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Despite limited minutes, there should be a ton of value in having Asik backing up Howard

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Aug 5, 2013.

  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Morey is apparently holding on to Asik for nothing less than a star. And IMO, for good reason. No, Asik will not be playing 30mpg next season. Most likely he'll be playing 15~18mpg. But if you think that's wasting Asik's talent, you'd be wrong. Because having a stud backup center makes your center better.

    There aren't a lot of history when it comes to a team having a star center backed up by another starting caliber center. But in recent memory, there have been two cases, Howard/Gortat, and Noah/Asik. In both cases, there was a significant change in defense when Gortat/Asik were back up centers vs. before and after.

    Actual stats spoilered for those who don't care. Conclusion is that everyone benefit from having each other on D. Generally quite significantly.
    First example: Orlando with Howard/Gortat

    Gortat played ~2.5 years in Orlando, starting getting minutes in his 2nd season. Two years before that, Orlando DRtg was 104~105(rank 6th in NBA). Howard himself had DRtg of 99. Once Gortat prospered, Orlando Defense was 102~103(1st and 3rd in NBA) while Howard's DRtg dropped to ~95(led the NBA for 3 years). Gortat himself had a ~99 DRtg in Orlando, and ~105 in Phoenix since.

    Second Example: Bulls with Noah/Asik

    Unfortunately, Asik and Thibs both got to Chicago at the same time. So it's debatable how much their defense sucked before had more to do with Del Negro or not having Asik. Suffice to say the difference was huge. But we can look at Chicago post Asik.

    In 2 seasons with Asik, Chicago DRtg was 98~100(1st and 2nd in the NBA). Noah's DRtg was 96~97. Last year, Chicago's DRtg was 103(6th in NBA) and Noah's DRtg was 99. Asik's DRtg with the Bulls were incredible, 97 and 92. In Houston his DRtg rose to 103.

    This should make sense even when we watch games. Interior players often debate whether they should challenge or backup off, in fear of the whistle. But take out that fear, and the play obviously becomes better. Imagine Howard and Asik both aggressively knocking every guard that dares to come into the paint. Knowing they have 12 fouls between them to do so. Just the threat of rejection may cause opponents to settle for more jumpshots and decrease their efficiency. And our perimeter players can play much more aggressively with much less fear of opposing layups.

    Assuming the Rockets don't trade Asik, I predict top-5 defense.
     
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  2. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    Good post. Agreed. But it's the offense might be worrisome, not the defense.
     
  3. RedDynasty

    RedDynasty Member

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    Great post. Thanks for the analysis!
     
  4. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    Also, you need to keep in mind that 48 mins of elite paint protection is the only thing proven to stop LBJ and the Heat. LBJ is the best player on the planet, getting your own stars and asking them to take him, Wade and Bosh on is a plan for failure as OKC and Chicago found out.

    On the other hand, teams like Pacers with a good 7 ft center gave the Heat a good fight, Spurs with TD and Splitter pushed them to the brink, and Dallas with both Chandler and Haywood actually beat them. It doesn't matter if Asik only plays 15-20 mins a night, this is not worse than getting a 3rd star and having him take the shots left over from DH and Harden. The Howard insurance and 48 mins of elite paint protection is totally worth 28M combined, IMHO.
     
  5. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    I would not be surprised if McHale starts Asik at PF
     
  6. Morlock O

    Morlock O Member

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    Excellent observation!

    I would not worry too much about the offense... last year we were 6th in Ortg... a little drop of from that while immensely increasing the defense is still a net plus...
     
  7. Hakeemtheking

    Hakeemtheking Member

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    Good post, OP.

    I see threads where Anderson gets traded for Asik and I just do not see this happening. While a very good stretch 4, guys like Anderson are MUCH easier to be found than players with Asik's defensive skills.

    Morey is going to hold on to Asik for as long as he needs to until he gets that phone for a trade with at least similar value.
     
  8. bmd

    bmd Member

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    How would the offense be worrisome??

    The only player of value the Rockets lost was Delfino.

    The offense was one of the best in the NBA last year, and everybody except for Delfino is back.

    Then Dwight Howard is added, which should improve the offense. I mean, Asik had no offensive ability. So he couldn't possibly be worse on offense.

    At worst, the Rockets' offense should be the same as last year.

    But in my opinion, it will improve a lot in the half court.
     
