.
    Matt Cassel looked great in 2008 when he started 15 games in place of Brady. He went on to Kansas City
    and looked like the 7th rounder he was. Garoppolo was suppose to start 4 games in place of Tom Brady
    due to suspension. He got hurt in the 2nd game (I believe he knows only a handful of the plays; but Belichick
    scripts plays going into the game that fit Garappolos strengths/plays). Brissell started vs the Texans
    and helped beat us with a handful of plays. Buffalo scouted those plays well going into the following week
    and beat New England and Brissell.

    About being at the right place at the right time. If Buffalo played New England with Brissell and limited
    scouting report and then Houston played New England them the following week with a
    scouting report; maybe
    things would have been different? I'm not a fan of "Air Raid " college
    Quarterbacks or "Read Option" Quarterbacks or college running QBs. They break a leg like
    RG3 vs Ngata (google Gnata breaks RGIII leg on you tube), or break a collar bone like
    Michael Vick did vs either Eagles or Washington during the year Vince Young called the
    Eagles a super team.

    Just FYI. Max Unger was traded after 2014 Super Bowl season for highly skilled TE
    Jimmy Graham.....they haven't sniffed the Super Bowl since. Same QB in this
    passing league (Russell Wilson with greater yards passing per game).








     
    #202 Jatman20, Jun 25, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2017
  3. ab0_bleedred

    ab0_bleedred Member

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    yes it was, now can we move on from this...
     
  4. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member

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    I think it's pretty solid to say that Seattle's success was less a product of what Russell Wilson was doing and more what the run game and defense were doing though. You can look at the last few seasons as their offense transitioned from being mostly based on the run game to one based on passing and as they've done that the team has gotten less successful the more they lean on Wilson.

    It doesn't mean he hasn't become a good QB, it's just that early on they asked almost nothing of him and they had great success, now they are asking more from him and despite the fact that he's coming through the results are worse.
     
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  5. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    I brought up Russell Wilson as an example that you don't have to draft a QB in the first round in this so called
    passing league. Dak Prescott was drafted in later rounds; but because the O-line was built to protect their
    100 million dollar QB who has been hurt often.....Dak fell into the prefect situation.

    Great O-Line, Des Bryant/ Witten/Terrence Williams & Escobar (with more than a year under his belt),
    Cole Beasley,......add Swaim (TE), Brice Butler who Dak made look good and vice-versa. Zek/Alfred Morris.

    Good all around balance goes a long way.
     
  6. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    You are conveniently leaving out that the Texans in 2014 implemented a new offensive scheme called the
    Erhardt-Perkins offensive scheme. One of the most complicated systems for any veteran QB to run.....much
    less a rookie QB which would have been Derek Carr.

    It's difficult to learn with the same teammates; but keep in mind the Texans have had wholesale changes
    in multiple units on this offense. Not just a different QB every year.

    Wide Receivers:
    2014: Andre Johnson/Hopkins/Keshawn Martin/Posey/Damarius Johnson
    2015: Hopkins/Cecil Shorts/Nate Washington/Strong/Damaris Johnson/Nwachukwu
    2016: Hopkins/Strong/Mumphrey/ [Fuller/Braxton Miller-rookies]

    RB's
    2014: Foster/Blue/Grimes
    2015: Blue/Grimes/Polk
    2016: Lamar Miller/Blue/Grimes/Hunt/Ervin (rookie)

    TE's
    2014: Graham/Griffin/Fiedorowicz (rookie)
    2015: Graham/Griffin/Fredorowicz
    2016: Fiedorowicz/Griffin/Stephen Anderson (rookie)

    Having the same players at the skill positions for two years in a row goes a long way. Savage was drafted
    in the 4th round and has the good height of about 6'4" to 6'5" and had a velocity of 57 mph.
    Kurt Warner won a Super Bowl and he was undrafted. Tony Romo had a long career as was considered
    above average as an undrafted QB.

