1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Detailed stats breakdown of Rockets games officiated by Foster

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Lawlruschang, Feb 22, 2019.

  1. Lawlruschang

    Lawlruschang Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2013
    Messages:
    541
    Likes Received:
    600


    Pls upvote reddit thread for visibility, will be cross-posting to r/nba though I expect it to be suppressed by hataz.


    Rockets record 2017-2019

    w/o Foster: 161-71 (.694)

    w Foster: 9-9 (.500)

    % change in win rate: -28%

    -28% reduction in wins would put the 2019 Rockets at 24-34, 13th in the West ahead of only the Grizzlies and Suns.

    -28% reduction in wins would put the 2018 Rockets at 46-36, from 1st seed to missing the playoffs at 9th

    -28% reduction in wins would put the 2017 Rockets at 40-42, tied for the 9th seed and missing the playoffs

    -28% reduction in wins would put the 2016 73-9 Warriors at 52.5-29.5, 4th seed in the West behind the Clippers



    Rockets point differential 2017-2019 (regular season only)

    overall: +5.8

    Foster: -2.4

    net change: -8.2

    -8.2 differential currently separates the 1st seed Warriors (+7) and the 9th seed Kings (-1.2)

    -8.2 differential in 2018 is roughly the difference between 1st seed Rockets (+8.5) and 10th seed Clippers (even)

    -8.2 differential in 2018 is greater than the difference between the champion Warriors (+6) and pre-Lebron Lakers (-1.5)



    The average win percentage of Rockets opponents over the 18 games Foster officiated: 57.7%, equivalent to a 47-win team. Western conference teams with a 47-35 record:

    2018 Spurs (Rockets 3-1 reg. season)

    2018 Wolves (Rockets defeated 4-1 in playoffs)

    2017 Thunder (Rockets defeated 4-1 in playoffs)

    overall: 11-3 (.786)

    9-9?



    The numbers are especially puzzling when isolating home vs away (inc. playoffs):

    at home, no Foster: 90-27 (.770)

    at home, w Foster: 5-5 (.500)

    % change in win rate: -35.1%

    -35.1% reduction in wins would put the current NBA leading Bucks at 29-29, tied for 6th in the East and 10th in the West

    -35.1% reduction in wins would put the 2018 Rockets at 42-40, tied for 10th with the Clippers

    -35.1% reduction in wins would put the champion 2018 Warriors at 38-44

    -35.1% reduction in wins would take the 73-9 Warriors to a 47-35 record



    on road, no Foster: 71-44 (.617)

    on road, w Foster : 4-4 (.500)

    % change in win rate: -19%

    -not as bad, but still bad. In the 3 games vs teams with a .500 or worse record, the Rockets had a -4.3 point differential.
     
    #1 Lawlruschang, Feb 22, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2019
  2. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2005
    Messages:
    21,930
    Likes Received:
    8,186
    Good info.
     
  3. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2002
    Messages:
    15,376
    Likes Received:
    1,020
    So, either Scott Fosters a grudge - - or is he a Gamblin' Man? (Somehow incompetent didn't rise into the query.)
     
  4. DreamShook

    DreamShook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    41,598
    Likes Received:
    43,128
    I would up vote, but the link isn't working.
     
  5. Matt78777

    Matt78777 Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2005
    Messages:
    1,292
    Likes Received:
    686
    Part of me hope he gets assigned to officiate a game in houston, preferably on national tv.
     
  6. lnchan

    lnchan Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,962
    Likes Received:
    3,166
    ESPN pushing the opposite narrative. And feeding trolls while at it...

    My solution:
    [​IMG]
     
  7. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Messages:
    9,186
    Likes Received:
    2,785
    I have never posted a single thing on Reddit that hasn’t been downvoted to high hell because it was pro-Houston.

    Please, all you clutchfans who might ever go on reddit: please delete your accounts and boycott that site. Nothing good will come from you posting on it. Just abandon ship like I did. I’m done with that cesspool; May everyone on r/nba go to hell.
     
    34to11, Lawlruschang and pauebtg like this.
  8. TimV

    TimV Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2018
    Messages:
    27
    Likes Received:
    26
    These stats are useless without more information. What are the 18 games he reffed? What is the winning percentage of the teams that the Rockets faced in these games? Was the home/road split even?

    In other words, this is just a lot of data with insufficient context to make any conclusions. The 9-9 record might be easily explainable by this being biased by a road-heavy load, more playoff games, or primarily against other really good teams. On the other hand, it might be pretty damning if these were more likely to be home games, regular season, and against losing teams.
     
    durvasa likes this.
  9. Severe Rockets Fan

    Severe Rockets Fan Takin it one stage at a time...
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2001
    Messages:
    5,332
    Likes Received:
    911
    I wonder what the Warriors winning percentage is with Foster.
     
  10. Jump Ship

    Jump Ship Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2018
    Messages:
    780
    Likes Received:
    395
    Damn reading the r nba post with 6.6 k upvotes then this one with 0 is r nba in a nutshell. They hate the houston rockets.
     
    #10 Jump Ship, Feb 22, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2019
    Lawlruschang and BigShasta like this.
  11. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2012
    Messages:
    12,697
    Likes Received:
    11,454
  12. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    31,888
    Likes Received:
    6,092
  13. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2001
    Messages:
    12,820
    Likes Received:
    5,941
    I'm compiling data from this season on the games Foster reffed and let's just say, for the most part, the stars in the game ended up with a higher-than-average number of fouls called on them.

    I'm only in November right now.
     
    Lawlruschang likes this.
  14. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2005
    Messages:
    21,930
    Likes Received:
    8,186
    Get me a job where you work bro. We can look at Rockets stats and write Otto Porter to Houston fanfics every day.
     
    Lawlruschang and steddinotayto like this.
  15. Jake Tower

    Jake Tower Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    5,663
    Likes Received:
    3,605
    Take that for data
     
  16. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2001
    Messages:
    12,820
    Likes Received:
    5,941
    Hahaha Being an IT consultant with work from home flexibility gives you plenty of time to do stuff like this.
     
  17. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2012
    Messages:
    12,697
    Likes Received:
    11,454
    Alright I'm leaving work soonish I'll figure out the teams for you
     
  18. lnchan

    lnchan Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,962
    Likes Received:
    3,166
    Foster served as referee for 7 of the 15 losses by the Rockets in the playoffs since 2015, which is 46.7% of the losses... but he only served as referee for 21.1% of Rockets playoff games. Rockets record outside of Foster in the playoffs is 18-8. It is possible that Foster is not biased but rather Harden/Paul have let this idea get into their head. But considering Foster has taken 134 calls from Donaghy, and has consistently ranked in the bottom 3 referees in the league... that is highly doubtful.
     
    #18 lnchan, Feb 22, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2019
    Lawlruschang likes this.
  19. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2001
    Messages:
    12,820
    Likes Received:
    5,941
    I'm not done compiling the data yet but the games that Foster reffed this year, the stars got more fouls called on them in those games than what they average from game to game.

    Conspiracy theory in me thinks that he's trying to even the playing field by calling more fouls on the star player.
     
  20. Ericonomist

    Ericonomist Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2011
    Messages:
    485
    Likes Received:
    149
    Good info but we need to show that the teams that we play against in Foster games are not systematically better than non-Foster games. Otherwise it could be just rockets perform worse against better teams. We better also show that he doesn't just hate everyone- if this is the case then every team performs worse when he officiates and it all sort of averages out.

    Not that I think these are likely, but I just have been in academia for too long and these are the comments I expect to receive if i am telling the story that Foster hates us.
     
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now