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  9. luckytxn

    luckytxn Member

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    Yes but our 4 spot last year was the weakest link and right now we have done nothing there to improve it. Asik is a luxury we can go without when we are one starter away from being championship contenders.
     
  10. raskol

    raskol Contributing Member

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    Good post. Agreed. Asik at backup gives us a fierce defensive presence in the paint all game long. I feel for Asik a bit, as a competitor you'd always want to start and play a lot of minutes, but yahoos for our team.
    I do believe, however, that Adik will play near 25 mins + a game to keep him happy and to maximize our talent. I don't know if Howard would like guarding pfs for 10 minutes a game, but we'd need that as well. Everyone should sacrifice a bit even our two big dogs.
    Harden must take less possessions to feed Howard, Howard must slide to the 4 spot at tunes to accommodate Asik, Parsons and Lin must defer to our top stars, and Asik has to come off the bench. If we can do that without complaining but wholeheartedly, that's what championships are made of; talent + the mindset of sacrificing for the team. I see big things in our future. Go Rockets!
     
  11. jimmyv281

    jimmyv281 Member

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    Robert Horry would have been a perfect fit...
     
  12. bmd

    bmd Member

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    That is true. The 4 was the weakest link... but not every position has to have a great player. Some players need very specific duties when they are in the game.

    I think having one of the top centers in the world on the floor at all times is extremely valuable.

    Smith, Motiejunas, Jones, and a small-ball player can fill the 4 spot at any given time depending on what McHale wants to do with the line-up.

    Say, for example, the Rockets trade Asik for Ryan Anderson. Last year, the Rockets were one of the worst teams when Asik rested on the bench and Greg Smith was playing the 5. So imagine Dwight leaving the game to rest. Whatever value Anderson brings, the team loses when Greg Smith has to play the 5.

    But if we keep both Dwight and Asik, the Rockets are at worst as good as they were last year with Dwight on the court. Except the Rockets won't have that dip in production when Howard goes to the bench. Because Asik comes into the game, and that is where the Rockets will really make their runs.

    They will wear the other team out. The Rockets having an elite center in the game for a full 48 is an incredible advantage.
     
  13. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    Neither would I.
     
  14. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I wouldn't be surprised if McHale starts Lin at PF.
     
  15. bmd

    bmd Member

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    He's put so many different lineups on the floor.
     
  16. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Perhaps. But PF position on this team is the least important position. The center position is the most important position. Ranking position importances.

    1. Center - because our perimeter defenders are mediocre and they gamble. Hence, interior defense is by far the most important aspect of this team.
    2. SG - Because we have Harden
    3. PG - If only because PGs will initiate some P&Rs and their defense is more important(it's a PG league)
    4. SF - mostly a 3&D position that runs the court, but important in defending the best opposing wing player so Harden is less strained
    5. PF - Similar to SF but less ball handling duties, so slightly less important.

    Our current offense doesn't really feature the PF position. Will a Ryan Anderson change that? I'd say no. I can't imagine the Rockets forgo a Lin P&R so Anderson can try to overpower some tweener in the post. Will a LMA change that? Yes. And that's why Morey will trade Asik for LMA, but not Anderson.
     
  17. kevC

    kevC Contributing Member

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    Yao-Mutombo?
     
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  18. 2016Champions

    2016Champions Member

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    Fun fact: Gortat never averaged more than 13.4 minutes per game in Orlando.
     
  19. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    The problem with this is that it requires so much more cohesiveness among players. The Rockets will basically have to run a zone with Asik and Howard. While they would run more of a man-defense with only one of them. On offense, the Rockets would have to run some sort of triangle so both Howard and Asik can share the space inside the paint, while they run their typical spread offense the rest of the time.

    The execution will suffer when you have to change your style mid-game so often. I don't think the Rockets coaches would do that, especially for a young team.
     
  20. luckytxn

    luckytxn Member

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    Lol


    I agree. Never said we needed a great player at the 4 spot. We need a decent to good. Just someone that can be consistent and preferably defense minded. Anderson can stretch the floor but his lack of defense means Howard will have to work a lot harder on defense at the basket and incur more fouls.

    I knew someone would mention TJones, DMo or Smith. They may do the job and they looked like they would but when given a chance last year they eventually failed us. That makes them question marks right now and we are not championship caliber with that big of a question at a very important roster spot. More than likely we just need a decent veteran to come in and hold the spot until one of the kids can fill it. Hopefully also help in coaching the kids.
     

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