    Savage will have:
    RB's: Lamar Miller/Blue/Foreman......Ervin or Hunt
    TE's: Fiedorowicz/Griffin/Anderson
    WR: Hopkins/Fuller/Strong/Braxton Miller/?Riley McCarron-Wes Welker type? or another

    Great defense. Special teams coach Izzo says the special teams will be much improved.

    Offensive line remains the big question.
    Can something like: D Brown/Allen/Martin/Mancz/Lamm or Slade work well enough. Can XSF improve?
    Jeff Allen lost 21 pounds....can he get back to his KC form? Who can man the RT position?

    You are assuming Derek Carr would succeed with all these variables and changes with the team.
    You had more respect for Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts than I did. Andre Johnson was past
    his prime and struggled with the Colts the next year.
     
  7. texian

    texian Member

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    @Jatman20

     
  8. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    Wow good question. That was a tough draft. I said in post #187 in retrospect I probably would have taken
    Zach Martin ahead of the Cowboys. He was selected 16th. I don't believe in getting a Guard in the first rd.

    As you can see I'm big on Bill Parcels general rules. He would say get your tackles in the first round but guards
    and centers in later rounds. His theory was a big tackle and center helps the big Guard. Parcels would say
    the Guard doesn't have to worry about speed rushers getting the jump on them. The tackle you draft
    in the 1st round can buy you time by playing Guard. This is why I was good with the Texans drafting Davenport
    anywhere in or after the 3rd rd. He can help us at Guard in a pinch....maybe tackle in a greater desperate pinch.

    So no to moving up for Zach. Looking at who was drafted. Texans were rumored to want Bridgewater at
    1st rd (#32) but the Vikings moved in front of the Texans & nabbed him. I was not a Bridgewater fan coming
    out of college. I probably would have moved back in the second rd and tried for Bitinio (OT pick 35 2nd rd)
    or Cyrus Kouandjio (OT pick 44th 2nd rd 6'7" 322 pounds) or Jack Mewhort (OT pick 59 2nd rd).
    Going back to Parcels rule they could play Guard or move Newton over to left guard.

    I probably would have missed on Kouandjio but Bitinio has done a good job with the Browns and Mewhort
    has done a decent job for the Colts. I make this move because I liked Garappolo/Logan Thomas/Savage
    as QB's in this draft in 3rd to mid rounds.

    This year I would have drafted possibly an OT if Bolles or Ramczyk were on the board. LB or safety if both
    Ramczyk/Bolles were taken since I believe they would start with the other very good Texans defenders.
    The front 7 will cover up a lot of flaws in the secondary. Falcons just went to the super bowl starting
    4 rookies on defense. Like drafting Savage or Logan Thomas in 2014 I would have tried getting Nate
    Peterman in 3rd to mid round.

    Since Savage and Weeden will probably be 1 & 2 on the depth chart &
    both are free agents. I'm not ready to pull
    the plug on both Savage & Weeden. Savage had a different OC each year in college and has probably only
    practiced with starters only 5 weeks in the 3 yrs he has been with the team. I think the injury thing is overblown.
    In 2015 preseason Savage looked better than both Mallett/Hoyer but sprained his shoulder in the final
    preseason game. The injury gets better after a month....he was held out the year so Hoyer and Mallett
    could get all the reps (since Rick Smith made moves to bring them). Other than that Savage has missed 2 weeks
    here and there. One concussion was called by the ref because Savage hesitated. Savage was pulled
    the rest of the season so that Rick Smith could see what his Brock Osweiler investment could do.
    Cut bait or move forward with him. I see the answer on that one......2nd rd pick to Browns.

    Savage can stay healthy by running the ball with Miller/Blue/Foreman and getting rid of the ball in 3 seconds
    or less in most occasions. I expect Fuller & Braxton to run better routes. Fiedorowicz/Griffin/Anderson
    to go from about 1100 yards last year to 1500 yards or better this year. Defense will hold teams to
    about 13 points per game while the offense goes from 17.9 pts per game with terrible Brock to about
    23 points per game. +10 differential. Weeden is not as bad as people think.

    As you said the Texans have waited a decade for drafting a top notch draft pick at QB.....they could have
    waited one more year. As the Patriots are better than last year due to FA's, trades & draft pick(s).
    Walterfootball.com had Trubisky around 8th, Watson 9th, wth Baker Mayfield 10th. Mahomes was 12th
    before adjustments to others staying in school. Josh Rosen, Darnold, Luke Falk, Josh Allen, Chase Litton
    were all rated higher. Lamar Jackson/Stidham/Nick Fitzgerald mixed in there. OTA's so far have had
    the red vests on the QB's with n contact. We will see how well Savage & Watson do at processing
    under fire while NFL pros are trying to take their heads off. This number 1 rated defense will test them.
    Pressure on coal can make diamonds or mush. Osweiler was mush.

     
  9. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    Cont @texian

    I know it's a long drawn out answer to your short question. Wanted you to see where I'm coming from....right or wrong.

    I doubt I would have drafted X Su'a Filo. Kinda smallish for NFL Guard and arm reach might not be up to par.
    Just by visual observation. I don't know his stats and numbers.

    After thinking about it. I believe the Patriots were trying to move up ahead of us to draft Bridgewater.
    At least that's what the rumor was. No telling where Garoppolo would have ended up at.

    Edit: That was my thinking at the time of the draft. If allowed to re draft with 20/20 hindsight: Carr
     
    #209 Jatman20, Jun 25, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2017
    texian likes this.
  10. DaGreatest

    DaGreatest Member

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    Hind sight 50/50 sucka No One saw this level of play coming. You're lying if you say otherwise, it was the right move and there's no regrets.

    Derek would've possibly played worse here because of the cloud of his big bro.
     
  11. mario_v

    mario_v Member

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    If Derek Carr can be a franchise superstar QB in one of the worst dysfunctional teams like the raiders, there's no doubt he would have been great here.
     
  12. oelman44

    oelman44 Member

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    There were DEFINITELY people on here who wanted Carr, and many were afraid we wouldn't take him out of association with his brother. I could understand not making a 1st-round selection no him, but when we had a chance to take him in the 2nd round... still haunts me.
     
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  13. mario_v

    mario_v Member

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    I remember fans were pissed when the Texans passed on Reggie bush and Vince young.

    There was a lot of pressure from the fans to take young or bush.

    The ONE time that the franchise actually listens to their fans and it ended up costing them one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
     
  14. oelman44

    oelman44 Member

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    I don't know which scenario is worse - that the front-office actually makes decisions based on fan pressure, or that they had the absolute wrong analysis of Derek Carr.
     
  15. houstonstime

    houstonstime Member

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    I wish Carr came her and had an identical start to his career. 0-11. 14TDs 9 INTs. and a 76 rating. Just to see this board blow up. I mean, yea he is good now. But it's mainly just hindsight and if you guys think you would have been ok with that start you are all absolutely fooling yourselve. Would have been calling for the FO's heads just like you are now.
     
  16. morpheus133

    morpheus133 Member

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    What's sad is they would blame this decision on fan pressure, but Rick Smith still has a job.
     
  17. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    We've had horribly wrong analysis on QBs for 4 years now
     
  18. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I don't believe either is necessarily true.

    I've said this before but there are roughly a billion things that can derail a QB. Derek Carr, here, would have been in a wholly unique environment that may have been difficult for him to maneuver his way around. I'm not suggesting he couldn't.... he may have. But, as @houstonstime mentioned, had he started here the same way he did in Oakland, there would have been a full-on revolt and it's possible Carr would have been swallowed whole by it. You just never know. The difference between success and failure at this level is razor-thin.

    I'm not arguing either way - but I do appreciate the Texans considering the ramifications.
     
  19. Newlin

    Newlin Member

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    I really don't know if Texan fans didn't want another Carr. I don't believe they wanted him with our first pick. But, I think most fans would have been OK with the Texans selecting him in the second round.
     
  20. oelman44

    oelman44 Member

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    Thats a good point, but the Raiders were a dumpster fire at the time he was drafted and the Texans had a pretty good supporing cast. Your right about it being a very unique situation with his brother, and that it might no have worked out. I think theres a good chance it would have though
     
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